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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE initiates forward guidance with an unemployment threshold

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE initiates forward guidance with an unemployment threshold
Wed, 07 Aug 2013 5:51 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Risk aversion sentiment crept back into the markets as renewed concern about an early end to the Fed tapering of QE weighed upon global equity; Nikkei slumps 4%
- Swiss annual consumer prices were steady in July compared to a year ago, breaking a series of year-on-year falls stretching back to September 2011 when the Swiss franc was trading near record highs
- BOE initiates forward guidance with an unemployment threshold of 7.0%


***Economic Data***
- (MY) Malaysia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.7%e; Manufacturing Sales Value Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.5% prior
- (CH) Swiss July SECO Consumer Confidence: -9 v -1e
- (ZA) South Africa July Gross Reserves: $47.3B v $47.6Be; Net Reserves: $45.2B v $45.3Be
- (FI) Finland Jun Preliminary Trade Balance: 260M v 66M prior
- (PH) Philippines July Foreign Reserves: $82.9B v $81.6B prior
- (FR) Bank of France July Business Sentiment: 95 v 97e
- (FR) France Jun Trade Balance: -4.4B v -5.4Be
- (CH) Swiss July Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 434.9B v 431.0Be
- (HU) Hungary July Foreign Currency Reserves 33.7B v 34.3B
- (EU) ECB 21M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 20M prior; 84.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 85.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CH) Swiss July CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.1%e; first time non-negative annual reading since October 2011
- (SE) Sweden July Budget Balance (SEK): -8.9B v -6.4B prior
- (AT) Austria July Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v +0.4% prior
- (TW) Taiwan July Trade Balance: $3.2B v $2.3Be; Exports Y/Y: 1.6% v 4.9%e prior; Imports Y/Y: -7,6% v -0.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.5 v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: -5.5 v -4.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 3.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.1% v 2.8% prior
- (CZ) Czech July International Reserves: $44.5B v $43.6B prior
- (UK) July Lloyds Employment Confidence: -22 v -33 prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July Foreign Currency Reserves:: $299.9B v $303.6B prior
- (SG) Singapore July Foreign Reserves: $261.1B v $259.8B prior
- (UK) Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report : MPC provided forward guidance in which it would not tighten policy until jobless at 7% threshold (current level is 7.8%)

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior
- (RU) Russia sold RUB10B vs. RUB10B indicated in 2023 bonds; yield: % vs. guidance of 7.35-7.40%
- (DE) Germany sold 3.32B in 0.25% 2018 BOBL; Avg Yield: 0.64% v 0.63% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.9x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,556,
DAX -0.80% at 8,233, CAC-40 -0.40% at 4,018, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,484, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 16,734, SMI -0.20% at 7,980, S&P 500 Futures -0.50% at 1,686

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly lower, as trades assess the Bank of England's comments related to forward guidance. In terms of sectors, banks are mixed (Unicredit up after earnings, Natixis lower post earnings, ING gaining post earnings). Resource related firm are mostly lower in line with the weakness in commodity prices. Also, the sector has been weighed down by earnings from Randgold. Insurers are mixed, following earnings reports from HannoverRe, Old Mutual and Delta Lloyd.

- UK movers [Old Mutual +5% (H1 ROE rose y/y), Ferrexpo +3.5% (H1 sales above ests); Tui Travel -4.5% (profit-taking after Q3 results), Randgold -4% (Q2 profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Kloeckner +5% (Q2 profits above ests), SDF +4% (rebound from Tuesday's losses), Symrise +4% (H1 profits and sales rose y/y), HannoverRe +1.5% (Q2 profits above ests); Brenntag -5% (Q2 results below ests), Beiersdorf -3% (Q2 results below ests)]
- France movers [Rexel -4% (share placement), Natixis -2.5% (Q2 profit declined y/y)]
- Italy movers [Unicredit +2.7% (Q2 results above ests); Saipem (-3% accounting probe)]
- The Netherlands movers [ING +3.5% (Q2 results above ests); Delta Lloyd -8.5% (H1 profits declined y/y)]

Speakers:
- Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report saw the MPC provide forward guidance in which it would not tighten policy until jobless at 7% threshold (current level is 7.8%). Would do more QE if warranted and jobless over 7% and could tighten policy if CPI 2.5% or above in 18-24 months.
The BOE raised its growth forecast (as expected) with 2013 GDP growth at 1.5% vs 1.2% seen in May. Inflation view was tweaked to CPI seen at 1.96% in 2 years time on 375B in QE and market rates vs 2.02% in May
- China senior SAFE official commented that H2 currency appreciation for CNY (yuan) would not be as fast as the H1 pace (**Reminder: Yuan advanced to 19-Year high earlier today at 6.1206 in OTC trading)
- China Commerce Ministry(MOFCOM) official Shen Danyang stated that it would not take a long time for China to approve and release Shanghai Free-trade-Zone plan. China probe on EU wine and polysilicon were still ongoing and was willing to find a better solution to the matter
- Philippines Planning Sec Balisacan commented that country would not be badly affected by slowdown in China as its source of growth was largely domestic
- S&P: Recovery for India banking sector unlikely in next 18-24 months citing slow economic growth. Deteriorating asset quality and earnings are likely to constrain the credit profiles of Indian banks over the next two years. Expected the banking sector's nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio to surge to 3.9% of total loans in fiscal 2014 (ending March 31, 2014) and to 4.4% in fiscal 2015, compared with 3.4% in fiscal 2013
- Japanese Govt 300 tons of contaminated water per days was leaking into the sea from the Fukushima plant. And plan to reduce water leakage to 60 tons per day as early as Dec
- India was said to be considering to allow State banks to use external commercial borrowings (ECB) to raise tier-1 capital and easing overseas borrowing rules for companies to use ECB funds for debt
- North Korea to lift temporary suspension of Kaesong operations and allow South Koreans back into industrial complex. North Korea also offered working level talks with South Korea at Kaesong facility (Gaeseong) on Aug 14th

