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Thursday August 1, 2013 - 16:05:47 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Excellent US July Data, Auto Sales and Weekly Claims Whet Risk Appetite US Market Update: Excellent US July Data, Auto Sales and Weekly Claims Whet Risk Appetite
Thu, 01 Aug 2013 11:32 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) left both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively, as expected
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e July 26th: $509.4B v $505.7B prior
- (US) July Challenger Job Cuts: 37.7K v 39.4K prior; Y/Y: 2.3 v 4.8% prior
- (US) Aug RBC Consumer Outlook Index: 49.4 v 50.7 prior
- (EU) ECB left both Main Refi Rate and Deposit Facility Rate unchanged (at 0.50% and 0.0%)
- (CZ) Czech July Budget Balance (CZK): -27.6B v -31.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.9% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.2%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 326K v 345Ke (lowest since Jan 2008); Continuing Claims: 2.951M v 3.00Me
- (US) July Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 53.7 v 53.2e
- (CZ) Czech Central Bank leaves the Repo Rate unchanged at 0.05%
- (BR) Brazil July PMI Manufacturing: 48.5 v 50.4 prior
- (CA) RBC Canada Jun Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 52.4 prior
- (SG) Singapore July Purchasing Managers Index: 51.8 v 51.3e; Electronics Sector Index: 50.3 v 51.0e
- (US) July ISM Manufacturing: 55.4 v 52.0e; ISM Prices Paid: 49.0 v 53.5e
- (US) Jun Construction Spending M/M: -0.6% v +0.4%e
- (MX) Mexico Jun Remittances: $2.0B v $1.9Be
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +59 bcf v +55-60 bcf expected range

- Strong final July PMI data out overnight helped European markets close at or near their highs. Meanwhile US equity indices are roaring higher on strong data and some solid corporate reports, although there are some dark spots among the earnings. As of writing the DJIA is up 0.81%, the S&P500 is up 0.96% and the Nasdaq is up 1.0%.

- Initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since January 2008 and shrank more than expected. The four-week average dropped to 341K, which is below the 350K level that economists say indicates moderate job growth. Meanwhile the July ISM manufacturing index topped expectations and hit its highest level since April 2011. The key employment component popped back into positive growth territory after a worrying contraction in June.

- There were no surprises in either rate decisions published by the BOE or ECB, or their press conferences. With some doubting the ECB's newly minted forward guidance ("key rates to remain at current level or lower for an extended period of time"), ECB President Draghi warned that there is no implicit deadline for the end of the "extended period" and that current market expectations for interest rate hikes in money markets were unwarranted. So far the ECB is struggling only slightly less than the Fed to lower expectations built into the front end of their curves. USD/JPY was inching back towards the 99 handle. Dealers noted that US/JPY 10-year spread is moving back towards 2013 highs, which is a positive for the greenback.

- Oil majors Exxon and Shell both reported terrible Q2 results. Exxon's EPS missed expectations in its Q2 and reported its lowest profit in more than three years. Net income fell 57% y/y, revenue was down 16%. The company said higher drilling costs and falling production (the ninth straight quarterly decline) impacted results. Shell's net was down 57% y/y and the firm took massive write downs on North America shale operations. Production declined. Shares of XOM are down 2% while RDS.A is down 6%. Contrast these results with Conoco, which crushed earnings expectations on another incremental production increase and a raised FY production forecast. COP is up 1.5%.

- Major automakers reported another strong month of sales for July. GM, Ford, Chrysler and Toyota saw double-digit percentage gainsin July sales, with GM and Toyota sales up more than 16% y/y. GM and Ford saw very strong gains in truck sales. GM said its full-size pickup sales were up 44 percent, the best July figure since 2007. Note that overnight, Toyota reported July China sales down 3.5%. Shares of Ford are up 1% and GM is up 2%. Toyota's ADRs are up 4% in US trading.

- Both Cigna and Humana topped Q2 EPS expectations and hiked its FY13 forecasts and offered pretty solid business metrics. However analysts at both Citi and Stifel cut ratings on Humana, warning that the outlook for FY14 is murky. Both firms are in the red on the negative commentary, with CI and HUM down about one percent a piece. P&C major Allstate is up 2.5% in the early going after handily beating top- and bottom-line expectations.

- Consumer staples names Kellogg and Clorox are both in the red this morning. Headline numbers from both firms were solid, but at Clorox volumes fell 3% y/y while Kellogg cut its FY13 revenue outlook somewhat. Procter & Gamble is up 1.5% after slightly raising its FY earnings view.

- The fallout from Wednesday's court ruling to invalidate the Fed's debit-card rules is falling more heavily on Visa than on MasterCard. Note that according to analysts, Visa has already lost a significant amount of US share under the current rules, and conservative estimates suggest it could lose more than $500M in revenue if the Fed is forced to make the rules more restrictive. MA is up 6% this morning and at higher levels than before the announcement, while shares of Visa are flat, still 10% below the pre-ruling level.

- Yesterday, the New York Post wrote that CIT possibly cut credit lines to JC Penny due to concerns about the firm's business. This morning, JC Penny denied the reports and said has ample liquidity to manage its business with $1.5B in cash on hand. Shares of JCP dropped 12% yesterday and regained 6% this morning on the news, although most of those gains have evaporated.

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Reserve Fund: No est v $84.7B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.5B prior
- (IT) Italy July Budget Balance: No est v 14.1B prior
- (IT) Italy Supreme Court could rule on Belusconi in tax fraud appeal
- 12:00 (IT) Italy July New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -5.5% prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico July IMEF Manufacturing Index: 48.3e v 47.5 prior; Non Manufacturing: 52.0e v 51.8 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil July Trade Balance: $450Me v $2.4B prior; Exports: $22.1Be v $21.2B prior; Imports: $21.9Be v $18.8B prior
- 17:00 (US) July Total Vehicle Sales: 15.80e v 15.89M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.40e v 12.43M prior
- (CA) Ontario by Elections in Windsor, London, Ottawa, Toronto



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