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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Combination of factors aiding sentiment in session (earnings, PMIs and FOMC statement); BoE and ECB both expected to maintain a dovish policy stance at today's polic

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Combination of factors aiding sentiment in session (earnings, PMIs and FOMC statement); BoE and ECB both expected to maintain a dovish policy stance at today's policy meetings
Thu, 01 Aug 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- FOMC: A dovish policy statement expressing concern over low inflation, elevated unemployment rate, and higher mortgage rates resulting more dovish tone but still maintained a comfortable set-up to proceed with a QE tapering
- Australia govt may look to place a new deposit insurance tax on local banks in the event future bailouts are required
- Japan investors bought net 233.2B in Foreign Bonds last week vs bought net 549.3B prior week (4th consecutive week of purchase
- (CN) China July Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 47.7 vs. 47.7e (11-month low)
- (CN) China July Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 vs. 49.8e
- (AU) Australia July AIG performance of Manufacturing Index: 42.0 vs. 49.6 prior(18th consecutive month of contraction; 3-month low)
- European PMI Manufacturing data mixed overall; Most of core Europe beats expectations (France missed) with improvement in periphery. Italy posted its first expansion in 24 months
- Spain 3-year and 5-year auction seen as successful; sold more than indicated at lower borrowing costs


***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia July Inflation M/M: 3.3% v 2.7%e; Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.0%e; Core Inflation Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.6%e
- (ID) Indonesia Jun Total Trade Balance: -$847M v -$750Me; Exports Y/Y: -4.5% v +1.0%e; Imports Y/Y: -6.8% v -0.1%e
- (JP) Japan July Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -13.5% v -15.8% prior
- (IN) India July HSBC-Markit Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 50.3 prior
- (RU) Russia July Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 50.9e; first contraction since August 2011

- (IE) Ireland Investec Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 v 50.3 prior; second month of growth
- (PE) Peru July CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e; Wholesale Prices M/M: 1.0% v 0.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden July Swedbank PMI Survey: 51.3 v 53.0e
- (AU) Australia July RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 89.6 v 89.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -11.8% v -10.4% prior
- (DK) Denmark Jun Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.4% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8% prior-
- (NL) Netherlands July Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 v 48.8 prior
- (NO) Norway July PMI: 47.5 v 49.1e
- (HU) Hungary July PMI: 49.0 v 50.8 prior
- (TR) Turkey July Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 51.2 prior
- (PL) Poland July Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 50.0e; first growth in 16 months
- (FR) France July new car registrations y/y: +0.9% v -9.0% prior
(TH) Thailand July Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1%e ((lowest level since Nov 2009); Core CPI Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (EU) ECB 25.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 28M prior; 82.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 79.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain July Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 v 50.6e
- (CZ) Czech Republic July Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 51.0 prior
- (DE) Germany June Machine Orders Y/Y: -5% v -5% prio
- (IT) Italy July PMI Manufacturing: 50.4 v 49.7e; first expansion in 24 months
- (FR) France July Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.7 v 49.8e; 17 month high but confirms 17th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany July Final PMI Manufacturing: 50.7 v 50.3e; confirms first growth in 4 months and highest level since Jan 2012
- (EU) Euro Zone July Final PMI Manufacturing: 50.3 v 50.1e; confirms first growth in 24 months

- (GR) Greece July Manufacturing PMI: No est v 45.4 prior ; 43-month high but its 47th straight month of contraction
- (UK) July PMI Manufacturing: 54.6 v 52.8e; highest since March 2011
- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 14.7% v 11.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 13.4% v 10.6%e
- (ZA) South Africa July Kagiso PMI: 52.2 v 51.0e
- (CY) Cyprus July CPI M/M: -1.5% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.3 v +0.1% prior
- (DK) Denmark July PMI Survey: 57.6 v 57.1 prior
- (NO) Norway July House Prices Y/Y: +3.9%
- (ES) Spain July New Car Sales Y/Y: +14.8%

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoso) sold total 3.22B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 2016 and 2018 bonds

- Sold 951M in 3.3% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 2.636% v 2.768% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.32x v 2.57x prior; Max Yield 2.656% v 2.794% prior ; Tail: 2.0bps v 2.6bps prior
- Sold 2.27B in 3.75% 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.561% v 3.735% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.74x v 2.1x prior; Maximum Yield 3.589% v 3.768% prior; Tail: 2.8bps v 3.3bps prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.08% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.83x v 2.29x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF7.5B vs. HUF5.0B indicated in Floating 2019 bond; Avg Price: 95.28 v 95.22 prior; Bid-to-cover:2.15x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,650,
DAX +1.2% at 8,374, CAC-40 +0.40% at 4,010, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 8,484, FTSE MIB +1.3% at 16,693, SMI +0.10% at 7,820, S&P 500 Futures +0.70% at 1,692

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, tracking the gains in Asian, as traders assess the recent Fed commentary and corporate earnings releases. Additionally, investors are continuing to await today's European central bank meeting (ECB, BOE) and Friday's US monthly payrolls report. European banks are mostly higher, supported by earnings from SocGen and Lloyds. Resource-related firms are mostly higher, tracking the gains in Chinese equities.

