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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Improvement in European data fails to inspire markets

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Improvement in European data fails to inspire markets
Thu, 25 Jul 2013 5:49 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) left Official Cash Target Rate unchanged at 2,50%, as expected
- South Korea Q2 Preliminary GDP beats expectations (Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.0%e)
- Japan investors bought net 549.3B in Foreign Bonds last week (3rd straight week) vs bought net 1.1T prior week
- Spain Q2 Unemployment Rate better than expected and registers first drop in two years (26.3% v 27.2%e)
- German July IFO Survey mixed; Business Climate improves to 106.2 v 1096.1e
- UK Q2 Advance GDP in line with expectations; highest annual rate since Q1 2011


***Economic Data***
- (PH) Philippines Jun Budget Balance (PHP): -8.5B v -13.2B prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.6% v +1.9% prior
- (DE) Germany May Construction Orders NSA Y/Y: +2.3%
- (VN) Vietnam July YTD Trade Balance: $200M v $400M prior; Exports Y/Y: 9.9 v 16.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: 14
- (ES) Spain Q2 Unemployment Rate: 26.3% v 27.2%e; first drop in two years
- (AT) Austria May Industrial Production M/M: -1.4 v +3.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.1 v +1.3% prior
- (EU) ECB 1.4B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 39M prior; 74.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 76.0B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden July Manufacturing Confidence: 93.8 v 96.2e; Consumer Confidence: 100.3 v 99.2e ; Economic Tendency Survey: 95.4 v 95.9e
- (NL) Netherlands July Producer Confidence: -3.5 v -3.9e
- (SE) Sweden Jun PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.7% v -4.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Jun Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.3%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Jun Household Lending Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.7%e
- (DE) Germany July IFO Business Climate: 106.2 v 106.1e; Current Assessment: 110.1 v 109.7e; Expectations Survey: 102.4 v 102.5e
- (IT) Italy July Consumer Confidence Index: 97.3 v 95.5e
- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.3% v 3.0%e; M3 three-month Average: 2.8% v 3.0%e
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected
- (TW) Taiwan Jun M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.3% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 7.0% prior
- (UK) Q2 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (UK) May Index of Services M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; 3M/3M: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Trade Balance (HKD): -49.7B v -46.6Be; Exports Y/Y: -0.2% v +2.4%e; Imports Y/Y: +1.4% v 2.7%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jun PPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.2%e


Fixed Income:
(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF42B vs. HUF45B indicated in 2016, 2018, and 2023 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -1% at 6,555,
DAX -1.24% at 8,274, CAC-40 -0.90% at 3,927, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 8,167, FTSE MIB -1% at 16,279, SMI -0.60% at 7,873, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1,673

- Following the negative leads out of Asia, European equity markets are broadly lower as the German and Spanish markets have seemingly ignored better than expected data points (Germany's IFO survey, Spain Q2 unemployment). European banks are broadly lower, following quarterly results from Credit Suisse which were essentially in line with analyst expectations. Other large European companies which have reported results on today's session include Roche, ABB, Michelin and BASF. US companies which are due to report later today include Potash, Dow Chemical, Harley Davidson, GM and 3M.

- UK movers [Rolls Royce +3.5% (H1 sales above ests, reaffirmed outlook); BT -1.5% (in line Q1 results)]
- Germany movers [Wincorp +5% (raised outlook); Software AG -7.5% (Q2 results below ests, cautious outlook); BASF -4% (Q2 results below ests)]
- France movers (Television Francaise +9% (Q2 sales above ests), Technip +2.5% (Q2 results above ests), Casino +1.5% (report rise in Q2 sales); Faurecia -6% (H1 profits below ests), Michelin -4.5% (H1 profits below ests))
- Spain movers [Bankinter +3% (H1 results above ests)]
- Switzerland movers [Givadan +4.5% (H1 results above ests), Roche +1% (H1 profits above ests); ABB -4.5% (H1 orders below ests), Lonza -2.5% (H1 profits declined y/y), Credit Suisse -2.5% (Q2 results in line)]
- The Netherlands moves [Tomtom +4.5% (Q2 results above ests), Unilever -1.5% (H1 results in line)]

