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Friday August 9, 2013 - 09:59:13 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Relief from Chinese data continues but little reaction from Europe EU Market Update: Relief from Chinese data continues but little reaction from Europe
Fri, 09 Aug 2013 5:42 AM EST

- RBA lowered its near-term growth forecasts in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (as expected) ; cut 2013 GDP to 2.25% from 2.50%; AUD could weaken further
- Relief from China data continues as CPI comes in a touch lower (2.7% v 2.8%e) and Industrial Production beats (/Y: 9.7% v 8.9%e) **Note Trade components were impressive on Thurs)
- France Industrial data misses expectations (M/M: -1.4% v +0.3%e)
- UK Trade deficit improves as exports surge to record level of 26.9B

- Russia keeps key rates unchanged for the 11th straight time (as expected)
- NY morning focus on Canadian employment data (**Note: Recent data has been soft)

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 5th (RUB): 7.87T v 7.87T
- (JP) Japan July Consumer Confidence Index: 43.6 v 45.0e; second straight month of decline
- (CN) China July Industrial Production Y/Y: 9.7% v 8.9%e; IP YTD Y/Y: 9.4% v 9.2%e
- (CN) China July YTD Urban Fixed Assets: Y/Y: 20.1% v 20.0%e
- (CN) China July Retail Sales Y/Y: 13.3% v 13.5%e; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 12.8% v 12.8%e
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Aug 3rd (y/y): +4.4% v +13.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -5.7% v -3.8%e
- (SE) Sweden July Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.7%e
- (FR) France Jun YTD Budget Balance: -59.3B v -72.6B prior
- (FR) France Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v 1.5%e
- (FR) France Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.4% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v +0.3%e

- (CZ) Czech July CPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6%e
- (DK) Denmark Jun Current Account Balance (DKK): 13.3B v 12.3B prior; Trade Balance ex-shipping: 7.4B v 6.7B prior
- (DK) Denmark Jun Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v +0.6% prior
- (EU) ECB 16M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 36M prior; 70.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 68.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.4%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -0.6 v -2.5% prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 151.2K v 163.6K tons prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Total Trade Balance: 3.6B v 3.9B prior; Trade Balance EU: 1.1B v 890M prior
- (NO) Norway July CPI M/M: +0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway July CPI Underlying M/M: +0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.2%e
- (NO) Norway July PPI including Oil M/M: +2.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.7% prior
- (CN) China July New Yuan Loans (CNY): 699.9B v 665.0Be
- (CN) China July M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 14.5% v 13.9%e; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.7% v 9.1%e; M0 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.5% v 10.0%e

- (CN) China July Aggregate Financing (CNY): 808.8B v 925Be
- (UK) Jun Visible Trade Balance: -8.1B v -8.4Be; Trade Balance: -1.6B v -2.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: - 2.7B v -3.8Be
- (UK) Jun Construction Output SA M/M: -0.8% v -1.9%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v +0.2%e
- (RU) Russia Jun Trade Balance: $13.6B v $13.7Be; Exports: $41.6B v $41.5Be; Imports: $27.9B v $27.9e
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25% (as expected; 11th straight pause)
- (IT) Italy July Final CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (GR) Greece Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: +0.4% v -1.5%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen


FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,547,
DAX -0.10% at 8,312, CAC-40 -0.10% at 4,061, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,681, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 17,136, SMI +0.20% at 7,974, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,689

- Equity markets in Europe are trading mixed, amid the release of weaker than expected industrial production data out of France. Traders have also focused better than expected Chinese factory production data and M&A related to Dutch company KPN. In terms of specific sectors, banks are mixed, as Commerzbank continues its outperformance. The Chinese data and higher commodity prices have supported the energy and basic resources sectors. Additionally, airlines are broadly higher, as Germany's Lufthansa is due to release its monthly traffic figures later today.