- UK movers [Lloyds +7% (H1 profits rose y/y), BAE Systems +2.5% (H1 sales rose y/y); Shell -4% (Q2 profits below ests)]
- Germany movers [Metro +6% (Q2 results above ests), Prosieben +2.5% (Raised FY sales forecast); BMW -1.5% (Q2 results below ests), Continental -1% (cautious outlook)]
- France movers [SocGen +7.5% (Q2 results above ests), GDF Suez +5.5% (reaffirmed FY targets); Sanofi -6% (profit warning)]
- Denmark movers [Danske Bank +6.5% (Q1 net profit above ests)]
- The Netherlands [ArcelorMittal -2% (cut FY EBITDA forecast)]

Speakers:
- Spain PM Rajoy testifies in Parliament testimony on corruption charge.
He noted that scandal had affected the country's overseas image and admitted he made a mistake in trusting Barcenas. He stressed that former PP Treasurer Barcenas's accusations were false and that there was no double accounting at the PP. Nothing to related to the Barcenas case would keep him from his position as PM. He added that the domestic economy was improving on all fronts and on the brink of leaving the recession behind. He added that the danger of a sovereign bailout had gone away. He warned that those making corruption claims jeopardized the recovery
- Former ECB chief Trichet: Publication of ECB minutes is not optimal as central bank has a row of particularities
- Hungary Commercial banks said seek proposal on FX mortgages into forint currency by Aug 23rd. Hungary Econ Min Varga reiterated that FX loans needed to be phased out asap
- Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL): Have achieved 90% of 2013 financing need
- India Central Bank gov Subbarao reiterated that CPI continued to remain high due to cyclical and distribution problems. He also reiterated that the RBI managed exchange rate volatility and not targeting any FX level
- India national spot exchange CEO: Trading at exchange suspended after India govt raised concern; not encountering any liquidity constraints. Exchange to settle all contracts before trading resumes

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The FX market was quite volatile in the aftermath of the FOMC statement. Overall the traders took more of a dovish tweak to the language but overall it did not open or close the door on policy tapering

- The USD was on a firmer footing ahead of the BOE and ECB rate decisions. BoE and ECB were both expected to maintain a dovish policy stance at today's policy meetings.
- The EUR/USD was back in familiar range after yesterday brief pops above 1.33 handle. Dealers noted that the pair met a 61.8% retracement of its 2013 range (1.3713-1.2746) following the Fed statement on Wed at 1.3345. The pair remained lower ahead of the ECB meeting. Most of core Europe beat expectations (France missed) with improvement in periphery. Italy posted its first expansion in 24 months. The pair was at 1.3245 as the NY morning approached.
- The GBP/USD recovered from earlier losses after the UK PMI Manufacturing posted its best reading since March 2011 and perhaps cemented that the BOE would not change its policy expectations at today's meeting.
- AUD continued to struggle amid a slowdown in China and RBA rate cut expectations and remained below the 90 handle

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) European Union finance exec: Funding pressures on Portugal and Ireland have eased; both countries have large cash buffers; Expecting roadshows for the next issuance from the EFSM to start in Q4
-EU) ECB's Weidmann would welcome publication of the ECB minutes - Handelsblatt
- (DE) German CDU member Meister: EU will encounter 4 additional years if German crisis policy; rejects EU bank resolution fund - financial press interview
-(ES) Spain Finance Ministry sets deficit goals for regional governments - press; 2013 deficit limits for regions set at 1.0-1.6% of GDP, 2014 deficit limits set at 1.0% of GDP
- (US) FOMC: Reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens.
- (JP) Japan govt is making plans to cut the fiscal deficit in 2014 and 2015 by a total of 8T - Nikkei News
- (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) researcher Wang: China has little chance to face hard landing
-(CN) China Stats Bureau official Zhao: China potential growth has fallen into range of 7-8%
-(CN) China to eliminate inspection-related fee for exporters to boost trade starting August - General Admin of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CZ) Czech July Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -31.5B prior
- (RU) Russia Reserve Fund: No est v $84.7B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.5B prior
- (RO) Romania July Total International Reserves: No est v $35.4B prior
- (ZA) South Africa July Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior
- (IT) Italy July Budget Balance: No est v 14.1B prior
- (IT) Italy Supreme Court could rule on Belusconi in tax fraud appeal
- 06:00 (NO) Norway announces details of Aug. 6 Bond Auction
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Repo Rate unchanged at 0.05%

- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 26th: No est v $505.7B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 0.6% prior
- 07:30 (US) July Challenger Job Cuts: no est v 39.4K prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.8% prior
- 07:30 (US) Aug RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 50.7 prior
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Main Refi Rate and Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.50% and 0.0% respectively
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Industrial Production M/M: +1.2%e v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 345Ke v 343K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.00Me v 2.997M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 08:58 (US) July Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 53.2e v 53.2 prelim

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil July PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.4 prior
- 09:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Gov Simor post rate decision press conference
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore July Purchasing Managers Index: 51.3e v 51.7 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 51.0e v 51.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Construction Spending M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) July ISM Manufacturing: 52.0e v 50.9 prior; ISM Prices Paid: 53.5e v 52.5 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Remittances: $1.9Be v $2.0B prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy July New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -5.5% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico July IMEF Manufacturing Index: 48.3e v 47.5 prior; Non Manufacturing: 52.0e v 51.8 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil July Trade Balance: $450Me v $2.4B prior; Exports: $22.1Be v $21.2B prior; Imports: $21.9Be v $18.8B prior
- 17:00 (US) July Total Vehicle Sales: 15.80e v 15.89M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.40e v 12.43M prior
- (CA) Ontario by Elections in Windsor, London, Ottawa, Toronto

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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