Monday August 5, 2013 - 03:44:57 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 05-Aug-2013 -0335 GMT
Downside pressure eases a bit for Equities.
The Dow (15658.36, +0.19%) rose strongly on Friday on a weaker than expected US NFP figure. Ironical, isn't it. But, that's the way it is. While support at 15500 holds a further rise towards 16000 can be seen.
Nikkei (14328.70, -0.95%) is down a bit but is in an overall uptrend. Long term support at 13600 is likely to hold. At the same time, it needs to rise past 14372 to negate a possible Double Top. Shanghai (2032.63, +0.16%) is up, trading above earlier resistance near 2025. Good Support coming up at 2000 now, which seems like it may hold. A rise past 2050 would increase chances of a further rise towards 2100.
The Nifty (5677.90) is down. Charts show crucial Support near 5650 region. Nifty may see itself consolidating in the 5650- 6000 region in the near term if the Support holds.
Mixed picture in Commodities. Copper remains at a very crucial juncture.
Brent (108.99) has come off a bit from Resistance at 110. Support seen at 108 in near term. Market may be ranged between 108-110 in near term, debating whether to break above 110 or below 108.
Gold (1314) is at a crossroad, trading just below crucial Resistance at 1325-27. Will it break above this Resistance to move up towards 1340? Or will it start falling back towards 1285 and lower? No clear indication as of now. Need to wait and watch.
Silver (19.91) remains in a long-term downtrend with crucial Resistance near 20.50 and chances of fall towards 18.50.
Copper (3.1590) has come off from Resistance at 3.20. Trades at a very big/ crucial long-term crossroad. Needs to decide between recovery above 3.20 or further long-term decline below 3.10-00. Watch carefully.
Most Major currencies appear to be ranged. The R-currencies have gained a bit on Friday.
The Euro (1.3276) trades quiet below crucial Resistance at 1.3340. We see chances of fall towards 1.31 in coming days. The Pound (1.5272) is absolutely ranged between 1.51-54 for the next few days. Having bounced from 1.51 on Friday, it can move up towards 1.54 this week. One can keep trading this range for a while.
Dollar-Yen (98.80) also appears to be ranged between 98.50-100.00. The Euro-Yen Cross (131.15) is in a mild uptrend with Support at 130.50. But, upside may be limited to 133.05 for now.
The Aussie (0.8860) has been falling for the last 3 months having broken below 1.0240 in May. It is trading near its 100-mth MA (0.8880) now but could be in danger of further fall towards 0.87.
The R-currencies had strengthened on Friday evening on a lesseer than expected US NFP data. Dollar-Rupee (61.10) may see a range of 61.50-60.50 this week.
The US 10-Yr (2.62%) came off from levels near 2.75% on Friday as the US NFP data (162K) came in lower than the expectation of 180K. The market has drawn comfort from that even though Unemployment rate (7.4%) fell further fom 7.6% earlier.
While below 2.75%, there can be some chances of the US 10-Yr dipping towards 2.40% in August as the market plays "Will it/ won't it" regarding whether the Fed will actually start tapering from September or not. The next FOMC meet is on 18-Sep.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.33%) is likely to remain elevated for some more time, with some chances of further rise towards 8.63% as well.
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Retail Sales
...Previous 1.03 %
...Actual 0.10 % ...Previous 0.30 %
...Actual 57.40 ...Previous 51.90
...Actual 162 K ...Previous 195K
US Unemployment Rate
...Actual 7.4 % ...Previous 7.6 %
US Personal Income
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous 0.51%
US PCE Price Index M/M
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous 0.40 %
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