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Wednesday August 14, 2013 - 10:42:43 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone moves out of recession; BOE minutes shows dissent on forward guidence

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone moves out of recession; BOE minutes shows dissent on forward guidence
Wed, 14 Aug 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- India inflation picks up due toi effects from weaker rupee currency
- Upside surprises in France, Germany and Portugal GDP, FX unimpressed while bond yields continue to climb
- Euro Zone official moves out of recession in Q2
- BOE Minutes shows a dissent on forward guidance vote; Jobless Claims change data better than expected for it 9th straight decline
- German 10-year Bund auction results 'soggy' with yield at 18-month high and soft bid-to-cover

***Economic Data***
- (FR) France Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.3% v -0.1%e
- (DE) Germany Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.2%e

- (IN) India July Wholesale Prices (WPI) Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.0%e; first rise above 5% in four months
- (FR) France July CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e; CPI Ex-Tobacco Index: 125.35 v 125.38e
- (HU) Hungary Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y:-1.2% v -1.4%e
- (CH) Swiss July Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (NL) Netherlands Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.0%e
- (SE) Sweden Jun Industrial Production M/M: 3.0% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v -6.4%e
- (PL) Poland Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to maintain Asset Purchase Target at 375B; (second straight unanimous vote under Gov Carney)
- (UK) BOE Minutes: Voted 8 to 1 on forward guidance; member Weale dissented
- (UK) July Jobless Claims Change: -29.2K v -15.0Ke (9th straight decline); Claimant Count Rate: 4.3% v 4.4%e

- (UK) Jun Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e; Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3M/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (UK) Jun ILO Unemployment Rate 3M/3M: 7.8% v 7.8%; Employment Change 3M/3M: +69K v +34Ke
- (PT) Portugal Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: +1.1% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -2.9%e
- (CH) Swiss Aug Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 7.2 v 4.8 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q2 Advance GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.8%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $131M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.60% vs. $27M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.8907% v 0.9404% prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.231B in 1.5% 2023 bunds; Avg Yield: 1.80% (highest since Feb 2012) v 1.57% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 1.58x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 -0.20% at 6,598, DAX +0.20% at 8,429, CAC-40 +0.20% at 4,101, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 8,728, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 17,317, SMI +0.50% at 8,075, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,687]

Market Focal Points: France, Germany, Portugal Q2 GDP better than expected; Hawkish BoE minutes; FTSE 100 ex-dividends; UK jobs data

By Sector
- Basic Resource
s [ThyssenKrupp-3% TKA.DE (capital raise concerns), ENRC ENRC.UK -3% (H1 profits declined), Rio Tinto RIO.UK -2.5% (ex-dividend), Anglo American AAL.UK -2% (ex-dividend), Ferrexpo FXPO.UK -2% (ex-dividend); New World Resources NWR.UK +15% (8-week high), Salzgitter SZG.DE +1.5% (confirmed outlook), Glencore GLEN.UK +0.30% (H1 production update); Stoxx Basic Resources index +0.50%]
- Energy [Solar World SWV.DE -8% (H1 results), Repsol REP.ES -1.5% (broker commentary), Shell RDSA.UK -0.80% (ex-dividend); Stoxx Energy index -0.30%]
- Healthcare [Glaxo GSK.UK +0.50% (broker commentary); Celesio CLS1.DE -1.5% (cut outlook), William Demant WDH.DK -1.5% (H1 results below ests), Astrazeneca AZN.UK -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Financials [Swiss Life SLHN.CH +3% (H1 profits above ests); Deutsche bank DBK.DE -1% (broker commentary), Standard Chartered STAN.UK -1% (ex-dividend); Stoxx Financial index +0.10%]
- Industrials [Subsea7 SUBC.NO +8% (Q2 results above ests); Balfour Beatty BBY.UK -3.5% (H1 profits declined y/y), Hochtief HOT.DE -1.5% (cautious outlook); Stoxx Industrial index +0.30%]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -5% (H1 net profit below ests); Stoxx Utilities index -2%]
- Consumer Discretionary [Rentokil RTO.UK +8.5% (Q2 profits rose y/y), GFk GFK.DE +3% (Q2 profits rose y/y), Heineken HEIA.NL +0.50% (broker commentary); Diageo DGE.UK -1.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Telecom [United Internet UTDI.DE +6% (H1 profits rose y/y); Portugal Telecom PTC.PT -4% (Q2 results below ests), KPN KPN.NL -3% (shareholder concerns related to AMX's proposal); Stoxx telecom index -0.4%]

