Wednesday July 24, 2013 - 03:37:49 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 24-Jul-2013 -0335 GMT
The Dow (1556.74) has moved up. Expectation still remains bullish for 15900.
Asia-Pac is up. The Shanghai (2036.847) has moved up after a low at 2031 yesterday. It faces crucial resistance at current levels. The Nikkei (14678.53) is down still remaining above 14400.
The Nifty (6077.80) is up. It needs to move higher to maintain the up trend.
Brent (108.28) made a low of 107.56 yesterday but is trading along the support levels now. Could close lower today too. Overall, we still remain bullish towards 110.
Silver (20.33) has got a strong channel resistance at current levels. With the overall trend remaining bearish, this could just hold and we just might see a fall towards 18 over the next 2-3 weeks. Any break above 20.60 levels, could indicate that it could touch 21.00-50.
Gold (1341.62) looks bullish towards 1375 for the week.
Copper (3.174) did make a high of 3.21 but could not sustain. With the near term trend remaining bullish, a break above 3.22 this week can take it towards 3.30. Else we could find it ranging sideways between 3.14-3.17-3.19.
The Euro (1.3207) has not registered much gains since yesterday but remains bullish in our eyes for an eventual test of 1.33. The Pound (1.5360) has moved sideways since yesterday, but has good Support at 1.53 and good chances of seeing 1.5435-50.
Dollar-Yen (99.70) has also been quiet and is trading sideways between 99.20-100.00 for now. The outlook is unclear at the moment. Like yesterday, the Euro-Yen (131.73) remains bullish overall with Support at 130.00.
The Aussie (0.9259) has seen profit-taking on its foray to 0.9318 today. It could be vulnerable to a fall back into the 0.93-91 range unless some strong buying pulls it up past 0.9300.
Contrary to our fears, the R-currencies have actually strengthened a bit since yesterday instead of weakening. Dollar-Rupee (59.77) is being shown near 59.62 on the Offshore markets.
The US 10-yr (2.52%) has moved up to exactly the level we mentioned yesterday. Some more upside to 2.55% could be seen, but the Yield might start dipping again from there. Today's US New Home Sales (Exp +482K) will be an important data to watch.
The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.19%) continues to inch up in favour of the Euro. The Indian 10-Yr (8.22%) has moved up further and can rise some more. The Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (5.73%) can move up some more towards 5.85%.
1:30 GMT or 7:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.40 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 482 K ...Previous 476 K
No major data release yesterday.
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