Tuesday August 13, 2013 - 03:29:36 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 13-Aug-2013 -0327 GMT
The Dow (15419.68, -0.04%) has dipped targeting 15250 in the near term as the US 10-Yr (2.63%) has risen a bit. The US Retail Sales data today will be keenly watched.
Nikkei (13701.33, +1.35%) has bounced sharply from the long term support at 13600. While the support holds it may move towards 14400. But, the Shanghai (2098.49, -0.13%) has dipped a bit today, after the sharp rise to 2101 yesterday. Still, there can be hopes of 2150 if it manages to remain above 2075-50.
Nifty (5612.40) rose yesterday but needs to rise past 5650 to avoid any danger of a fresh fall. The super crucial Support at 5500 could be vulnerable in case of a failure to rise past 5650. State Bank's disappointing results and the poor June IIP suggest chances of some more pain before a proper recovery.
Gold (1333) has been rising over the last month on increasing consumer demand in China. It now needs to rise past immediate Resistance at 1350 to move up to stronger Resistance at 1375. Silver (21.2050) has recently broken the downtrend since 32 (Feb) but has crucial Resistance coming up at 22 now. Failure to break above 22 could push it down to 20 again.
Brent (108.01) has dipped a bit, but is in a near term up trend. We may see a rise towards 110 this week.
Copper(3.3060) is consolidating after its strong rise last week. There are now chances of seeing a further rise towards 3.35-3.40 in the coming days/ weeks, which should be good news for the world.
The Euro (1.3306) trades lower than yesterday, but has a crucial Support coming up at 1.3270 and 1.3250 today. The EU Industrial Production data today and GDP data tomorrow could keep the Euro supported in the near term, as the market is hoping that the data may show signs of recovery.
The Pound (1.5460) trades slightly lower compared to yesterday. UK CPI data is expected to come in at 2.8% today. We may see 1.54 (and lower) while Resistance at 1.5550 holds. Dollar-Yen (97.19) has risen past 97.00 as suggested yesterday. It can try and move higher towards 98.00 if it is able to sustain above 96.70. A rise looks possible given the strong bounce in the Nikkei.
The Aussie (0.9128) fell sharply yesterday after Friday's strong rise. We've just not been hitting it correctly on the Aussie for the past few days. Maybe we see a range of 0.9050-9250 for a few days while the market decides where it wants to go.
Chidambaram has vowed to contain India's CAD at $70 bln in 2013-14, lower than the leves of 2012-13 and 2011-12. Import restrictions are expected to be announced today. We have to see how the market reacts to that. The R-currencies look like they can weaken a bit. On the chartsm, given the overall Dollar strength globally, there could be chances that Dollar-Rupee (61.28) could test important Resistance at 61.50 today. That needs to hold to prevent further Rupee weakness towards 61.75 and 62.35.
US Yields could gain an advantage over German and British yields, but lose against Japanese yields.
The UK-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.17%) can find Resistance near current levels after having risen from -0.3%. This could cap the recent rise in the Pound. The German-US 2-Yr (-0.15%) is beginning to dip from Resistance, as suggested yesterday. The US-Japan 10-Yr (1.89%) itself is trading at a crucial long-term Resistance and could come off from there. This suggests that the Japanese 10-Yr (0.74%) could move higher from current levels.
The US 10-Yr (2.63%) is itself consolidating sideways, but could be gearing up for a rise towards 3.0% before the next FOMC on 18-Sep. At the very least, a test of 2.70% is possible in the near term.
The Indo-US 10-Yr (5.75%) has started rising again. It probably needs to move up to 6.25% to mark a turning point for Dollar-Rupee.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK CPI Y/Y
...Expected 2.80 % ...Previous 2.90 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous -1.28 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Retail Sales
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.57 %
...Actual 0.6% ...Previous 1.0 %
...Actual -2.20 % ...Previous -2.80 %
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