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Tuesday July 23, 2013 - 20:27:31 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex - Westpac Morning Report

Morning Report Wednesday 24 July  2013

 


Market wrap
Global market sentiment: US data capped equities, interest rates and the US dollar. A manufacturing survey for the Richmond region showed activity contracted, sending the S&P500 about 0.5% lower. It is currently flat on the day. Eurozone consumer confidence was slightly better than expected, which depressed the US dollar further.

Interest rates: US 10yr treasury bond yields initially rose from 2.49% to 2.53% following growth-supportive comments from China, but completely retraced following the US data. A 2yr auction was mixed, awarded at market yield but with a low 3.0 bid-cover ratio (vs 3.6 average).

Australian 3yr government bonds yields rose from 2.63% to 2.67%, while the10yr rose from 3.67 to 3.70%.

Currencies: The US dollar index extended a multi-week decline, making a fresh one-month low. EUR rose from 1.3164 to 1.32239 – a one-month high. USD/JPY rose and fell from 99.40 to 100.20 to 99.40. AUD initially fell from 0.9280 to 0.9223 but rose to 0.9299 following the US data. NZD similarly fell from 0.8009 to 0.7955 but rebounded to 0.8003. AUD/NZD rose from 1.1580 to 1.1620.

Economic wrap
US Richmond Fed factory index fell 18 pts to −11 in July, below even Westpac’s bottom end forecast of 0. The detail showed shipments down 16 pts to −15, orders down 24 pts also to −15 and employment remained at 0 for a second month in July. This district survey contrasts with the stronger NY and Philly Fed indices in July, but in the past has often signalled imminent turning points in those other surveys.

US house prices rose 0.7% in May according to the FHFA index, for a 7.3% annual rate. The supply of available homes for sale was the lowest in June for 12 years according to yesterday’s MBA home sales report.

Canadian retail sales jumped 1.9% in May, their fastest rise in more than three years, buoyed by a 4.3% jump in auto sales although ex auto sales were up a solid 1.2%, with nine of the 11 major storetypes recording gains. Q2 GDP forecasts are being revised higher as a consequence, with the Bank of Canada’s 1% annualised forecast now seen as unrealistically pessimistic.

Euroland consumer confidence rose from -18.8 to -17.4 in July’s advance report, its highest in almost two years. Meanwhile French business confidence rose to a 15 month high, at odds with recent business lobby group resistance to the taxation policies of the government which it is claimed are restraining investment and competitiveness.

Market outlooks
Event risk today: There’s plenty of event risk today. First, there’s NZ’s trade balance. Then, in perhaps the day’s highlight, is Australia’s CPI for Q2. Westpac’s expectation for the core measure is 0.5% qoq, in line with consensus. Shortly after that we have China’s manufacturing PMI (HSBC version).

NZD/USD 1 day: This multi-day upward correction continues to unfold, 0.8135 the next major upside target.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Following completion of this upward correction (somewhere between 0.81 and 0.83), the downtrend since April should resume and could run as far as the low 0.70’s. However, we need to see 0.7680 break down for confirmation. Fed tapering expectations will remain a depressant and NZ’s economic data momentum is likely to slow during the next few months.
AUD/USD 1 day: This multi-day upward correction continues to unfold, today targeting a break above 0.9300 en-route to 0.9345 next.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Following completion of this upward correction (which could reach 0.96), the downtrend since April should resume and targets the 0.80’s. The Australian data flow is unsupportive, and the RBA is likely to ease further to 2.0% by Q1 2014.
AUD/NZD 1 day: 1.1640 above is vulnerable today.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The downtrend since March remain strong and targets 1.1500 next, possibly as far as 1.1100. Relative fundamentals (e.g. RBA easing to 2.0% vs RBNZ stuck at 2.5%) favour the NZD medium term.
NZ swap yields 1 day: In response to changes in US and Australian bond yields overnight (see above) the 2yr should open 1bp higher at 3.19%. The 10yr should open up 3bp at 4.53%. Our outlook for the week ahead is for NZ interest rates to fall.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact. By late-2013 we would expect to see the 2yr above 3.40% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening in 2014. The US-influenced 10yr yield has also confirmed its uptrend and targets 4.68% next.

 

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 July 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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