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion sentiment crept back into the markets as renewed concern about an early end to the Fed tapering of QE weighed upon global equity markets. The USD and JPY currencies were the main benefactors of the session. The Nikkei 225 Index was off 4% in the session and this provided the backdrop for a firmer JPY currency. USD/JPY pair hit a 5-week low below 97.00 handle ahead of the BOJ decision on Thursday.
- Nonetheless FX dealers noted that USD overall price action suggested it was in a conundrum. Analysts point out that the US trade deficit was turning out to be much lower than the Commerce Department assumed when preparing the advance estimate of Q2 GDP and that the actual data could add about six-tenths of a percentage point to the running total of Q2 revisions. Yet the greenback had yet to respond. Against G10 currencies (particularly the EUR) the USD appeared to be having real difficulties and could come under pressure over the next few weeks. The 1.3345 level would be a key trigger under that scenario. Dealers noting that against those countries running a current account deficit the USD is king and will extend its rule
- GBP has corrected some of its firmness ahead of today's BoE Inflation Report, where formal policy guidance will be detailed. The BOE initiated forward guidance with an unemployment threshold of 7.0%. It noted that the jobless rate was seen at 7.2% in Q1 2015 so some 18 months before withdrawal of QE. The GBP/USD was weaker upon the release of the quarterly inflation report. The GBP/USD fell 100 pips to approach the 1.52 level while gilt futures surged to test near 112 handle. However, some concerns over inflation saw volatility pick up in the price action.
- AUD/USD backing away from the $0.90 handle to trade down to $0.8950 despite better than expected mortgage lending as traders took profit ahead of the release of July economic data for China over the next two sessions. Analysts were expecting only a modest improvement in export and import growth in upcoming China data.
- The USD/CNY pair hit a 19-year low in session at 6.1189. One senior Chinese official noted that CNY currency appreciation might slow but did not see any depreciation

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) EU's Rehn: Most recent data is indicating an improved outlook but it is too soon to draw any conclusions; Have seen a cautiously positive note in Spain data recently
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Economy will start its recovery in Q3-Q4; negative 2% GDP growth forecast for 2013 is pessimistic; To review property tax laws by end of August; Italy does not need a systemic bad bank
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, FOMC voter): Fed will taper later this year and end QE asset buys in mid 2014; would not rule out taper beginning in September; Expects to see non-farm payrolls growing by average of 175-200K in second half of 2013.
- (US) Fed's Lockhart: Monthly NFP gains of around 180-200K would be the right level to start tapering bond purchases; could taper as early as Sept, would not rule out a move to taper in Oct; There are good reasons to believe that the economy will cope with higher rates, good data suggest the economy could grow without more QE
- (JP) Japan PM adviser Hamada: BOJ should be prepared for more easing if economic recovery falters. Current BOJ easing can hold until Q1-Q2 in 2014 but risks from sales tax hike mighty halt Abenomics trend.
- (JP) Japan Draft midterm fiscal plan noted that the Govt to maintain deficit reduction target to cut primary deficit target in half by 2015. Govt aimed to reduce the deficit in the nation's general account from 23T to 15Tover the next two years and cap the annual issuance of new government bonds at 43T. Govt intended to cut the deficit in the primary balance of the national and local governments from 34T in fiscal 2013 to 17T by fiscal 2015. Govt would consider shrinking a 1.0T bracket for regional stimulus
- (CN) PBoC said to be considering establishing new government agency for forex operation. The plan would establish new internal platform managed by PBoC or independent to invest total of $3.5T reserves, as additional agency China Investment Corp (CIC) as some senior officials and scholars were unhappy with current return.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank 2Q Inflation Report
- (EU) EU Commission President Van Rompuy speaks at Forum Villa d'Este
- (FI) Finland Finance Ministry holds talks to draft 2014 Budget
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Jun Industrial Production M/M: +0.3%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.3%e v -1.0% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v 7.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.5% prior; Industrial Sales YY: No est v -1.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q2 Unemployment Rate: No est v 17.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -8.0% prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell PLN3.0-5.0B in Jan 2016 bonds
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Floating and Fixed Rate Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in 2016 bonds; yield guidance seen between 6.25-6.30%
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 2nd: No est v -3.7% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland July Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 70.6 prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 7.7% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank's Minutes
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Building Permits M/M: -2.3%e v +4.5% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile July Trade Balance: -$325Me v $608.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.5B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.9B prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile July Copper Exports: No est v $3.4B prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Gross Fixed Investment: -0.5%e v +5.9% prior
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary July YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -721.7B prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 56.8e v 55.3 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 56.6 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $ in Notes
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on economy in Washington
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes
- 13:40 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks in Cleveland
- 14:00 (IT) Berlusconi Senate membership questioned by Parliament
- 15:00 (US) Jun Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $19.6B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Current Account Balance: 400Me v 540.7B prior; Adj Current Account: 711.8Be v 623.3B prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Jun Trade Balance: -128.7Be v -906.7B prior
- 21:30 (AU) Australia July Employment Change: +6.0Ke v 10.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.7% prior
- (CN) China July Trade Balance: $26.2Be v $27.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: +0.5%e v -3.1% prior; Imports Y/Y: -0.1%e v -0.7% prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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