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Wednesday July 24, 2013 - 10:03:32 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Major European PMI data hints that worse might be behind Europe at this time EU Market Update: Major European PMI data hints that worse might be behind Europe at this time
Wed, 24 Jul 2013 5:36 AM EST

- China July HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI registers 11-month low; 3rd consecutive month in contraction (47.7 v 48.2e)
- Japan Adj Trade Balance registers smallest deficit in 10 months
- Australia Q2 CPI mixed, with headline slightly below estimates and trimmed mean slightly above
- Indian yields surge at short term Bill auction
- Major European PMI data hints that worse is behind Europe at this time

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Jun PPI M/M: -0.1 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.2 v -0.4% prior
- (FR) France July Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 49.8 v 48.8e; PMI Services: 48.3 v 47.5e
- (ES) Spain May Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -24.9% v -21.6% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -29.0% v -18.1% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 0.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech July Business Confidence: 0.9 v 0.9 prior; Consumer Confidence Index: -20.5 v -19 prior; Composite: -3.4 v -3.1 prior
- (EU) ECB 39M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 154M prior; 76.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 78.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany July Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 50.3 v 49.2e (first growth in 4 months); PMI Services: 52.5 v 50.7e, third month of expansion
- (EU) Euro Zone July Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 50.1v 49.1e (first growth in two years); PMI Services: 49.6 v 48.7e; PMI Composite: 50.4 v 49.1e; first growth in 18 months

- (IT) Italy May Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -2.9% prior
- (EU) ECB Bank Lending Survey
- (ZA) South Africa Jun CPI (all items) M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.8%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Non-EU Trade Balance: +2.5B v +3.0B prior
- (IS) Iceland Jun Wage Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.5% prior
- (IS) Iceland July CPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR113B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills; Yields move sharply higher
- EFSF opened its books to sell 5-year Euro-denominated benchmark bond; Order book around 3.0B with guidance tightened to +15bps over mid-swap
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 8-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB7.49B vs. RUB10B indicated in Jan 2023 OFZ bonds; Yield: 7.19% v guidance of 7.15-7.20%


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,640
, DAX +0.60% at 8,363, CAC-40 +0.90% at 3,957, IBEX-35 +1% at 8,150, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 16,357, SMI +0.90% at 7,964, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,692

- European equity markets are broadly higher, tracking the recent gains in US equity markets. Also, better than expected German and French manufacturing PMI data, offset weaker than expected Chinese PMI data. European banks are broadly higher, led by shares of BNP and Commerzbank. However, the declines in copper prices have weighed on some of the resource-related firms. European companies which have reported financial results on today's session include Outokumpu (-7%), Alstom (+2.5%), Edenred (+4%), MTU Aero Engines (-8%), Puma (-2.5%), Iberdrola (flat), Volvo (+3%), Syngenta (-4%), Arm Holdings (+3%), EasyJet (+6.5%) and Tate & Lyle (+2.5%). US companies due to report later today include Ford, Motorola Solutions, Pepsi, Boeing and Caterpillar.

- UK movers [EasyJet +6.5% (Q3 sales above ests), JD Wetherspoon +6% (Q4 LFL sales rose), Iqe +5.5% (positive outlook), ARM Holdings +3% (Q2 results above ests), Tate & Lyle +2.5% (affirmed forecast), National Express +2.5% (raised dividend) Kingfisher +1.5% (reported rise in 10-week LFL sales); Renishaw -5% (FY profits declined y/y), Standard Chartered -1.4% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Heidelberg Cement +2.5% (broker commentary); Prosieben -14% (ex-dividend), MTU Aero Engines -8% (cut FY profit forecast), Puma -2.5% (Q2 results below ests)]
- France movers [Edenred +4% (H1 results rose y/y), Alstom +2.5% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Switzerland movers [Compagnie Financiere +3% (Q2 sales rose y/y), Roche +1% (Phase III data presentation); Syngenta -4% (H1 results below ests), EFG International -3% (H1 revs declined y/y), Holcim -1% (broker commentary)]
- Sweden movers [Volvo +3% (Q2 results above ests)]
- Finland movers [Outokumpu -7% (profit warning)]

