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Wednesday July 31, 2013 - 10:30:31 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Overall European data mixed in session; EMU unemployment posts its first decline in almost two-and-a-half years; Focus on FOMC decision EU Market Update: Overall European data mixed in session; EMU unemployment posts its first decline in almost two-and-a-half years; Focus on FOMC decision
Wed, 31 Jul 2013 5:47 AM EST

- Trading has been listless ahead of key events this week (summer trading into month end). FOMC today, BOE and ECB rate decisions on Thursday and Non-Farm payroll on Friday)
- Japan Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a four month low of 50.7
- European data comes in mixed;
- Disappointments: Germany Retail Sales miss M/M: -1.5% v +0.2%e; France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: -0.8% v 0.0%e; Spain Jun Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.0% v -4.7%e (32nd straight negative reading)
- Beats: Germany July Unemployment Change registers its 2nd straight month of improvement; Italy Unemployment Rate moves off 25-year lows (12.1% v 12.3%e but Youth Unemployment Rate: 39.1% v 38.3% prior; Euro Zone Jun Unemployment registers its first decline in almost two-and-a-half years
- German 30-year auction yield of 2.47% is the highest since Jan 2012
- Focus on FOMC decision later today: key message likely that monetary policy will be data dependent to decide tapering

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jun Annualized Housing Starts: 976K v 982Ke; Y/Y: 15.3% v 16.0%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 21.9% v 26.0% prior

- (DE) Germany Jun Retail Sales M/M: -1.5% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.8% v +0.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Jun UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.44 v 1.45 prior
- (DE) Germany Jun ILO Employment: 41.775M v 41.797M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4 v 5.4% prior
- (FI) Finland May Final Trade Balance: 66M v 90M prior
- (FR) France Jun Producer Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.1%e
- (FR) France Jun Consumer Spending M/M: -0.8% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v +0.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jun Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.0% v -4.7%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.0% v -4.5% prior
- (CH) Swiss July KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.23 v 1.22e
- (TR) Turkey Jun Trade Balance: -$8.6B v -$10.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Jun Producer Prices M/M: +0.3% v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.8%e
- (EU) ECB 28M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 583M prior; 79.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 77.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (TH) Thailand Jun Current Account Balance: -$664M v -$785Me; Total Trade Account Balance: $588M v $535M prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$3.1B v +$355M prior
- (TH) Thailand Jun Business Sentiment Index: 49.9 v 53.9 prior
- (DE) Germany July Unemployment Change: -7K v 0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.8%e
- (IT) Italy Jun Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.1% v 12.3%e
- (CZ) Czech Jun Money Supply Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.8% prior
- (NO) Norway May AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e
- (NO) Norway Q2 Industrial Confidence: 1 v 1 prior
- (ES) Spain May Current Account: +2.4B v -0.3B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): -16.7B v -7.8B prior
- (CN) China Q2 Preliminary Current Account: $48.2B v $55.2B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun M3 Money Supply: 9.7% v 11.2% prior;
- (EU) Euro Zone July CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Unemployment Rate: 12.1% v 12.2%e

- (BE) Belgium Jun Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.6% prior
- (IT) Italy July Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.4%e
- (IT) Italy July Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.8% v -1.6%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e
- (GR) Greece May Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.2% v -14.2% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -2.6% v -10.0%e
- (PH) Philippines Jun Bank Lending Y/Y: 13.0% v 13.1% prior; Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 12.3% v 13.1% prior
- (PH) Philippines Jun M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 20.3% v 16.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 6-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 2.7B in 3-month Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 9.5B prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB3.06B in Dec 2-019 OFZ Bonds; Yield: 6.90%
- (DE) Germany sold 1.627B in 2.5% 2044 Bunds; Avg Yield: 2.47% (highest since Jan 2012) v 2.16% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.5x prior


FTSE 100 +0.60% at 6,608,
DAX +0.10% at 8,276, CAC-40 flat at 8,275, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,396, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 16,491, SMI -0.20% at 7,791, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,686

- European equity markets are current trading mixed. The FTSE 100 has outperformed supported by gains in shares of Centrica. In Spain, the IBEX-35 has lagged amid declines in shares of BBVA. European banks are trading mostly lower, led by declines in shares of Deutsche Bank and Barclays. Resource related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in commodity prices. Event risks for the US session include, US Q2 GDP data, July US ADP Employment Change and the conclusion of the FOMC policy meeting.

