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Tuesday July 23, 2013 - 03:44:59 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 23-Jul-2013 -0341 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Equities are up but face some danger of near-term correction/ consolidation.

The Dow (15545.55) ended absolutely flat yesterday. We are bullish for 15900, but if it doesn't move up soon, it could dip towards 15300. Existing Home Sales are reported to have fallen yesterday.

Asia-Pac is all up handsomely, including the Shanghai (2034, +1.46%) and Nikkei (14770, +0.77%). The Shanghai has bounced back after a dip to 1975 yesterday, but faces a crucial Resistance near current levels from its overall downtrend. The Nikkei is continuing to remain above 14400, at least for now, but faces Resistance near 15000.

The Nifty (6031.80) is maintaining Support at 6000 for now, but needs to move higher to avoid a corrective dip towards 5900.

 

COMMODITIES
Commodities, especially Gold, are strong all around.

Brent (108.29) has held well to its Support at 108 levels. We remain bullish for 109-110 while 108 holds.

Gold (1336.22) has again risen sharply since yesterday. Further rise to 1350-1375 can be expected this week.

Silver (20.45) is at a crucial level. Could target 21.00-50. Confirmation in the form of a break above 20.60 is needed.

Copper (3.1895) is in an uptrend in the near term and is rising steadily towards the 3.20 mark. It will be crucial to see whether it breaks the 3.20-25 mark or it succumbs.


CURRENCIES
Dollar is weaker against the Major currencies. It could strengthen against the Emerging currencies.

The Euro (1.3200) contiues to rise targeting 1.3270, in line with expectations. The Pound (1.5370) is also trading higher, with chances of surpassing 1.54 now to target 1.55. The recovery in the Pound from the low of 1.4813 (09-June) is very significant.

Dollar-Yen (99.57) trades below 100 again. It has been consolidating sideways between 98-102 for the last 4 weeks. It could slowly dip a bit towards 98.90 in the near term. The Euro-Yen Cross (131.46) is in a good uptrend and this suggests that Dollar-Yen may see only shallow dips.

The Aussie (0.9275) has already met our week-target. We have to see whether it can rise past crucial Resistance at 0.9300 or not. If so it can target 0.9365.

Dollar-Rupee close higher near 59.72 yesterday. The Dollar shows signs of wanting to bounce against the other R-currencies also. This could work to pull Dollar-Rupee higher as well. But, we have to see what the RBI does to try and keep the market down.

 

INTEREST RATES
The US 10-Yr (2.48%) trades steady below 2.50%. We have to be ready to see at least a small bounce towards 2.52%. Although Existing Home Sales (5080K) dipped yesterday, it remains in an overall uptrend. The market will look forward to the New Home Sales tomorrow.

The India 10-Yr (8.13%) is again trading at the level seen on 16-July. The market seems to be wanting another 25bp rise in yields.

The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.20%) is slowly moving up in favour of the Euro.


DATA TODAY
No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY

US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.08 K...Previous 5.14 K

 

Forex Trading News

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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