- DIW Institute: German Constitutional Court ruling against legality of ECB OMT would force central bank to buy shares or ABS to keep the Euro stable

- ECB Q2 Bank Lending Survey noted that loan tightening continued into Q2, consumer credit standards eased in Q2. Banks expected net tightening to ease in Q3.The Q2, loan demand drop decelerated across the board and expected an ongoing fall in loan demand in Q3. Banks reported improved access to wholesale funding in Q2, expect slight worsening in funding conditions in Q3. Debt crisis impact on funding conditions eased in Q2
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka reiterated view that central bank would not lower its interest rates any further; partly because it wanted companies to understand that the cost of credit would remain stable. - Poland did not need ultra-low interest rates as it would destabilize PLN currency (zloty) and hurt bank deposits and lending
- Former PBoC adviser Xia Bin commented that China was showing signs of a crisis but stressed that the country was NOT in crisis
- BoJ official commented after meeting with market participants that bond purchases were seen to be operating smoothly with no need for change to bond buying scheme

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite was mixed heading into the NY morning. Some concerns reemerged in China after HSBC flash manufacturing PMI data hit an eleven month low at 47.7 while a NDRC researcher warned that Q4 growth could be less than 7%. However, the picture looked a bit brighter in Europe after the major PMI data came out.
- EUR/USD hit 1-month highs above 1.3245 aided by French and German PMI data which provided hope that the worse of the recession was behind Europe at this time. The pair was off its best levels as some analysts noted that the stronger data today will not have an impact in altering the ECB's forward guidance. ECB is expected to reiterated that it will keep rates at current level or lower for an extended period of time.
The USD/JPY pair hovered around parity for the fifth straight session.
- According to SNB models the CHF currency was still 11% overvalued
- Yields in core European counrties wree highr by 5bps after strong PMI data. Peripheral yields were mixed with Italy and Spain lower while Portugal was higher

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) PIMCO is said to have taken a more negative view on Spain and Italy sovereign debt
-(FR) France Debt Agency Chief: France will conduct more debt buybacks this year if the conditions remain favorable; Notes France this year has purchased 12B worth of maturing debt maturing in 2014 and 2015
-(GR) Germany Fin Ministry: Have not been able to confirm all measures needed before sending payment to Greece; have delayed aid tranche; IMF schedules discussion of the aid payment for July 29, with the EU commission scheduled to discuss the program on July 24. German Parliament to decide on the aid tranche by July 29; Germany notes that 5 of the 22 measures that are conditions for the tranche have yet to be confirmed by Greece.
- (GR) Troika will not accept an additional Greece tax deadline extensions - ekathimerini
- (GR) Greece civil servant cuts still not enough to meet troika demands; still need to cut 5,500 - Greek press
-(PT) Portugal presidency said to have announced cabinet reshuffle; Accepting a proposal to appoint govt members - financial press; CDS leader Portas to become Deputy PM.
- (ES) Chief justice of the Spain Constitutional Court de los Cobos admits to being a card-carrying PP member when he was a magistrate for Spain's highest legal body - El Pais
- (US) Larry Summers now seen as the front-runner to replace Fed Chairman Bernanke - CNBC citing Washington Post sources
-(US) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius: Reiterates Fed likely to start tapering asset purchases at Sept 17-18 meeting and the new Fed chief will be named in October - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR) EU Finance officials to hold call on Greece
- (IT) Italy govt confidence vote on a decree to boost growth
- (PT) Portugal releases Year-to-Date Budget Report
- (BR) Brazil Jun Federal Debt Data
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB 10B in May 2016 OFZ bonds
- 06:00 (UK) July CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -12e v -18 prior; Selling Prices: 4e v 3 prior; Business Optimism: 8e v 5 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2019 and 2028 Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 19th: No est v -2.6% prior
- 07:30 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:58 (US) July Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.6e v 51.9 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun New Home Sales: 484Ke v 476K prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (FR) France Jun Net Change Jobseekers: +10.5Ke v +0.1 prior Total Jobseekers: 3.282Me v 3.265K prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 27.0% prior
- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leaves Official Cash Target Rate unchanged at 2,50%
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.5% prior




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