Speakers:
- UK Chancellor Osborne commented that Q2 GDP was better than forecast and that the domestic economy was on the mend. He did caution that there was still a long way to go

- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented that the worst was over for Spain. He added that the economy to stabilize in H2 and poised for growth in coming quarters. He noted that current situation was different from 2010 rebound
- German IFO Economist noted that conditions in Germany remained fair with companies remaining cautiously optimistic. It noted that German economy was in 'catch-up' phase following a weak Q1. No sign Germany was suffering from weakness in other Euro States and from China. The IFO forecasted Q2 German GDP at 0.9% and at 0.4% in Q3 and 2013 full year German GDP at 0.6%
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) stated that it will release detailed measures to stabilize trade
- Philippines Central Bank: July inflation seen between 2.2-3.1% range
- Moody's places Philippines sovereign rating on review for possible upgrade

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Several key data releases were seen in the session but Europe could not capitalize on perceived improvement in the economy

- The first decline in Spain Unemployment in two years did little to muster up risk appetite in Europe. A better German IFO Business Climate and Current Assessment failed to inspire the EUR/USD to fresh 1-month highs. The EUR/USD dipped below the 1.32 handle as the NY morning approached. The softer M3 money supply was cited as a possible factor for the soft tone in the Euro today.
- The in-line UK Q2 GDP data appeared to be baked-in. The GBP/USD drifted lower despite the best annual reading in 2 years. GBP/USD reversed earlier gains against the USD and Euro pairs. GBP/USD dipped below the 1.53 handle just ahead of the NY morning. The pair earlier approached 1.54. Sept Gilt futures went from 112.00 to test above 112.40 in the aftermath of the release (10-year Gilt Yield went from 2.413% to under 2.38%)

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) S&P lowered ratings on 18 Italian banks and removed the ratings on 17 of those banks from CreditWatch with negative implications
- (ES) Spain Catalonia region seeks to bar Chief Justice de los Cobos from presiding over pending litigation due to his political biases - El Pais
- (PT) Portugal Finance Ministry: Govt has met the deficit level agreed to in Troika aid program, 1H deficit was 3.85B v deficit limit of 6.0B
- (PT) EU's Barroso: Portugal will be able to return to the debt markets in 2014 if stability is insured and there are no 'political accidents' - Portugal News
- (GR) Greece Parliament pass law that will allow stores to open on Sunday under certain conditions (remains opposed by some unions and Church of Greece)
- GR) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Confirms Greece will get next 2.5B aid tranche once it confirms it has met conditions by July 29
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Reiterates view that domestic economy has shown clear signs of recovery
- (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) : to gradually boost funds and issuance of aggregate bonds to support small companies
(CN) The end of the Fed's QE could lead to a worsening of China's forex position. current liquidity conditions are sufficient and there is no current need for the PBoC to cut the reserve ratio requirement (RRR).
- Reiterates the PBoC could cut the RRR in a "real" liquidity crunch. - financial press

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun PPI M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bills
- 06:30 (IT) Italy PM Letta with NATO Gen Sec Rasmussen
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 19th: No est v $506.0B prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey July Industrial Confidence: No est v 111.8 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 75.3% prior
- 08:00 (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to Sell RON300M in Bonds
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340Ke v 334K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.04Me v 3.114M prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Durable Goods Orders: 1.4%e v 3.7% prior (revised from 3.6%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior (revised from 0.7%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 0.6%e v 1/5% prior (revised from 1.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 1.1%e v 1.9% prior (revised from 1.7%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v +3.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium July Business Confidence: -12.2e v -12.8 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Global Economic Indicator: 1.8%e v 4.6% prior
- 09:30 (ZA) South Africa Crop Estimates Committee 6th summer grains output forecast
- 10:00 (IT) Italy PM Letta in Senate
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency releases Safety Decisions
- 11:00 (US) July Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 0e v -5 prior
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 19.0% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Jun National CPI Y/Y: +0.1%e v -0.3% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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