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Tuesday August 13, 2013 - 10:17:24 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German ZEW Investor Sentiment rises more than forecast amid growth signs

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German ZEW Investor Sentiment rises more than forecast amid growth signs
Tue, 13 Aug 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Australia July Business Confidence at 7-month low (-3 vs. 0e)
- Japan PM Abe calls for study on lowering corporate tax rates to partially offset any economic drag occasioned by a planned sales tax hike; Nikkei +2.6%
- UK economic activity is improving rapidly with RICS house price balance surging to seven year highs
- Flurry of UK inflation data comes in within expectations; little market reaction; PPI Input does rise at its fastest annual rate since March 2012
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment beats analysts' expectations (42.0 vs. 39.9e) amid signs that worst of recession is over
- ZEW economists see ECB raising interest rates sooner as EMU crisis enters calm


***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany July Final CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (DE) Germany July Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary July CPI M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e
- (ES) Spain July CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (NL) Netherlands Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: -3.7% v -0.4% prior
- (SE) Sweden July CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0%e; CPI Level: 313.55 v 313.15e
- (UK) July PPI Input M/M: 1.1% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.5%e; fastest annual rate since March 2012
- (UK) July PPI Output M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (UK) July PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.2%e
- (UK) July CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e
- (UK) July RPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.2%e; RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.1%e ; Retail Price Index: 249.7 v 249.6e
- (UK) Jun ONS House Price Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.5%e highest level since April 2008
- (EU) Euro Zone July Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (DE) Germany Aug ZEW Economic Sentiment: 42.0 v 39.9e; Current Situation: 18.3 v 12.0e

Fixed Income:
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 13-week bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.87x v 1.70x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 97.6B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 107Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3- month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.96% v 3.98% prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 2.31B vs. 2.2-2.6B indicated range in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 820M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.034% v +0.033% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.29x v 3.76x prior
- Sold 1.41B vs. 1.6B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.186% v 0.152% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.53x v 2.10x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: [EuroStoxx50 +0.70%,
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,608, DAX +0.80% at 8423, CAC-40 +0.40% at 4,085, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 17,353, SMI +0.40% at 8,030, S&P 500 +0.30% at 1,692. Overall, the DAX has outperformed on gains in E.ON and RWE]

- Focal Points for Markets: Nikkei +2.6%, Germany ZEW, Rise in core government bond yields, E.ON earnings, US July retail sales

By Sector:
- Basic Resources [Fresnillo FRES.UK +3.5% (broker commentary, higher precious metals prices), Aurubis NDA.DE +0.90% (higher copper prices); ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -1.4% (ahead of quarterly earnings); Stoxx Basic Materials index +1.5%]
- Energy [OMV OMV.AT +1% (Q2 profits above ests); Stoxx Energy index +0.60%]
- Utilities [E.ON EOAN.DE +3.5% (Q2 results above ests, reaffirmed outlook); Eurostoxx utilities index +2%]
- Financials [Gam Holdings GAM.CH +7% (H1 profits rose y/y), Resolution RSL.UK +4% (swung to H1 net profit), Deutsche Wohnen DWNI.DE +2.5% (raised forecast); SocGen GLE.FR -1% (share placement); Stoxx Financials Index +0.50%]
- Materials [K+S SDF.DE -2.5% (Q2 results below ests)]
- Industrials [Heidelberger Druck HDD.DE +6.5% (narrowed quarterly loss), Leoni LEO.DE +4% (quarterly sales above ests); Geberit GEBN.CH -5% (cautious outlook), Tornos TOHN.CH -3.5% (Q2 sales declined y/y); Stoxx Industrials Index +0.10%]
- Telecom [ProsiebenSat PSM.DE -1% ( broker commentary); Stoxx Telecom Index +0.50%]
- Consumer Discretionary [Michael Page MPI.UK -4% (H1 profits declined y/y)]

Speakers:
- ZEW Economists: First signs of end of recession in key EMU countries have contributed to better ZEW reading

- Dutch govt might decide on over 8.0B in spending cuts to free up funds to invest into economy which is 2.0B more than EU target
- Moody's: Czech political uncertainty likely to hinder its economic recovery but not affect its stable sovereign outlook
- Iraq oil official: Bomb halts crude oil flows through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The USD began the session slightly firmer against the European pairs but better German ZEW Survey ebbed away at its gains. The ZEW noted that ECB would have more room for an earlier increase in interest rates due to the calming of the crisis. The EUR/USD pair held above the 1.33 level heading into the NY morning.
- USD/JPY was higher building upon the gains in the Nikkei225 Index. Reports that PM Abe was considering lowering corporate taxes as a counterweight to the sales tax hike push the pair to test towards the 98 handle
- Peripheral spread for several countries were at their tightest levels in two years amid growth signs. The 10-year Italy/German Gov't bond spread at approx 243bps, tightest level since July 2011 while the 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread at approx 270bps; tightest since Aug 2011.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Germany budget draft forecasts 2014 debt plan at approx 216B v 240B y/y - press
- (ES) Spain Treasury chief de Mesa: To reduce pace of debt sales by 30% from Sept - financial press
- (US) San Francisco Fed research: QE providing moderate help to US Growth; forward guidance on rates has greater economic impact than signals about QE quantity

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IL) Israel July Trade Balance: No est v -$1.2b prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (IN) Incoming India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Rajan
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 192.5B
- 07:30 (US) July NFIB Small Business Optimism: 94.5e v 93.5 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:30 (US) July Import Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) July Advance Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: +0.4%e v -0.1% prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus speech
- 10:00 (US) Jun Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (UK) DMO announce size of new2019 Gilt for Aug 20th auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.00-1.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $45B in 4-week Bills
- 12:45 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on Economy in Atlanta
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel in interview With German Public Broadcasters
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018. 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: market is split between no change or a 25 bp cut
- (MX) Mexico July ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y//Y: No est v 1.6% prior

 

 

 

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