Thursday July 25, 2013 - 03:43:04 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 25-Jul-2013 -0339 GMT
Stocks down across the board, apart from Shanghai (2040, +0.35%). Possible reaction to rise in US 10-Yr to 2.60%, which in turn could be a reaction to the higher than expected New Home Sales data (+497K).
The Dow (15542.24, -0.16%, -25.50) still holds above Support at 15500, but may be finding it a little difficult to move higher. The Nikkei (14646.62, -0.57%) is also looking vulnerable to a dip as it finds it difficult to rise past 14900. The Shanghai is putting up a good fight, but has to break above 2050 to find more Buyers.
The Nifty (5990.50) saw a big fall yesterday and could be vulnerable to a dip towards 5900.
Brent (106.85) has come down significantly. Charts show some support here. If this holds, we might see a bounce back towards 108-109. Else there is a danger of falling towards 105.
Silver (20.11) traded between 19.65-20.49 yesterday. It struggles to rise past 20.50 levels. A break above the 20.60-70 level can help it touch 21.00-50. Let see how it fares today.
Copper (3.1825) looked promising yesterday, making a high of 3.234 but has succumbed. With the near term charts in an uptrend we could possibly see it closing hgher for the week.
Gold (1321.05) has come down a bit but still remains above the 1300 mark. Till the time it holds above 1300, we can look for 1340-50 levels for the week
Dollar stronger on higher US Yields yesterday.
The Euro (1.3207) rose to 1.3256, but corrected down to 1.3177 yesterday. Overall trend remains positive for further rise. The Pound (1.5327) was unable to rise past 1.54 yesterday but may still be bullish if it manages to remain above 1.5260.
Dollar-Yen (100.10) has risen past 100, the Yen weakening more than had anticipated. We had been looking at a 99-100 range. The outlook still remains unclear, though the balance has shifted a bit to the upside. A break above Resistance at 100.60 is needed for further rise.
The Aussie (0.9149) has seen a sharp fall yesterday as the Resistance at 0.9300 has held well. A further fall towards 0.9075 may be possible.
The R-currencies, including the Rand (9.7699), have weakened on all-round Dollar strength. Dollar-Rupee (59.13) had been unable to break below 59.00 yesterday. The RBI will have to exert further pressure to prevernt a rise past 59.35 and at the same time ensure a break below 58.90. Otherwise, the Rupee could weaken a bit towards 59.50.
The US 10-Yr (2.60%) moved up yesterday, past our expectation of 2.55%, on the better than expected New Home Sales data. It is to be seen if it comes off again from here or not. If it indeed manages to fall below 2.55% from current levels, it could trace a nice Bear SHS, which could presage lower yields going forward, something that would be welcomed by all markets.
Further rise towards (and past 2.65%) may be taken badly by most markets.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.43%) rose on the RBI's liquidity tightening measures yesterday. The Indo-US 10-Yr Spread (5.83%) has also risen, despite the pick up in US Yields. Further rise to 6.13% will be needed before people come in to buy Indian debt.
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 106.30 ...Previous 105.90
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Situations
...Expected 110.00 ...Previous 109.40
8:00 GMT or 13:30 IST GER IFO Business Expectations
...Expected 102.50 ...Previous 102.50
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK GDP
...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous -0.30 %
...Actual 0.40 % ...Previous 0.40 %
US New Home Sales
...Actual 497 K ...Previous 459 K
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