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Tuesday July 23, 2013 - 11:01:47 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Traders look for direction in cautious session EU Market Update: Traders look for direction in cautious session
Tue, 23 Jul 2013 5:43 AM EST

- China Premier Li vows no hard economic land and pledges GDP will not fall below 7.0%; Shanghai closes up 2%
- Japan Govt raises its economic assessment for the third straight month. Sees domestic economy steadily picking up towards a self-sustainable recovery; Nikkei Up +1.8%
- Spain Bill auction results seen as solid sell just over the upper end of 3.5B at lowering borrowing costs
- Bank of Spain sees Q2 GDP improving to -0.1% from -0.5% q/q aided by exports (but still would be the 8th straight quarterly contraction)

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Jun CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (FI) Finland Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 10.8% prior
- (FR) France July Business Confidence: 95 v 94e; Production Outlook Indicator: -30 v -42e; Own-Company Production Outlook: +1 v +2e; Business Survey Overall Demand: -14 v -22 prior
- (DK) Denmark July Consumer Confidence Indicator: 3.7 v 3.5e
- (ZA) South Africa May Leading Indicator: 101.5 v 102.0 prior
- (EU) ECB 154M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 18M prior; 78.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 76.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TW) Taiwan Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.4% v +2.8%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (PL) Poland Jun Retail Sales M/M: 1.5% v 1.1%e v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.1%e
- (PL) Poland Jun Unemployment Rate: 13.2% v 13.2%e
- (UK) Jun BBA Loans for House Purchase: 37.3K v 38.3Ke
- (RO) Romania Jun Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 3.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (UK) DMO to sell 4,0B in 0.125% 2044 Gilt via syndicate; guidance seen +5.75-6.25bps vs. 2042 I/L Gilt; Order book was around 9.0B
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 1.785B vs. 1.5-2.5B indicated range in 2021 and 2042 DSL bonds
- Sold 1.0B in 3.25% 2021 DSL; Avg Yield: 1.538% v 2.238% prior
- Sold 785M in 3.75% 2042 DSL; Avg Yield 2.581% v 2.408% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.52B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold 920M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.442% v 0.869% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.0x v 2.94x prior; Max Yield: 0.469% v 0.900% prior; Tail: 2.7bps v 3.1bps prior
- Sold 2.6B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.152% v 1.441% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.42x prior; Max Yield: 1.175% v 1.490% prior; Tail: 2.3bps v 4.9bps prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 102.3B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 105Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.23x
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF758.8M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.087% v -0.083% prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2031 and Bonds


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,639,
DAX +0.20% at 8,350, CAC-40 +0.20% at 3,946, IBEX-35 +16% at 8,091, FTES MIB +1% at 16,390, SMI -0.10% at 7,918, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,693

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, led by gains in Spain's IBEX-35, tracking the recent advances in US and Asian equities. European banks are mostly higher, led by gains in the Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. Resource related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in Chinese equities. US companies due to report corporate earnings on Tuesday include Dupont, Freeport McMoran, UPS and Apple .

- UK Movers [Petropavlovsk +8% (H1 gold production rose y/y), Premier Foods +8% (positive outlook), PZ Cussons +2.5% (FY profits and sales rose y/y), Ladbrokes +1.5% (broker commentary); Tullow Oil -7% (drilling update), Imagination Technologies -7% (speculation related to contract loss), Carpetright -2% (Q1 UK sales declined), InterContinental Hotels -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Dialog Semi +7% (guided Q3 Revs higher q/q), ProsiebenSat +3.5% (reaffirmed outlook), Sartorius +2% (H1 profits rose y/y), Rheinmetall +2% (contract award); Celesio -2.5% (share sale speculation), Leoni -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Bouygues +7% (talks with Vivendi related to network sharing), Sartorius Stedim +3% (raised forecast), Vivendi +3% (asset sale); STMicroelectronics -5.5% (Q2 results below ests)]
- Spain movers [Gas Natural +1.5% (H1 profits above ests)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch +2% (H1 results above ests); Sulzer -12% (cautious outlook)]
- The Netherlands movers [KPN +6% (asset sale)]

- ECB Chief Economist Praet (Belgium) reiterates view that interest rates could be lowered further, as clarified by its forward guidance message

- Bank of Spain (BOS) Monthly Report stated that it saw Q2 GDP at -0.1% vs. -0.5% q/q aided by exports with YoY GDP at -1.8% vs. -2.0% prior (**Note: in its Jun report Bank of Spain noted Q2 data showed improved demand indicators with indicators pointed to a relief in the economic contraction)
- Spain PM Rajoy to appear in Parliament on Thursday, Aug 1st at 9:00 am local time to explain the Barcenas case
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga reiterated view that around early Sept G20 (St Petersburg) is a good time to make a decision on the sales tax. Judgment to come after revised GDP data
- China President Xi Jinping commented that current challenge to China was to deepen reform (*Reminder: On July 17th IMF commented that China growth could fall to 4% after 2018 without further reforms)

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite received some tailwinds after China's Premier Li pledged to keep its GDP growth above 7%. The FX markets had the USD maintain a steady/soft tone.
- The EUR/USD was probing the upper corridor of the recent weekly range and hovered around the 1.32 level. The softer US housing data on Monday took some wind out of the sail on any imminent Fed tapering in coming quarters. Nonetheless the pair had some difficulties staying above the 1.32B handle as the NY morning approached
- The GBP/USD was edging towards 1.54 level and supported by the euphoria of the new royal heir. Dealers also attributed the firmer GBP currency to a Deutsche Bank analyst note that the BOE could start raising rates by the end of 2014. The softer BBA House Loan data provided some headwinds in the pair.

Political/In the Papers:
-(ES) Spain PM Rajoy: Confirms he will face questions in Parliament regarding the PP corruption scandal
-(ES) Spain opposition Socialist Party leader Rubalcaba: 'Rajoy's trust factor is pretty much zero'; Wants to present a vote of no confidence and ensuing debate to Congress as well as a vote calling for PM Rajoy's resignation - interview in El Pais
-(ES) Spain Fin Min De Guindos: Reiterates expectation for Q2 GDP near flat; labor market expected to improve beyond the normal seasonal impacts
-(CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: Bottom line for China 2013 GDP is 7%; Would not allow China economy to sink below that level - Chinese press; Calls for investment in weak sectors.
-(CN) China may release rail financing reform by end of year - financial press
-(JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Rise in equities prices reflecting positive developments in real economy; Equities rising considerably in positive response to weakening Yen.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers hold Meeting in Brussels
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Zero 2014 Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) EU's Tajani with Barnier
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.0B in 6-month bills
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision:
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 112.9 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 25bps to 4.00%
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.4%e v -0.3% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 09:00 (US) May House Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:00 Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Post Rate Decision Policy Statement
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Current Account: -$5.0Be v -$6.4B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.5Be v $3.9B prior
- 09:30 (CO) Colombia central bank Gov Uribe speaks in Bogota
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 9e v 8 prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone July Advance Consumer Confidence: -18.3e v -18.8 prior

- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 4-week and 52-Week Bills
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Jun CAGED Formal Job Creation: 97.3Ke v 72.0K prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Trade Balance: $995Me v $1.3B prior
- 19:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Bank Lending Survey
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Merchandise Trade Balance: -155.7Be v -993.9B prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -594.7Be v -821.0B prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q2 CPI Q/Q: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior
- 21:45 (CN) China July HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: 48.2e v 48.2




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