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Wednesday July 31, 2013 - 16:11:28 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Q2 GDP Beats Expectations, FOMC Decision on Tap US Market Update: US Q2 GDP Beats Expectations, FOMC Decision on Tap
Wed, 31 Jul 2013 11:22 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Jun Retail Sales Volume M/M: -1.6% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6% prior
- (IE) Ireland July Live Registry Monthly Change: -3.2K v -2.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 13.5% v 13.6% prior
- (IL) Israel Jun Unemployment Rate: 6.9 v 6.9% prior
- (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.1%e
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e July 26th: -3.7% v -1.2% prior; 10th decline in 11 weeks
- (BR) Brazil Jun Manufacturing PPI M/M: 1.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.1% prior
- (US) July ADP Employment Change: +200K v +180Ke
- (US) Q2 Advanced GDP Q/Q Annualized: 1.7% v 1.0%e; Personal Consumption: 1.8% v 1.6%e
- (US) Q2 Advanced GDP Price Index: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8% v 1.0%e
- (CA) Canada May Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (CL) Chile Jun Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.5%e
- (BE) Belgium Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.6% prior
- (US) July NAPM-Milwaukee: 52.43 v 52.00e
- (US) July Chicago Purchasing Manager: 52.3 v 54.0e
- (MX) Mexico Jun Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): T v 2.351T prior
- (US) Weekly DOE Oil Inventories: Crude: +430K v -2Me; Gasoline: +770K v -1Me; Distillate: -465K v +0.5Me

- The better US data is helping calm nerves ahead of the FOMC decision this afternoon. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.53%, the S&P500 is up 0.63% and the Nasdaq is up 0.54%.

- The first reading of Q2 US GDP was better than expected, although still lags below the +2.0% level that would likely provoke a self-sustaining recovery. Nonresidential investment and imports and exports were all much improved over final Q1 levels, although analysts said the decline in the PCE measure to +1.8% from final Q1 levels of +2.3% is not a very good sign. The firm ADP jobs data for July suggest Friday's payrolls reading will not disappoint.

- EUR/USD saw choppy trading before and after the key US data, but the pair remains right in the range seen over the last three sessions and unable to break above 1.3300. Note that AUD/USD moved below the 90 handle for the first time since September 2010.

- Shares of Facebook surpassed their IPO price of $38 this morning in the premarket, a key milestone for the firm around 14 months after its deeply flawed initial offering. The firm's shares have been on a tear since its excellent Q2 report, and yesterday press reports suggested Facebook would start offering 15-second television-style spots in user news feeds.

- Activist investor Bill Ackman has disclosed a 9.8%, $2.2 billion stake in Air Products, helping shares of APD trade up 3%. The company said it would "thoroughly review constructive input from shareholders" and said it had not yet been contacted by Ackman. Note that Herbalife, Ackman's big short, is just off one-year highs after yesterday's solid earnings report and news that George Soros may have a substantial long position in the name.

- Michael Dell and Silver Lake warned that their $13.75/shr deal to buy Dell was close to collapse unless the board changes how votes on the transaction are counted. Earlier this morning, the board said it would not change the voting rules for the upcoming August 2nd shareholder meeting.

- Refiners Hess and Phillips 66 are up about 2% each in the early going after earnings. Hess saw very good earnings thanks to a jolt from divestments, although they also decreased production levels. Phillips's profits were down across the board y/y, leading the board to add $1.0B to the existing $2.0B share buyback program. Phillips saw some significant downtime in the refining arm in the quarter.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Jun National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.4% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.5%e v 10.4% prior
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Construction Activity M/M: No est v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China July Manufacturing PMI: 49.8e v 50.1 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China July HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 47.7e v 48.2 prior
- (ZM) Zimbabwe Presidential and Parliamentary Elections




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