Wednesday July 31, 2013 - 03:41:55 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 31-Jul-2013 -0339 GMT
The Dow (15520.59, -0.01%) has dipped a bit yesterday but still has crucial support at current levels. If this holds we could see a sharp rise towards 15750 else it may fall to 15400 and lower. All eyes on the FOMC and Q2 GDP estimate today.
DAX (8271) has been consolidating sideways within a broad uptrend. It can move higher towards 8500 if it manages to hold above 8200. Tomorrow's ECB Meeting could be a catalyst.
Nikkei (13776.75, -0.67%) is down from yesterday's Close. Charts show an immediate Support near 13600 and then near 13400. These need to be broken to maintain the Double Top. Shanghai (2004.04, +14.34%) has risen from a low of 1965 yesterday, but it can fall again if it is unable to rise past 2025 in the near term.
Nifty (5755.05) has fallen sharply from its intra-day high of 5861.3. It targets 5650 now, victim to the Rupee's weakness. A small bounce could be seen from there.
Brent (106.87) has come off a bit. Rounding Top on the Charts show space towards 105 on the downside. Would negate our earlier bullish call for 109-110.
Copper (3.0715) has broken Channel support yesterday on China worries and could now target 3.0 on the downside. Break below 3.0 could be disastrous in the long term.
The current week can be cruicial for Silver (19.88). It is trading at the channel resistance in an overall downtrend. A break above 20.5 can boost its growth. If not, we can see a fall towards 18-17.
Gold (1332.20) is still bullish in our charts, with scope for a rise to 1350-60. But, how long can it hold against general commodity weakness and rising Dollar strength is to be seen.
Most currencies are weaker against the Dollar apart from the Euro and the Yen.
Asian currencies (USDSGD 1.2714, USDMYR 3.2432) are trading weaker. The Aussie (0.9036) is trading weak with danger of falling further towards 0.89. The R-currencies (USDRUB 32.96, USDBRL 2.2789, USDZAR 9.8113) are weak. The Rand is the strongest of the three.
Dollar-Rupee (60.47) has good chances of rising further towards 60.75 and 61.25.
The Euro (1.3264) has been steady through yesterday, broadly ranging between 1.3300-3240. We see good Resistance in the 1.3300-3400 region with danger of a fall. The Pound (1.5232) saw a sharp decline yesterday, having broken below 1.5400 on Monday. The uptrend since 1.4813 (09-July) has been broken and a further dip to 1.5135 is possible.
Dollar-Yen (98.05) is consolidating between 97.65-98.50 for the last three days, having fallen last week. Crucial Resistance at 98.50. Unclear whether it will hold and push the market down further or if it will break leading to a recovery in the Dollar. Bias may be on the downside.
The US 10-Yr (2.60%) remains high, waiting for the FOMC today, for confirmation that the "taper" will start from September. Whatever Bernanke says will be crucially important, of course. Watch Resistance in the 2.70-75% region. In case it breaks the target will be 3.75% on the upside. In case it holds, we could be looking at a major Double Top. Let us see.
Possibly the FOMC will work to cool the markets in the backdrop of slowing global growth.
The RBI lowered India's 2013 GDP estimate to 5.5% yesterday. The BOE and ECB meetings are due tomorrow. The Spain-Germany 10-Yr Spread (2.99%) has been stabilising between 2.75-3.25% for the last two months but has an upward bias. The market will be looking for Draghi to do something about growth.
23:15 GMT or 4:45 IST JP PMI
...Actual 50.7 ...Previous 52.30
0:01 GMT or 5:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -19 ...Previous -21
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.20 % ...Previous 12.10 %
12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 179 K ...Previous 188 K
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US GDP
... Expected 1.10% ...Previous 1.80%
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected 0.20% ...Previous 0.10 %
...Actual 3.9 % ...Previous 4.1%
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 7.25 %...Previous 7.25 %
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 6.25 %...Previous 7.00 %
...Actual 4.00 %...Previous 4.00 %
EU Biz Climate
...Actual 92.5 % ...Previous 91.3
US Case Schiller
...Actual 12.17 % ...Previous 12.09 %
US Cons Conf
...Actual 80.3 ... Previous 82.1
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