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Thursday August 15, 2013 - 10:20:23 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK continues string of better economic data as retail sales beats expecteations EU Market Update: UK continues string of better economic data as retail sales beats expecteations
Thu, 15 Aug 2013 5:46 AM EST

- UK July Retail Sales handily beats expectations with highest annual reading since Jan 2011
- Assumption Day holiday has Europe on the sidelines with participation thin (France and Italy closed)
- Japanese Cabinet Aug monthly report kept its assessment unchanged that domestic economy was steadily picking up and it showed some movement towards a self-sustainable recovery (1st pause in 4 months)
- Japanese officials (Suga, Aso and Amari) play down talk of a potential corp tax cut; Nikkei ends day -2.1%
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Has not made a decision about supporting September taper
- Paulson & Co discloses quarterly holdings which showed his gold ETF position cut in half to 10.2M shares

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected

- (SG) Singapore Jun Retail Sales M/M: -6.9% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: -4.0% v +1.5%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.3%e
- (CZ) Czech July PPI Industrial M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e
- (NO) Norway July Trade Balance (NOK): 35.3B v 32.0B prior
- (UK) July Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 1.1% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.7%e
- (UK) July Retail Sales incl Auto M/M: 1.1% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.4%e; highest annual reading since Jan 2011

Fixed Income:
- (UK) DMO sold 2.25B in 4.5% 2034 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.520% v 2.786% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.48x v 1.98x prior; Tail 0.7bps v 0.3bps prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 4.01% v 4.02% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.83x prior


Indices: [EuroStoxx50 -0.40%,
FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,556, DAX -0.50% at 8,398, CAC-40 -0.30% at 4,103, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 8,772, FTSE MIB closed, SMI -0.80% at 8,015, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,679]

Market Focal Points: UK retail sales, Japan play down corporate tax cut speculation (Nikkei -2.1%0, Cisco's cautious outlook, Swiss earnings (Holcim, Zurich), Upcoming US data (weekly jobless claims, July CPI, Aug Empire and Philly Fed surveys, additional comments from Fed's Bullard), Wal-Mart earnings, Higher oil prices

By Sector
- Basic Resources
[Antofagasta ANTO.UK-1.5% (broker commentary), ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -1.4% (broker commentary) ArcelorMittal MT.NL -1% (broker commentary); Talvivaara Mining TALV.UK +6% (Q2 profits rose y/y); Overall resource related firms are mostly lower amid the decline in copper prices; EuroStoxx Basic Resources index -0.30%]
- