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Thursday August 8, 2013 - 10:13:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk appetite aided by China trade components and German Commerzbank results EU Market Update: Risk appetite aided by China trade components and German Commerzbank results
Thu, 08 Aug 2013 5:40 AM EST

- Bank of Korea leaves 7-day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.50% (as expected)
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains monetary base at 60-70T pace; Keeps economic assessment unchanged after 7 consecutive increases
- (AU) Australia July Employment Change hits 4-month low: -10.2K v +6.0Ke
- (CN) China July Trade Balance contains positive surprise: $17.8B v $26.2Be; Exports Y/Y: +5.1% v +0.5%e; Imports Y/Y: +10.9% v -0.1%e ; Imports component particularly impressive ; copper at 7-week high
-Fitch affirmed Germany sovereign rating at AAA; outlook stable
-Czech interim government loses parliamentary confidence vote
- German Trade components register a slight miss while overall surplus improves

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan July Eco Watchers Current Survey: 53.5e v 53.0 prior; Outlook Survey: 54.1e v 53.6 prior
- (CH) Swiss July Unemployment Rate: 3.0% v 2.9%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (DE) Germany Jun Current Account Balance: 17.3B v 16.0Be; Trade Balance: 16.9B v 15.0Be; Imports SA M/M: -0.8% v +0.5%e; Exports M/M: 0.6% v +0.9%e

- (ES) Spain Jun Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -1.9% v -1.2%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -4.6% v -1.6% prior
- (CZ) Czech July Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%e
- (EU) ECB 36M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 21M prior; 68.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 84.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden July Average House Prices (SEK) 2.227M v 2.202M prior
- (NL) Netherlands July CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.5%e
- (NO) Norway Jun Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.3%e
- (GR) Greece May Unemployment Rate: 27.6% v 27.0% prior; fresh record high
- (ZA) South Africa Jun Mining Production Y/Y: -6.2% v +0.5%e; Gold Production Y/Y: -14.1% v -14.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (UK) DMO sold 1.3B in 0.75% Mar I/L 2034 Gilts; Real Yield: 0.080% v 0.126% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.85x v 1.55x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF35B vs. HUF40B indicated in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds


FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,527,
DAX +0.30% at 8,288, CAC-40 +0.30% at 4,053, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 8,650, FTSE MIB +0.80% at 16,978, SMI -0.30% at 7,951, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,692

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, supported by trade data out of China. Additionally, markets have gained aimed the release of better than expected earnings from Aviva, Rio Tinto, Deutsche Telekom, Commerzbank, Henkel and Adecco.
In terms of sectors, banks are mostly higher (KBC and Commerzbank reported better than expected earnings). Basic resources stocks have been supported by earnings from Rio Tinto, China trade data and higher commodity prices (notably copper). Insurers are trading mostly higher, supported by earnings from Swiss Re and Aegon. The telecom sector has been supported by earnings from Deutsche Telekom.

- UK movers [Avocet Mining +25% (updated resource est), Aviva +7.5% (H1 profits rose y/y), Rio Tinto +1% (H1 results above ests); Schroders -5% (H1 results), Ladbrokes -3.5% (profits declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Commerzbank +12% (Q2 net profit above ests), Deutsche Telekom +4.5% (Q2 results above ests), Henkel +3% (Q2 profits above ests); Adidas -1% (cautious outlook)]
- Switzerland movers [Adecco +4% (Q2 profits above ests); Nestle -2% (cautious outlook)]
- Denmark movers [Novo Nordisk +2% (raised outlook)]
- Belgium movers [Delhaize +7% (raised outlook), KBC +4% (Q2 results above ests)]

- BOJ Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference noted that positive moves were spreading through domestic economy and could sustain recovery even if exports were not up sharply. He reiterated that it was premature to discuss an exit strategy
and that CAPEX and income were key to assess the economy. He added that risk posed by overseas economy had diminished over past month. The planned sales tax hike was consistent with efforts to end inflation. He noted that it was important to have a budget for next year that shows deficit reduction as any loosening of fiscal discipline might diminish the effect of monetary easing. He stressed that BoJ would take appropriate action if tail risk threatens the achievement of price target
- BOE's Carney reiterated that inflation was the primary target without question and recent forward guidance was intended to provide the maximum transparency to help secure recovery. He noted that it was unlikely MPC to change views outside the 'knockouts' but added it was not bided to decisions. The UK was early stages of recovery from very weak levels and he did not want to make 'Japanese-style' mistake on recovery. Lastly he stressed that needed to finish the job of repairing bank balance sheets and change in culture of UK banks
- ECB Publishes Monthly Report reiterated that recent economic data and confidence indicators had registered improvements from low levels and tentatively confirmed stabilization. ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) trimmed 2013 and 2014 CPI view and cut 2013 thru 2015 GDP outlook.
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Jun Private Sector Deposits +6% y/y; Non-Performing Loans (NPL): +22% y/y
- Czech Parliament to hold session next week to dissolve itself paving the way for an early election after the PM lost a confidence vote this week
- Philippine Central Bank Dep Gov Guinigundo commented that policy remained appropriate with CPI to remain in comfort zone through 2015
- Incoming India Central Bank (RBI) gov Rajan reiterated that the economic environment was challenging but confident India could overcome the situation

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The session was relatively quiet with not major data releases. FX price action was more reliant on technical factors rather than fundamental news.
- Some analysts noted that the current spat of sterling strength was not sustainable and was susceptible to negative data surprises. GBP/USD was hovering around the 1.55 area ahead of the NY morning.
- Dealers also noted that for now they remains tactically JPY bullish and noted that upward correction in equity markets might lift USDJPY back up to 97.30.
- AUD was currently holding on to a firmer tone amid much better than expected China trade data. The break of the AUDUSD 0.9010 level seemed to open potential to 0.9150-0.9300 area according to dealers

Political/In the Papers:
- (JP) Japan investors bought net 689.9B in Foreign Bonds last week (net buyers for 5th consecutive week; highest since Aug 2010) vs bought net 233.2B prior week;
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan Cabinet has approved medium-term fiscal plan
- (JP) Moody's: Higher growth necessary for Japan to reduce govt debt

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (GR)) Greek PM Samaras meets with US President Obama
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Jun Leading Indicators: No est v 100.6 prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.7% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July CPI EU Harmonised M/M: -0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 2nd: No est v $505.7B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.5%e v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 2.2% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Preliminary IGP-M Inflation: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:00 (CL) Chile July CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 335Ke v 326K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.95Me v 2.951M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July CPI M/M: 0.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 4.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Jun CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 82.2% prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Exports FOB: $4.8Be v $5.3B prior
- 19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%
- 21:30 (CN) China July CPI Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.7% prior; PPI Y/Y: -2.1%e v -2.7% prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy




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