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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Flurry of data, fixed income and corporate earnings has traders overwhelmed

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Flurry of data, fixed income and corporate earnings has traders overwhelmed
Tue, 30 Jul 2013 5:53 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (JP) Japan Jun Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -3.3% v -1.5%e (1st decline in 5 months); Y/Y: -4.8% v -2.6%e; largest annual decline since 2011
- (JP) Japan Jun Jobless Rate 3.9% v 4.0%e (*Note first sub 4% reading since Oct 2008)
- Japanese government may lower the official FY14/15 real GDP growth forecast to around 1.0% and nominal GDP of about 3.2% vs 2.8% and 2.6% most recent targets respectively
- China PBoC injecting CNY17B through 7-day reverse repos (first reverse repo sale since early Feb)
- Spain Q2 Preliminary GDP shows improvement (-0.1% v -0.5% prior) but still registers its 8th straight quarterly contraction
- Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP registers a contraction (1st since Q4 2011)
- Italy has little problem selling 5-year and 10-year bonds; Sold upper end of range at lower yields

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) left all key rates unchanged (as expected); Repurchase Rate unchanged at 7.25%; (Reverse Repo Rate unchanged at 6.25% (by default); Left Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged at 4.00%

- (DE) Germany Aug GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 7.0 v 6.9e
- (ES) Spain Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.8%e v -2.0% prior
- (ES) Spain July Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Unemployment Rate: 10.3% v 10.3%e
- (DE) Germany July CPI Saxony M/M: 0.4 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0 v 2.0% prior
- (AT) Austria Jun Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 1.0%e
- (SE) Sweden May Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.2% prior
- (ES) Spain May Total Housing Permits M/M: 3.7% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: -22.5% v -16.5% prior
- (DE) Germany July CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.3% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7% prior
- (DE) Germany July CPI Hesse M/M: 0.4% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior
- (DE) Germany July CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prior
- (DE) Germany July CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- (UK) July Lloyds Business Barometer: 41 v 36 prior
- (PT) Portugal July Consumer Confidence: -52.7 v -53.9 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -2.6 v -2.9 prior
- (DE) Germany July CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.4 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1 v 2.1% prior
- (BE) Belgium July CPI M/M: 0.1 v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5 v 1.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone July Business Climate Indicator: -0.53 v -0.54e; Consumer Confidence: -17.4 v -17.4e; Economic Confidence:92.5 v 92.5e; Industrial Confidence: -10.6 v -10.2e; Services Confidence: -7.8 v -8.9e
- (ZA) South Africa Q2 Unemployment Rate: 25.6% v 25.4%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6/75B vs. 5.0-6.75B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds
-Sold 3.0B vs. 3.0B indicated in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.22% v 3.47% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.36x v 1.3x prior
- Sold 3.75B vs. 3.75B indicated in new 4.50% 2024 BTP bond; Avg yield 4.46% v 4.55% prior; bid to cover 1.32x v 1.46x prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK7.98B in 4-month and 7-month bills
- (EU) ECB allotted 109.2B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 102.3B prior (76 bids recd)
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.97% v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.66x v 2.23x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF818.9M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.096% v -0.087% prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 2.01B vs. 1.5-2.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 900M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.033% v +0.023% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.76x v 3.08x prior
- Sold 1.11B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.083% v +0.040% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.71x v 2.86x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,573,
DAX +0.20% at 8,277, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3,973, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,387, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 16,317, SMI flat at 7,811, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,684

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, as traders assess the plethora of corporate earnings released during the session. European banks are mostly lower, led by declines in shares of Deutsche Bank and Barclays. Declines in commodity prices and earnings from BP have weighed on resource related companies. US firms due to report results later today include Aetna, Coach, Merck, Corning, Cummins and Goodyear Tire.

- UK movers [GKN +5.5% (positive outlook commentary), ITV +4% (H1 sales above ests); Barclays -5.5% (rights offering, H1 results below ests), BP -4% (Q2 profits below ests)]
- Germany movers [Wacker Chemie +6% (Q2 results above ests), GEA Group +4.5% (Q2 results above ests), SDF -16% (concerns about potash prices), Rheinmetall -13% (profit warning) Deutsche Bank -3% (Q2 net profit below ests), Fresenius SE -4% (Q2 margins declined y/y)]
- France movers [Alcatel-Lucent +7% (Q2 gross margin rose, investment from Qualcomm), EDF +6% (raised EBITDA forecast), Valeo +5.5% (H1 sales rose y/y), Air Liquide +1.5% (H1 profits above ests)]
- Spain movers [Santander -0.50% (Q2 net profit below ests)]
- Switzerland movers [UBS +2% (to repurchase equity from SNB's stabilization fund)]

Speakers:
- Sweden Fin Min Borg commented that its GDP data came in as feared (weaker than expected). The domestic recovery is slow and weak and confirmed call for more stimulus to support the economy

