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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European data continues to show improvement; Italy Q2 GDP beat estimates

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European data continues to show improvement; Italy Q2 GDP beat estimates
Tue, 06 Aug 2013 5:42 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC alternate): In favor of tapering in the fall, investors cannot rely upon a "Fed put"; Should start reducing bond buying in September unless see disturbing data
- IMF's Schiff: Japan reliance on monetary policy not sustainable; Japan needs to fully implement the 'three arrows' of Abe's plan
- RBA cuts Cash Target Rate by 25bps to 2.50% (record low) and as expected); less dovish spin in its statement thus narrowing the scope for further easing
- Australia Jun Trade Balance slightly below expectations but registers 4th straight surplus
- UK July Halifax House Prices registers its 6th straight monthly gain
- UK Jun Industrial and Manufacturing Production data continues string of economic beats
- Italy Q2 GDP come in better than expected (-0.2% vs. -0.4%e) but still contracts for the 8th straight quarter (longest on record)


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jun Preliminary Leading Index CI: 107.0 v 107.3e; Coincident Index: 105.2 v 105.1e
- (IE) Ireland July Investec Services PMI: 57.6 v 54.9 prior; highest reading since Apr 2007 and 12th straight month of expansion
- (FI) Finland May GDP Indicator: -0.8 v -2.2% prior
- (UK) July Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; 3M/Y: 4.6% v 4.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +1.2 v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Jun Industrial Output Y/Y: -5.3% v -2.5%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -11.1% v -15.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Jun Trade Balance (CZK): 33.0B v 31.2Be
- (EU) ECB 20M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 19M prior; 85.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 87.3B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -5.1% v -4.2% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -2.1% v -3.5%e
- (UK) July New Car Registrations Y/Y: 12.7% v 13.4% prior
- (UK) Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.8%e
- (UK) Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.9% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v +1.0%e
- (IT) Italy Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.4%e (eighth straight quarterly contraction); Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.2e

- (CY) Cyprus July CPI Harmonized M/M: -1.1% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v +0.8% prior
- (GR) Greece July CPI Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.4% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B in 5% 2015 Bonds; Yield: 1.58% v 1.35% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold 770M vs. 770M indicated in 1.75% 2023 RAGB Bonds; Avg Yield 2.072% v 1.903% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.24x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 812.5M vs. 625M in 26-week bills; Avg Yield: 4.20% v 4.20% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77 x v 1.70x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF810.2M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.087% v -0.096% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 99.4B in 7-day main Refi Tender vs. 107Be
- (EU) ECB allotted 3.9B in 1-month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 3.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF55B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.98% v 3.97% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.00x v 1.66x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 4.5B in 1.25% 2018 Gilts; Avg Yield: 1.405% v 1.422% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.37 x v 1.33x prior ; Tail bps v 1.6bps prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 flat at 6,620,
DAX +0.30% at 8,422, CAC-40 +0.24% at 4,059, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 8,590, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 16,810, SMI +0.80% at 8,038, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,703

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, led, by gains in the Spanish IBEX-35 index. European banks are currently trading mixed. Outperformers in the banking sector include Standard Chartered and Credit Agricole, while laggards include Lloyds after recent gains. During the US morning, UniCredit is due to report its H1 results. Resource-related firms are broadly lower, amid the mixed price action seen for commodity prices. UK retailers are mostly higher, supported by BRC retail sales figures for July.

- UK movers [Rotork +7% (H1 profits rose y/y), Standard Chartered +3% (H1 sales rose y/y, raised dividend), Legal & General +3% (H1 profits rose y/y), InterContinental Hotels +3% (raised dividend) ;Greggs -7% (cut outlook), Fresnillo -6.5% (cut dividend), Hill & Smith -5% (profit warning)]
- Germany movers [Xing +11% (Q2 EBITDA +15%), Praktiker +8% (reached supplier agreement), Sky Deutschland +6.5% (Q2 results above ests), Deutsche Post +3% (raised profit forecast), Bayer +1.5% (data on RIOCIGUAT); Salzgitter -10% (profit warning), Munich Re -4% (Q2 net below ests), Lanxess -3% (cautious outlook), SDF -2.5% (S&P placed rating on watch negative), Merck -2.5% (Q2 net profit below ests)]
- France movers [Credit Agricole +1.5% (Q2 results above ests)]
Italy movers [Impreglio +4.5% (swung to H1 net profit); Pirelli -3.5% (reported Q2 results and gave FY sales outlook)]
- The Netherlands [DSM +5% (Q2 results above ests)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Praet (Belgium) stated that forward guidance included an easing bias and reiterated the view that ECB had not reached the lower bound of interest rates

