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Service PMI data mostly higher. U.S.and U.K. beat by a mile
|Service PMI data mostly higher. U.S.and U.K. beat by a mile|
6 August 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR: Far East: AU- Trade, Employment, RBA Decision. Europe: GB- Mfg/Ind output, DE- Factory Orders North America: CA/US- Trade, 3-yr Auction, API Energy
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Trade, Employment, RBA Decision. GB- Mfg/Industrial Output, DE- Factory Orders, CA/US Trade,
- Final Services July PMI releases remain on an improving track although the latest Eurozone revisions to flash estimates were mixed. The U.K. Services PMI was a much stronger reading of 60.2 vs. 57.4 in June. U.K. continues to far beat expectations. Local observers continue to doubt the sustainability of the U.K. data rebound. See the FOREX FORUM for key data and charts as they are released.
- U.S. Service PMI data were also stronger than expected, although the employment sub-component was weaker.
- As PMI data, it seems to us the reports have been running a ahead of hard economic statistics. We now take them with a grain of salt.
- The rest of the week features a few major items, such as Australian and Canadian employment data, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan rate decisions, plus a number of other items.
- Recent U.S. data still suggest that a tapering of the Fed Asset Purchase program is could come as early as September, notwithstanding soft U.S. July employment data.
- Under these circumstances, we typically could see the USD remain in choppy trade for the balance of the summer and then gain against most major currencies in the fall, but we would need a sustained improvement in the data first.
- For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar and see the FOREX FORUM for key data and charts.
||JGB 0.77% +4bp
||Asia Close Mixed|
||Bund 1.64% -4bp
||U.S. 2.61% +4bp
||North America: Mixed|
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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Tue 21 Nov
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Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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