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Friday August 2, 2013 - 10:07:55 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Marlets seem to anticipate a good US non-Farm Payroll report

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Marlets seem to anticipate a good US non-Farm Payroll report
Fri, 02 Aug 2013 5:46 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- ECB said to finish bank assets assessment in Feb 2014 with stress tests to start in May
- Italy Supreme Court confirms prison sentence in Berlusconi tax fraud case, but asks appellate court to reexamine public office ban;
- Berlusconi stated that he would continue to hold his seat in the Senate until the appeals court reviewed the public office ban
-Australia Govt cuts 2013/14 GDP view to 2.5% from 2.75%; raised its 2013/14 budget deficit forecast to A$30B from A$18B prior
-China Commerce Min Reiterates H2 exports outlook pessimistic; trade situation complicated and grim but still achievable to hit target
- Japan Cabinet adjust GDP outlook to reflect coming sales tax hike; The plan to raise the sales tax will add 0.2% to gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2013/14 as shoppers rush to buy goods before the first tax hike than subtract 0.6 pct point from GDP in FY14/15
- UK Construction PMI blows out estimate (57.0 v 51.5e) to climb to best level in over three years


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e July 29th (RUB):7.87 T v 7.95T prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending July 27th (y/y): +13.0% v -1.2% prior
- (UK) July Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 3.1%e
- (HU) Hungary May Final Trade Balance: 641.4M v 653.2M prior
- (ES) Spain July Net Unemployment M/M: -64.9K v -75Ke; 5th staright month of improvement
- (CH) Swiss July PMI Manufacturing: 57.4 v 52.4e; highest since May 2011
- (EU) ECB 169M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 25M prior; 78.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 82.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 163.6 v 161.6K tons prior
- (NO) Norway July Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (BR) Brazil July FIPE CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e
- (UK) July PMI Construction: 57.0 v 51.5e; third straight month of growth and highest level since June 2010.
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold an undetermined amount vs. INR150B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2032 and 2035 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,675,
DAX flat at 8,410, CAC-40 +0.10% at 4,045, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,545, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 16,754, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,701

- Equity markets in Europe are currently mixed, as traders remain cautious ahead of the US monthly payrolls report. Banks are mostly lower, amid disappointing results from RBS. However, insurers are broadly higher, supported by better than expected earnings from Axa and Allianz. Resource-related firms are trading mixed, in line with what has been seen for commodity prices.

- UK Movers [Inchcape +8% (H1 results above ests, buyback), Man Group +6% (outflows less than feared), Inmarsat +6% (H1 sales above ests), International Consolidated Airlines +3% (H1 Rev rose y/y), Rexam +2% (raised dividend); RBS -4% (disappointing H1 results for markets unit), Antofagasta -2% (broker commentary)]
- Germany Movers [Fuchs Petrolub +4.5% (H1 results above ests), Allianz +1.4% (Q2 results above ests); Bauer -7% (cuts outlook), Lufthansa -3.5% (Q2 results below ests), Suedzucker -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- France Movers [Axa +2.5% (H1 results above ests), Renault +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Spain movers [Fomento +4 (broker commentary), Amadeus +1.5% (H1 results above ests)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -4% (H1 results below ests, cut forecast), Mediaset -2.5% (Berlusconi ruling)]
- Belgium Movers [Arseus +10% (H1 results above ests), Ageas +2.5% (H1 results above ests, share buyback)]

Speakers:
- Portugal govt would like to issue medium and long-term debt this fall when market conditions allow a sale to take place