Speakers:
- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee Minutes took three votes (interest rates, Asset Purchases and forward guidance). Voted 8 to 1 on Forward guidance with Weale dissenting.
BOE did not rule out more QE; Split on cost of more QE in return to normal policy. Further QE not appropriate at current time.
- BOE member Weale: Supportive of forward guidance, not time horizon; wanted shorter first inflation knockout time horizon; Saw particularly compelling need to manage risk that guidance pushes up medium-term inflation expectations.
- (EU) EU's Rehn: There is evidence the economy is gaining momentum; recovery is within reach
- SNB's Zurbruegg commented that the worst has been avoided with the Swiss Franc cap but reiterated that the CHF currency remained high. He was not concerned about inflation. Reaffirmed 2013 GDP growth forecast between 1.0-1.5% and inflation outlook at -0.3%
- Germany's BDI Industrial Assoc cut its 2013 GDP forecast to +0.5% from +0.8% noting that it would be difficult to meet export growth of 3.5% this year
- Former PBoC advisor Fan Gang: China can grow at or above the official 7.5% level

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- BOE Minutes and UK data raise further question marks over the validity of the BoE's formal guidance. The GBP/USD probed above the 1.55 level in session after the release of key UK data. Dealers noted that UK Short Sterling futures was currently forecast UK interest rates to begin rising in Q3 2014 compared to BOE's guidance of Q1 2016.
- The better-than-expected European GDP data did little to move the Euro currency. The pair was at 1.3265 just ahead of the NY morning. Front-month German Bund futures recovered most of their earlier losses and were little changed on the day ahead of the NY morning. 10-year Bund yield is up 0.5bps at 1.81%, the Italian and Spanish yields were a few bps lower.
- EUR/CHF cross move above 1.2410 for the first time in over a month

Political/In the Papers:
- (IT) Italy Treasury said to intend to maintain its 2013 debt issuance plans even in light of satisfying approx 80% of its borrowing needs for the year - financial press
- (IT) Italy President Napolitano: The court verdict in the Berlusconi case must be applied, including jail sentence; a govt crisis would be fatal; Have not received any request for a pardon for Berlusconi.
-(ES) Former Popular Party (PP) secretary generals Francisco lvarez-Cascos and Javier Arenas admitted to the Spain Constitution Court that they lacked control over political donations and state subsidies during their terms - EL Pais
- (ES) Catalonia's largest separatist party has expressed support for Gibraltar - FT
- (US) A minority of economists believe that US fiscal disagreements could slow the pace of Fed tapering - FT
- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC non-voter): Any change in QE should be a cautious first step, must still be data dependent
-Apple [AAPL]: Carl Icahn: We currently have a large position in Apple, we believe the company to be extremely undervalued - twitter

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (PL) Portugal Q2 YTD Labour Costs: No est v -0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Jun Trade Balance: No est v 3.1B prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB20B in 2018 and 2019 OFZ bonds
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 9th: No est v +0.2% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Jun Retail Sales Constant M/M: -0.2%e v +2.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 6.2% prior
- 08:00 (AR) Argentine Econ Min talks at Exporters Meeting
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 4.5% prior; Retail Sales Broad Y/Y: -1.3%e v +4.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July M3 Money Supply M/M: No est v 0.6% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July CPI M/M: -0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.5%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) July PPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) July PPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.7% prior

- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 09:00 (CA) July Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior; House Price Index: No est v 157.0 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Seligenstadt
- 11:00 (US) NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flow
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10 Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Ludwigshafen
-15:15 (US) Fed's Bullard on monetary policy in KY

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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Tue 21 Nov
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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