- Former BoE official Gieve commented that UK growth could get to 2.5% or more but believed BoE was quite some way from materially changing policy
- Former BoE official Julius commented that UK growth was at escape velocity and that more UK monetary stimulus is not needed
- Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Q2 inflation report noted that it would maintain a cautious stance until inflation was in line with medium term targets. Inflation was seen rising to around 9% through July and slowing afterwards and core inflation seen accelerating on FX volatility. The TRY currency volatility had been reduced since interest rate hike. Additional tightening to be used when needed to combat FX volatility
- Hungary Central Bank commented that it planned to look through one-time factors in spikes to CPI and currently not considering changing CPI target. Inflation might rise to 3.4% in 2014 which will not affect rate policy
- The India Central Bank (RBI) commented after its rate decision that RBI policy to be shaped by growth, inflation and INR currency (rupee). The recent tightening steps to be rolled backed in a calibrated manner as stability is restored in FX market (**Note: Refers to the July 15th hike in Marginal Standing Facility (MSF). The RBI cut its FY14 GDP forecast to 5.5% from 5.7% prior. Economy resilience to shocks eroded as most external vulnerability indicators have deteriorated. Forfeiting monetary policy discretion to address external concerns. Time now should be used to institute structural reforms to lower current account deficit. The weak INR currency (rupee) likely to stroke inflation in coming months. Objective is to contain Wholesale Price Inflation around 5% by end of FY14 (March 2014) and target WPI at 3% in medium term
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao post rate decision press conference noted thyat wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) had come down but the biggest risk to inflation ans a weak INR currency (rupee) and that oil prices was another risk to inflation outlook. Economy's resilience to shocks had eroded and the current account deficit remained above sustainable levels
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Minutes: Board voted unanimously to hold rates steady in July at 2.50%
- BOJ Gov Kuroda stated that the sales tax increase to push down FY14 GDP by 0.7and he did not see a risk of a sharp decline in China's economy is small
- Japan Econ Min Amari commented that thre was no option where the sales tax won't be increased and it would not be postponed unless there was a huge foreign shock
- Japan rating agency R&I: Postponing Japan sales tax increase would raise future fiscal volatility
- India Chief Econ Adviser to Finance Ministry's Rajan commented that a stable INR currency is primary task of macroeconomic stabilization; RBI had plenty of ammunition left on rupee. Looking to stabilize the INR currency (rupee) and not defending any level in FX but needed less volatility. Current account gap would be cut significantly this year and govt would announce measures in coming weeks to help narrow the C/A deficit
- China PBoC to cut Reserve Requirement Ratio by 100bps for Lushan area that was impacted by recent earthquake
- China President Xi Jinping said to chair meeting with Politburo regarding economy in second half of year

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- AUD/USD was down over 1% below during the Asian session to be below the $0.91 handle - a 2-week low - while AUD/NZD cross hit its worst levels since late 2008. Aussie weakness was the result of a double-whammy from down under, as building approvals showed an unexpectedly deep contraction and RBA Gov Stevens hinted at further easing in the pipeline. Dealers were noting that shallow pockets that accompany the end of month one should remain pretty aware of the downside impulse potential after all this range trading.
- The EUR/USD was steady during the European morning. Dealers surmised that some of the Euro support was from AUD/EUR cross. The EUR/USD was holding below the 1.33 handle , which seemed well defended in recent session. The pair was at 1.3277 just ahead of the NY morning. Overall ahead of key releases later in the week the path of least resistance for the Euro seemed higher
- The USD/JPY hovered around the 98 level, The yen was weaker in Asia after Industrial Production data disappointed.
- the SEK was broadly lower after the Swedish Q2 GDP came in below expectations. EUR/SEK was higher by 1% nearing 8.68 area.

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japanese government may lower the official FY14/15 real GDP growth forecast to around 1.0% and nominal GDP of about 3.2% vs 2.8% and 2.6% most recent targets respectively - Nikkei News; Forecast accounts for plans to increase the 5% consumption tax to 8% next April.
- (AU) RBA Gov Stevens: There is still some scope to ease following inflation data; China growth may start with 5-6pct in 10-yrs time
- (CN) Certain local governments may be opposed to an audit plan, suggesting prior debt estimates may have been low as local governments are struggling with legacy debts from the Wen years.
- (US) Treasury Quarterly financing estimates: To borrow $209B in July to September quarter vs $200B estimate (vs a $223B projection); To borrow $235B in October to December quarter vs $270B estimate; Treasury paid down $11B in April to June quarter vs $35B projection (vs $10B estimate).
- (IT) Bank of Italy said to be conducting in-depth investigation of balance sheets of 8 Italian banks on concerns of worsening asset quality - financial press
- (IT) Berlusconi lawyer Longo: Italy's Berlusconi has not requested a delay for July 30th Mediaset hearing - phone interview
(GR) IMF confirms Greece tranche aid payment of 1.7B following 4th review; as expected

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Federal Reserve FOMC begin 2-day Meeting
- (DE) Germany July CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun YTD Budget Balance: No est v -33.34B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 6.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.5% prior
- 06:00 EU) OECD Jun Consumer Prices Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 195.5B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 6.3% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Budget Balance (ZAR): +16.5Be v -17.5B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun PPI
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) May S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 1.40%e v 1.72% prior; Y/Y: 12.4%e v 12.05% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 152.37 prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Manufacturing Index: -1.0%e v -4.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.7%e v 13.2% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Total Copper Production: No est v 475.1K prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -14.5B prior; Primary Budget Balance: No est v 5.7B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: No est v 34.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Senate Banking Committee hearing on systemic risk
- 10:00 (PT) Portugal Parliament discusses confidence motion
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) July Consumer Confidence Index: 81.0e v 81.4 prior
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Jun YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 56.0B prior

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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