- UK movers [Smurfit Kappa +4.5% (Q2 results above ests), Rightmove +4.5% (raised dividend), Antofagasta +2.5% (reaffirmed FY copper output target), Taylor Wimpey +1.5% (H1 profits rose), Tullow Oil +1.5% (H1 production +14%), Centrica +1% (reported rise in H1 profits)]
- Germany movers [Loewe +25% (announced strategic jv in China), OSRAM +5% (raised FY outlook), Bayer +3% (raised forecast for drug unit), HeidelbergCement +3% (Q2 profits above ests); IVG -30% (failed to reach lending agreement)]
- France movers [Peugeot +6.5% (narrowed H1 auto unit loss), Schneider Electric +4% (reaffirmed FY forecast), Suez Environmental +2% (H1 profits rose y/y), EADS +2% (H1 results above ests), BNP +1% (Q2 results above ests)]
- Italy movers [Fiat Industrial +2% (Q2 net profit above ests); Telecom Italia -5% (capital raise speculation)]
- Spain movers [BBVA -0.50% (reported in line Q2 results)]
- Belgium movers [Anheuser-Busch InBev +7.5% (Q2 results above ests)]

- ECB chief Draghi wants central bank council minutes disclosed; Board to present a corresponding proposal to governing council for discussion and decision

- Hungary Central Bank's Balog commented that it might extend lending plan after Sept
- IMF's Schaechter commented that it had reached a staff agreement with Romania on precautionary loan for 4.0B over two years. IMF forecasted Romania 2013 GDP around 2%
- Japan LDP Tax Chief Noda commented that PM Abe did not seem to indicate any wavering on tax increase plan. There was room to consider lowering effective corporate tax rate, however, not at the moment.Expected sales tax to be put in place as planned from Apr 2014.
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao reiterated view that RBI policy kept balance between growth and inflation with weak INR currency a key risk to inflationand that the large Current Account deficit also a key risk
- India Central bank (RBI) Deputy Gov Patel: FX reserves are at adequate level (**Note around $280B); country's potential growth rate is around 7%
- India Fin Min Chidambaram: Will take all steps to achieve 5.5-6.0% GDP growth . Govt considering significant liberalization of FDI policy; looking at steps to increase NRI investment
- Former PBoC advisor Yu Yongding stated that he was suspicious on local govt ability and intentions to repay deb. He noted that China local govt debt was dangerous because the size was unknown. He warned that China should be alert to the risks from the end of QE from the Fed
- China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): China to adjust anti-dumping duty rate for US steel companies

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- USD remained locked within recent ranges on light volumes as financial

markets awaited this week's monetary policy announcements by the FOMC (today),
ECB and BoE (tomorrow). The USD's tone was softer as the NY morning neared. Overall no major policy shifts at any of the meetings was expected.
- The FED was likely to confirm that QE is drawing to a conclusion while emphasizing that the exit would be managed according to how the economic recovery evolved. BoE and ECB likely to play defensive and eager to re-assure markets that any exit steps in Europe were still a far way off.
The EUR/USD continued to probe the upper-end of its recent range and again tried to break above the 1.33 handle.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German candidate for Chancellor Steinbrueck: Southern Europe needs to be offered a "Marshall Plan B"
- (IT) Prosecutors in Italy tax fraud case said to have requested a reduction in potential ban on Berlusconi's participation in politics to three years from five - press
-(PT) Portugal press indicates govt survives confidence vote, as expected
- (CN) China PBOC's Xu: Expresses confidence that 2013 China GDP will reach 7.5%
- (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) head Xu: expresses confidence that China 2013 GDP to reach 7.5%

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Live Registry Monthly Change: No est v -2.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 13.6% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Jun Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.9% prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.1%e v -1.1% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q2 BER Consumer Confidence: No est v -7 prior
- 06:30 (IN) India Jun Fiscal Deficit (INR): No est v 87.1B
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 26th: No est v -1.2% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) July Inflation Expectations: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Trade Balance (ZAR): -8.9Ke v -11.0B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Manufacturing PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.1% prior
- 08:15 (US) July ADP Employment Change: +180Ke v 188K prior
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Advanced GDP QoQ Annualized: 1.0%e v 1.8% prior; Personal Consumption: 1.6%e v 2.6% prior

- 08:30 (US) Q2 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada May Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
- 09:00 (CL) Chile Jun Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.4% prior
- 09:00 (US) July NAPM-Milwaukee: 52.00e v 51.55 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.6% prior
- 09:45 (US) July Chicago Purchasing Manager: 54.0e v 51.6 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.351T prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Jun National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.4% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.5%e v 10.4% prior
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Construction Activity M/M: No est v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China July Manufacturing PMI: 49.8e v 50.1 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China July HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 47.7e v 48.2 prior

- (ZM) Zimbabwe Presidential and Parliamentary Elections




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