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Friday August 9, 2013 - 15:34:39 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Risk Off Following June Inventories US Market Update: Risk Off Following June Inventories
Fri, 09 Aug 2013 11:13 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (PT) Portugal Jun Trade Balance: -655M v -628M prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 2nd: $277.3B v $280.2B prior
- (RU) Russia Q2 Advance GDP Y/Y: 1.2% v 2.0%e
- (CA) Canada July Housing Starts: 192.9K v 190.0Ke
- (CA) Canada July Net Change in Employment: -39.4K v +10.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.1%e
- (MX) Mexico Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.4% v 0.1%e; Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -1.2% v +1.0%e
- (US) Jun Wholesale Inventories M/M: -0.2% v +0.4%e; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.7%e

- There is a strong whiff of risk aversion in the air this morning despite the better China data. US indices were briefly in the black after the open, but the second consecutive month of declines in wholesale inventories plus the S&P once again bouncing off of 1700 has driven stocks lower. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.67%, the S&P500 is down 0.27% and the Nasdaq is down 0.24%.

- The very strong July data out of China out over night is pushing commodities higher this morning, however the effect on overall sentiment seems muted. China Industrial production hit five-month highs and grew more than expected, while inflation was flat and PPI fell slightly. After rising steadily this week, copper gained another 1% this morning to hit two-month highs.

- Data indicates that the great rotation out of bonds is continuing. In the week ended August 7, investors redeemed $4.0B from Treasury bond funds, equal to 1.3% of assets under management, making for the worst week of outflows on record for the asset class. In a note to investors, a BoA/Merrill analyst noted that in the same week, $10B flowed into developed market equities.

- The euro has once again bounced off of resistance around 1.3400, after touching the level yesterday. EUR/USD was a little choppy overnight while it has moved decidedly to the downside in the US session in the risk-off environment, dropping to around 1.3350.

- Carlos Slim's America Movil offered to acquire the rest of Dutch telecom Royal KPN it does not already own for 2.4/share, a 20% premium. The offer values the entire company at about 10.25B. AMX currently owns 29.77% of the company.

- JC Penny gained approximately 10% during yesterday's session after reports that Bill Ackman was pushing the company's board to speed up the search for a new chief to replace interim CEO Ullman within a month or so. Ackman said CEO Questrom would return as chairman under the right conditions. Later the board shot back that it disagreed with his position and this morning, and Ackman has responded by demanding a board meeting ASAP. JCP is now down 3.8% or so.

- Nvidia widely beat earnings expectations on in-line revenue results in its Q2, however its Q3 revenue and margin forecast was weak, disappointing investors. The company warned that its core Tegra business would be down y/y as it focuses on upcoming versions of the chip. NVDA is back to unchanged after premarket declines.

- Among other movers this morning, shares of DeVry are down 6% after the firm reported another big slide in new and total enrollments. Rare-earth name Molycorp is down 10% after widely missing targets.

***Looking Ahead***
- (PE) Peru Jun Trade Balance: -$100Me v -$404M prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- (CO) Colombia Inflation Report



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