- Czech PM Rusnok: Govt will not exceed the 3% budget deficit to GDP ratio
- Fitch: South Africa banks are facing headwinds from the economic environment
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao reiterated view that undue volatility in fx markets was harmful for both growth and stability. The RBI would roll back FX tightening measures only after the central bank determined stability had been restored in the currency market.
- China PBoC Q2 Monetary Report reiterated it would to continue to implement monetary policy and fine-tune action when necessary via numerous tools (including RRR). It reiterated to stabilize inflationary expectations and could not be blindly optimistic on inflation. To keep basic Yuan exchange rate stability and support Yuan in cross border trade. It reiterated it pledge to curb speculative property purchases. PBoC will push ahead with market-driven interest rates and l guide stable operations of market rates
- India Housing Min: Govt considering FDI in real estate industry
- China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to keep fuel prices unchanged
- China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) noted that Local Govt loan risks are manageable. LGFV risks were lower than normal loans. It added that fiscal funds might be used to bailout some local financing vehicles. It saw no change in property refinancing policy.
- IMF reiterated its view that Yuan currency exchange rate was seen undervalued by 5-10% (**Note: Back in June 2012 IMF's Lipton stated that CNY currency was 'moderately undervalued' (compares to prior view that it was 'substantially undervalued')
- Japan PM Abe said to want to compile a mid-term fiscal plan by next week
- Japan Cabinet office noted that FY14/15 GDP growth to slow from effects of planned sales tax hike. The plan to raise the sales tax would add 0.2% to gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal 2013/14 as shoppers rushed to buy goods before the first tax hike. Thus the Cabinet raised its FY13/14 GDP growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% and cut itss FY14/15 real GDP growth forecast to around 1.0% (factors in sales tax hike) and nominal GDP of about 3.2% from 2.8% prior

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The focus in FX will come from NFP data. The recent spat of good data is lifting US bond yields. The ADP employment report, the 5-year low in weekly jobless claims and a strong employment index in the ISM release ll raised the risk of a firm Non-Farm Payroll reading today. Some dealers noting that a better-than-expected NFP could pucsh the EUR/USD pair towards 1.30 but a reading near market expectations (+165-185K) would likely keep the Euro above 1.31
- GBP was firmer following UK Construction PMI data that blew out expectations (57.0 v 51.5e) to climb to best level in over three years. The GBP/USD pair climbed 50 pips higher to test 1.5150
- Dealers noted that US/JPY 10-year yield spread continued be a positive factor for the greenback. The pair was edging back towards the parity level.
- AUD/USD remained under pronounced pressure staying below the $0.89 handle throughout the session. During the Asian session press reports noted that Australian budget would feature expectation of higher unemployment and lower growth rates than previously expected. Analysts are expecting the RBA to again cut rates when it meets early Tuesday.

Political/In the Papers:
- IMF Chief Lagarde: Policies of five major economies unbalanced; world economy could be 3% bigger if appropriate monetary policies were implemented; There are risks to the global economy related to Japan, China's slowdown and Fed policy exit; Spain is heading in the right direction, may be turning corner.
- (EU) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard comments on a Richmond Fed paper which was critical of the ECB
-(GR) Greece civil servant unions to strike for 24-hrs on Friday, Aug 2nd after the govt published names of the workers being moved into the mobility scheme - Greek press
-(CY) Bank of Cyprus indicates that it has been reinstated as an eligible counterparty by the ECB
-(IT) Italy Supreme Court confirms prison sentence in Berlusconi tax fraud case, but asks appellate court to reexamine public office ban - press; Confirms that Berlusconi to serve one year (commuted from four years under a 2006 amnesty agreement) of house arrest or community service (in lieu of prison time due to his age); Asks lower court to "redefine" length of public office ban, which the lower court set at a 5-year ban.
-(IT) Berlusconi PDL party ally: Supreme Court ruling in Berlusconi tax fraud case will not have repercussions for the coalition government
-(UK) NIESR raises 2013 and 2014 GDP growth forecasts citi rise in the prospects for consumer spending growth
-(US) PIMCO's Crescenzi: sees slow and gradual recovery for US economy; Payrolls of 175K could lead to conversation of a taper starting in September.
- (CN) China economic situation in H2 may be grim - People's Daily
-USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1817 v 6.1305 prior close (weakest setting since May 30th)
-CN) Beijing July avg new home price reaches record high - Beijing press
-(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: No plans to step down from role as Fin Min; Does not expect sales tax hike to cause slowdown like it did in 1997.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills

- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e July 26th: No est v $279.2B prior
- 08:30 (US) July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +185Ke v +195Kprior; Change in Private Payrolls: +195Ke v +202K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +2Ke v -6K prior
- 08:30 (US) July Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.6% prior; Underemployment Rate: no est v 14.3% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +160K prior
- 08:30 (US) July Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Personal Income: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior

- 08:30 (US) Jun PCE Deflator M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.1% prior
- 09:45 (US) July ISM New York: No est v 47.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun Factory Orders: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) Possible revision to Jun Durable Goods Data
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark July Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 490.6B prior
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on U.S. Economy in Boston
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China July Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.9 prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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