Wednesday August 14, 2013 - 03:39:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 14-Aug-2013 -0327 GMT
The Dow (15451.01, +0.20%) has risen even though the US 10-Yr rose to 2.72%. Chances of a dip towards 15200 can only be negated if it sees a rise past 15600.
Nikkei (13836.65, -0.22%) has dipped slightly, but remains above 13600. While so, we may see a rise towards Resistance at 14400 . Shanghai (2109.05, +0.14%) has risen well. It may move towards 2150 while above 2075.
Nifty (5699.30) managed to break above 5650 yesterday. The danger of a fall towards 5500 has reduced but a rise above 5750 will be better for repairing the weak confidence in the market.
Gold (1322.10) is mixed now. It needs to rise past the immediate resistance at 1350 to avoid a fall to 1300. Silver (21.4150) is at crucial level now and needs to rise past 22 to avoid a fall to 20.
Brent (109.40) has risen nearing our earlier target of 110. A strong resistance is coming up near 111. If it holds may push Brent down towards 108 again.
Copper (3.3085) has dipped a bit but is consolidating for now. This is encouraging. We may still see a rise towards 3.35 while it remains above 3.30.
Eurozone IIP came in strong yesterday and there are hopes of recovery there. This is a big development. But, the outlook on the Euro (1.3263) is not clear. It is hemmed in between 1.3250-35 and 1.3285-3300. May be bearish overall.
The Pound (1.5443) is coming down gradually and could dip to 1.5350 while below 1.5500. UK Unemployment data (expected 7.8%) is due today. It will be a booster to global sentiment if the Unemployment drops.
Dollar-Yen (98.15) has indeed risen as suggested yesterday. Crucial Resistance coming up at 98.50 now. Break thereof, if seen, could lead the market up towards 99.50. The upward break in the US-Japan Yield Spread (see interest rate section below) alongwith a bullish Nikkei could pull Dollar-Yen higher.
The Aussie (0.9097) has been coming off for the last few days, but could find some Support at 0.9075 today. It could bounce back towards 0.9125+ if the Support holds.
The R-currencies have weakened overnight. Dollar-Rupee (61.1950) too could move higher today as the US 10-Yr has gone up.
The US 10-Yr (2.70%) saw a strong rise yesterday and could be gearing up for a further rise towards 2.80% and higher, if it manages to rise past super-crucial Resistance at 2.75%.
The US-Japan 10-Yr (1.96%) has broken above the resistance mentioned yesterday instead of falling. This is a big development.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.42%) has moved up further and could move up towards 8.60% as the RBI keeps money tight.
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN WPI
...Previous - 4.86 %
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.80 % ...Previous 7.80 %
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected 0.10 % ...Previous -0.30 %
UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 2.80 % ...Previous 2.90 %
EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous -1.18 %
US Retail Sales
...Actual 0.15 % ...Previous 0.76 %
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