- Germany movers [Rheinmetall +4.5% (reaffirmed outlook), Commerzbank +3% (follow-through buying), Wacker Chemie +3% (broker commentary) ; Kloeckner -2.5% (S&P cut credit outlook), Fraport -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [KPN +17% (bid approach); Fugro -7.5% (cautious outlook)]

- Greece Fin Min Stournaras commented that Greece received statement of support from US. President Obama backed view that growth must be prioritized.
He noted that no debt relief measure discussion until country achieved a primary surplus (expected by end of 2013). He noted that EU needed to tackle banking union and a unified debt market and fiscal policies would allow growth. He forecasted 2013 GDP contraction less than 5% with growth returning in 2014 (**Note Q1 GDP YoY reading was -5.6%). He reiterated that there was no fiscal gap for 2013 and 2014 and the gaps for 2015/16 period were still being calculated
- German Economic Ministry Aug Monthly Report reiterated the view that Q2 output (GDP) likely rose noticeably driven by private consumption and construction investment
- Italy PM Letta commented that the biggest risk to economic recovery would be failure of jobs to rebound
- Finland PM Katainen said to seek an increase in the country's retirement age by two years to 65. Finland needed more austerity measures in 2014 in order to stop debt growth
- Czech Central Bank Minutes: Majority of Board agreed there was increasing likelihood of launching FX intervention to further ease monetary conditions. Confirms that the Board did vote on whether to proceed with FX intervention (CZK currency sales) but decided against it. Appropriate to wait until CZK currency sales for greater downside CPI risks or risk deflation due to uncertain economic consequences of intervention. Some board members described FX interventions as possible destabilizing element for domestic economy
- Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Q2 results noted that its return on investment was 0.1%. It cut UK government debt holdings (Gilts) by 26% from prior quarter and also reduced government bond holdings for France and Australia. It raised Japanese government bond (JGB) holdings by 30%
- Russia Central Bank commented at its rate decision that the risk of an economic slowdown remained. It noted that it did not see inflation risks from demand in economy and that inflation would hit its target by end of 2013 and continue to slow further in 2014
- International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2014 by 100K bpd 1.11M bpd and maintained 2013 demand growth forecast at 0.9M bpd. It raised 2013 forecast for OPEC oil demand to 29.8M bps, +200K. Saudi Oil Production at 9.8M bps, 12-month high and strong growth in North America to help lift Non-OPEC Oil Supply by 1.4M bpd in second half of year

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Relief from China data continued but had minimal impact on risk appetite during the European morning. The USD was consolidating recent losses and little changed against the major pairs.
- Dealers were eyeing the Jun 19th high of 1.3419 as the next key resistance area in EUR/USD pair. The Euro might have some M&A support (dealers citing America Movil 7.2B bid for Dutch telecom KPN)
- Dealers noted that the AUD might have scope for much higher levels given the excessive short positioning in the market coupled with the recent better Chinese data

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy Fin Min Saccomanni: Have found nine possible adjustments to the property tax regime
- (IT) Italy Econ Min: May create new Govt organization to determine how to bring down levels of public sector waste
- (UK) BOE official notes that the vote at Aug 1 meeting to adopt forward guidance was a "one off" vote; will not vote on forward guidance at every MPC meeting - financial press
- (US) Fed's Fisher: Reiterates need to dial down on QE - CNBC; Reiterates he wants Fed to start QE taper in Sept, because its clear the US economy has recovered.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PE) Peru Jun Trade Balance: -$100Me v -$404M prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- (CO) Colombia Inflation Report
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Jun Trade Balance: No est v -600M prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment ; 2.5Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (AT) OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 2nd: No est v $280.2B prior
- 08:15 (CA) Canada July Housing Starts: 191Ke v 199.6K prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Net Change in Employment: +10.0Ke v -0.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.1% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v 32.4K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +32.2K prior; Participation Rate: 66.7%e v 66.7% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: 1.0%e v 2.2% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Final Trade Balance: No est v $855.0M prelim
- 10:00 (US) Jun Wholesale Inventories M/M: +0.4%e v -0.5% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.7%e v 1.6% prior




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