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Monday August 5, 2013 - 10:25:25 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Data flow from Europe continues to improve

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Data flow from Europe continues to improve
Mon, 05 Aug 2013 5:52 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- European and Chinese economic releases will be the main highlight given the post-payroll lull in US data
- China and Russia ban shipments of New Zealand's dairy products after reports of bacteria contamination in Fonterra powder
- Australian retail sales came in flat vs. 0.4%e; solidifying expectations for an RBA rate cut
- Australia PM Rudd sets Sept 7th as the date for national elections
- BRICS members PMI mixed, China improves while Russia and India contract
- European PMI Services data mostly beats (exception was Germany)
- UK PMI Services blows out expectations with Composite reading the best since records began in 1998


***Economic Data***
- (MY) Malaysia Jun Trade Balance (MYR) 4.3B v 3.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -6.9% v -7.4%e; Imports Y/Y: 1.3% v +4.8%e
- (IN) India July HSBC/Markit Services PMI: 47.9 v 51.7 prior; fist contraction since Aug 2010
- (RU) Russia July Services PMI: 49.5e v 48.8 prior; second straight contraction and lowest reading since Aug 2010

- (CH) Q2 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 1.20 v 1.17 prior
- (SE) Sweden July PMI Services: 56.6 v 46.7e; first growth in 5 months
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Aug 2nd: 320.7B v 322.4B prior
- (CZ) Czech July Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.7% v -0.5%e
- (TR) Turkey July CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 8.9% v 8.9%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 6.1% v 5.6% prior
- (TR) Turkey July PPI M/M: 1.0% v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 6.6% v 5.2% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.8%e
- (EU) ECB 19M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 169M prior; 87.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 78.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (ES) Spain July Services PMI: 48.5 v 48.1e; highest reading since Jun 2011 and 25th straight contraction
- (SE) Sweden Jun Service Production M/M: -0.4% v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.5%e
- (IT) Italy July PMI Services: 48.7 v 46.5e; (26th straight month of contraction but highest reading in 2 years
- (FR) France July Final PMI Services: 48.6 v 48.3e; (11th straight monthly contraction but highest reading in 11-months)
- (DE) Germany July Final PMI Services: 51.3 v 52.5e; confirmed 3rd straight month of expansion
- (EU) Euro Zone July Final PMI Services: 49.8 v 49.6e ; PMI Composite: 50.5 v 50.4e; confirms first growth since January 2012

- (TW) Taiwan July Foreign Reserves: $409.1B v $406.6B prior
- (UK) July PMI Services: 60.2 v 57.3e; highest since Dec 2006
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Sentix Investor Confidence: -4.9 v -10.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.5% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.3%e

- (RO) Romania Central Bank cut Interest Rates by 50bps to 4.50%; more than expected

Fixed Income:
- (PH) Philippines sold total PHP13.85B vs. PHP20B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.29B vs. 2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 2.21B vs. indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.00% v -0.01%prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.43x prior
- Sold 1.08B vs. indicated in 6-month Bills; Yield +0.021% v +0.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 2.6x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,661,
DAX +0.10% at 8,419, CAC-40 +0.30% at 4,059, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 8,596, FTSE MIB +0.10% at 16,794, SMI +0.30% at 7,984, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,704

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, tracking the gains seen in US equity markets on Friday' session, as most of the European PMI services data, showed increases on a m/m basis. European banks are trading mixed, amid the release of disappointing earnings from HSBC. Shares of Lloyds have outperformed on speculation related to future dividend payouts. Credit Agricole, which is due to report earnings on Tuesday's session, has gained over 2%. Resource related firms are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices.

- UK movers [Thomas Cook +5% (broker commentary), Lloyds +3.5% (speculation related to dividend), Drax Group +3% (broker commentary), Vedanta +2.5% (speculation related to CEO position); HSBC -3% (H1 profits below ests), Morgan Sindall -1% (H1 profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Air Berlin +7% (positive comments related to cost cutting plan), ProsiebenSat +2% (broker commentary); RWE -2% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Natixis +2% (speculated cost cuts), Veolia Environmental +1.4% (H1 profits above ests), STMicroelectronics +1% (new CFO); Danone -1% (concerns related to shipments of infant formula in China)]
- The Netherlands movers [PostNL -10% (cut FY forecast), Akzo Nobel -1.5% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras commented that the country was discussing financing gap with partners and stressed that Greece was fully covered until Aug 2014. He reiterated view of expecting a primary surplus in 2013

- Portugal Govt said to be seeking to reduce the planned spending cuts for 2014 to 2.0B from 3.6B. Govt fears that Constitutional Court might block some of the proposed cuts
- Germany's financial regulator Bafin said Germany could exit the talks related to new global risk rules for insurance firms
- Poland Central Bank Q3 Credit Survey expected a significant rise in consumer loans
- Australia Industry Min Carr commented that the AUD/USD currency pair needed to fall a lot further from current levels and would like to see the A$ back around $0.80 to aid the local auto market
- India Central Bank (RBI) Sinha: RBI doesn't encourage a 2nd restructuring in Microfinance companies

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX price action continued to reflect a reversal in sentiment after US data registered a string of misses in expectations while European data continued to improve confirming beliefs that the worst might be over for the EMU. Thus the overall scenario that the Fed policy tapering might need to be re-examined.
- The EUR/USD continued to probe the 1.33 handle but despite the better PMI Services readings the pair continued to have difficulties breeching last week's highs at 1.3345
- The GBP benefitted from better PMI Services data reading. GBP/USD tested above 1.5350 area
- The USD/JPY maintained a heavy tone in the session weighed down by the drop in the Nikkei225 Index. The pair continued to retrace after the failure to hold above the 100.00 level last week. Dealers noting of some support at 97.50 ahead of the BoJ policy decision later this week

Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) China has halted all of Fonterra's milk powder imports. This followed press reports that the company warned customers that some products may be contaminated with botulism. The ban applied to exports from both New Zealand and Australia. Dairy represented about a quarter of New Zealand's overall value of exports.
-(GR) Greece PM Samaras to meet with President Obama during 3-day visit to US this week - Greek press
- (GR) German Green Party Leader: Greece debt relief may be necessary, haircut for Greek official creditors may be unavoidable - press
-(ES) IMF: Key imbalances in Spain's economy are rapidly correcting, outlook is difficult and risks are high; unemployment to remain above 25% for next five years; Sees Spain 2013 GDP -1.16%, flat in 2014, +0.3% in 2015.
- (US) US extended embassy closings to Aug 10th. 19 US embassies and consulates to remain closed on heightened al Qaeda terror threat
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Lower inflation boundary should be 1%; entire impact of sequester may not have been felt and could be less than anticipated; Latest US jobs report is right in line with economic trends seen by the Fed. Unemployment should continue to fall gradually.
- Moody reaffirmed Australia's sovereign rating at AAA with a stable outlook
- Apple [AAPL] received favorable patent ruling over Samsung. The US Trade Rep overturned the ITC imposed import ban on some Apple devices in Samsung patent infringement case over the weekend. The Obama Administration vetoed the ban on imports of some Apple mobile devices that Samsung won before the US International Trade Commission in June.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.5% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.7B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil July PMI Services: No est v 51.0 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July Consumer Confidence Index: 94.8e v 93.3 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) July ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 53.1e v 52.2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:45 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on the Economy in Portland, OR
- 17:00 (US) EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Jun Trade Balance: No est v A$670Mprior
- (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut interest rates by 25bps to 2.50%

 

 

 

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