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Tuesday July 30, 2013 - 15:58:23 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Abundant Caution Rules Ahead of Key Central Bank Decisions, July NFPs US Market Update: Abundant Caution Rules Ahead of Key Central Bank Decisions, July NFPs
Tue, 30 Jul 2013 11:40 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Portugal Jun Industrial Production M/M: -2.7 v +5.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 4.1% prior
- (PT) Portugal Jun Retail Sales M/M: 1.1 v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.6 v -3.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Jun YTD Budget Balance: -40.0B v -33.34B prior
- (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2%e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e July 26th: w/w -1.6%; Y/Y: +2.2%
- (DE) Germany July CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7 v 1.7% prior
- (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.7%e
- (DE) Germany July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e
- (CA) Canada Jun Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e July 26th: +2.9% y/y, July MTD: +0.8% m/m; July YTD: +3.0%
- (US) May S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 1.05% v1.40%e; Y/Y: 12.17% v 12.40%e prior; Home Price Index: 156.14 v 152.37 prior
- (CL) Chile Jun Total Copper Production: 482.2 K v 475.1K prior
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 212.3B v 212.2B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jun Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -12.2B v -14.5B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 5.4B v 3.0Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 34.5% v 34.5%e
- (US) July Consumer Confidence Index: 80.3 v 81.3e

- Investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday and Thursday's ECB and BoE decisions. Strength in European trading has helped goose US indices slightly higher, although trading volumes are somewhat constrained. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.15%, the S&P500 is up 0.22% and the Nasdaq is up 0.64%.

- EUR/USD bounced right off the 1.3300 level again this morning after repeated attempts to breach the level over recent days. Confidence data out overnight for the euro zone improved for a third month in July, rising to its highest level since last April.

- The May Case-Shiller home prices index climbed 12.17% y/y and all twenty cities showed increases. Two cities, Dallas and Denver, saw home values bust out to all-time highs. While the improving housing market has been a great comfort to many stocks and certainly the Fed, not everybody believes it's a good thing. A senior economist with real estate firm Zillow commented that the impact of foreclosure re-sales continue to be pronounced, as homes previously sold under duress trade under more normal circumstances, leading to inflated and misleading markups in price.

- The world's largest potash producer, Russian firm Uralkali, upended the industry by abandoning limits on production after it froze cooperation with major supplier Belarus. The decision sent shares of leading global potash producers down by 20-30% as investors speculated a flood of supplies will undercut prices. Note that the industry had run as an informal cartel that supported higher potash prices over shipped volumes, while now the market will be fully competitive. MOS and POT are down more than 20%.

- Profits at pharma giants Pfizer and Merck both topped expectations in Q2 reports out today, however the firms both missed revenue expectations and Merck cut its FY13 revenue outlook. Shares of Merck are flat, while PFE gained 2% at its best but is headed back to the flat line. Note that Pfizer's CFO said that any break-up of the company would be unlikely before 2014 (back in January, the CEO said the company might split up over the longer term).

- Insurers Aetna and Hartford are trading down this morning. P&C firm Hartford missed bottom-line targets as premiums remained stagnant at its core property and casualty business. The company is still seeing losses from hedging and divestments. Aetna saw solid gains in its profits and sustained lower medical care utilization.

- Shares of Sprint are up 2% or so, but well off their highs, despite the very poor numbers in the firm's Q2 report. The firm lost a net two million customers in the quarter and warned that overall customer numbers would fall again in Q3. The firm is still losing money, although the top line looks ok.

- BP is the first of the oil majors to report Q2 results. The firm's profits were disappointing thanks to higher costs and continuing residual divestments from the ongoing process of paying for the Gulf disaster. Upstream production was down slightly. ADRs of BP are trading down 4%. Independent producer Occidental met or beat expectations, although shares of OXY are down 3% or so in the session.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Jun YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 56.0B prior



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