- ECB's Coeure (France): Many EMU banks have limited room to expand lending thus making alternatives more pressing
- Turkey Central Bank July Inflation Report noted that TRY currency depreciation was starting to affect core inflation. CPI rise spurred by weaker Lira and base effect but inflation was seen slowing downtrend in coming months
- India said to appoint Raghuram Rajan as next RBI governor. Rajan currently serves as Chief Econ Adviser to Finance Ministry
- BoJ said to have purchased 20.8B of ETF's
- Daiwa analyst Grace Wu: China could cut RRR nine times by total 450bps between 2013-15 period
- China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Expected most Chinese regions to achieve their growth targets. China could issue Beijing regional development plan
- US State Dept warns all US citizens to leave Yemen immediately

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The European economic data continued to be constructive and aided the Euro and GBP currency pairs.
- The EUR/USD remained contained in its recent range but still trying to find the momentum for a sustainable break above the 1.33 level.
- The UK parade of better economic data continued with July Industrial and Manufacturing data beating expectations. The GBP/USDS was inching it ways towards the 1.54 neighborhood as a result.
- The USD/USD regained a foothold above the 98 handle in late Asia aided by the rise in the Nikkei and benefited from news that the Japan civil service pension fund may up its allocation to stocks. Dealers noted that any break of 97.50 could open up downside momentum to retest the 94 area. The level was defended by Japanese importers earlier today
- AUD moved higher following the RBA rate decision. Dealers noted that the statement was less dovish compare to a recent speech given by Gov Stevens in late July. RBA left out of its rate statement this time around - namely that the outlook for inflation may provide some scope for further easing.
- China likely to control appreciation pace in CNY currency (Yuan) and possible allow some depreciation to ease pressure on exports

Political/In the Papers:
- US President Obama to propose changes to the mortgage finance system today. Includes the elimination of Fannie and Freddie, replacing them with private loans which will then be securitized, Govt re-insurance to back stop private firms in the event of a crisis
- (US) S&P's Chambers: Outlook for US is more constructive now than it was in June, when S&P raised the outlook on the US sovereign rating to stable from negative
- (US) Fed's Fisher: Should start reducing bond buying in September unless see disturbing data - comments to reporters; Not seeing any risks of deflation.
- (UK) UniCredit chief economist Erik Nielsen looks at the options for the BoE in terms of forward guidance - FT; Suggests if the BoE adopts a soft version of forward guidance this could disappoint markets
- (CN) Asian Development Bank (ADB) economist Rhee: Might again cut China 2013, 2014 GDP forecasts - financial press interview
- USD/CNY: (CN) China may allow small amount of depreciation in CNY - financial press
- (JP) Japan pension fund could reduce allocation target of yen bonds from 80%; increase domestic stocks from 5% - financial press
- (JP) IMF's Schiff: Japan reliance on monetary policy not sustainable; Japan needs to fully implement the 'three arrows' of Abe's plan; calls for Japan to lower d
- (IT) Italy PM Letta: Reiterates need to change electoral laws quickly, without change the old laws would only deliver another jolt of instability - Italy press
- (ES) Fitch comments on Spain regional fiscal targets: The introduction of individual 2013 deficit targets for Spain's autonomous communities will have a mixed impact
- (FR) IMF recommends France should slow its fiscal consolidation program in 2014; IMF forecasts France 2013 GDP at -0.2%, 2014 at +0.8% (in line with the IMF's WEO issued in July); Forecasts unemployment rate at 11.2% in 2013, 11.6% for 2014, and 11.4% in 2015

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FI) Finland Finance Ministry holds talks to draft 2014 Budget
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Data on Banks
- (MX) Banamex Survey of Economists
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Jun Factory Orders M/M: +1.0%e v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: +0.3%e v -2.0% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 3.0B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: % v +0.009% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.80x prior (July 9th)
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 192.5B
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$510Me v -C$0.30B prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Trade Balance: -$43.5Be v -$45.0B prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Leading Indicators M/M: No est v 0.02prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil July Vehicle Production: No est v 320.8K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 318.6K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 51.2K prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.5e v 47.1 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jun JOLTs Job Openings: 3.9Me v 3.828M prior
- 10:00 (UK) July NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Vehicle Production: No est v 266.4K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 83.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 225.8K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $45B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Aug Short-Term Crude Outlook:
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks to Reporters in Chicago
- 16:30 (US) Weekly

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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