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Friday August 2, 2013 - 15:23:53 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Markets Suffer Mild Heartburn Post Payrolls US Market Update: Markets Suffer Mild Heartburn Post Payrolls
Fri, 02 Aug 2013 11:06 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e July 26th: $280.2B v $279.2B prior
- (US) July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +162K v +185Ke; Change in Private Payrolls:+161 K v +195Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +6K v +2Ke
- (US) July Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.5%e; Underemployment Rate: 14.0% v 14.3% prior; Change in Household Employment: +227K v +160K prior
- (US) July Avg Hourly Earning M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.2%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.4 v 34.5e
- (US) Jun Personal Income: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Personal Spending: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (US) Jun PCE Deflator M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (US) Jun PCE Core M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (US) July ISM New York: 67.8 v 47.0 prior
- (US) Jun Factory Orders: 1.5% v 2.3%e

- US equities are recovering from earlier declines in mid-morning trading. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.4%, the S&P500 is down 0.2% and the Nasdaq is down 0.2%.

- The miss in the NFP data is being taken in stride this morning as analysts handicap how it will likely affect the Fed's plans for tapering. Many have highlighted that most of the job gains were concentrated in the low-paying retail and service sector. Both hourly wages and the average work week contracted, while the June NFPs were revised lower from +195K to +188K. Nevertheless, PIMCO said it would likely require another miss in a key data report to change the Fed's outlook for beginning its exit from QE.

- Ahead of this morning's payrolls data, the greenback had retreated from weekly highs against the major pairs on last-minute higher revisions to the NFP estimates. Just ahead of the jobs numbers, EUR/USD was testing below 1.3200, then after the disappointing data was right back at strong upside resistance around 1.3300. USD/JPY fell 100 pips.

- Former FOMC dissenter Bullard spoke in an interview this morning. He called the falling unemployment rate good news but reiterated that inflation remains below target. Note that the FOMC statement on Wednesday addressed his concern about potential low inflation, allowing him to withdraw his dissent. Bullard also said the alteration of Fed language (to modest economic expansion from moderate expansion) was too small a change to actually parse.

- AIG took another big step toward normality with Q2 earnings as it reinstated a dividend and launched a new share repurchase program. The firm also reported strong growth at its property casualty insurance unit, showing it was on track to improve profitability. Shares of AIG are up 3.5%.

- Like the rest of Big Oil, Chevron had a rather poor Q2. Upstream and downstream earnings declined y/y as did production levels. Bottom-line earnings missed expectations. Shares of CVX are down 2%. Unlike the other independent refiners, Tesoro did not manage to outperform due to some maintenance issues. TSO is down 2.8%.

- Michael Dell and Silver Lake have come very close to clinching their buyout deal for Dell after boosting their offer to at least $13.88 (and likely as much as $13.96) by offering to pay shareholders additional dividends after the deal closes. In exchange, the board will alter the voting rules to favor their deal, leaving Icahn out in the cold at the new special meeting, scheduled for September 12th.

***Looking Ahead***
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on U.S. Economy in Boston
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia July Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.2% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China July Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.9 prior




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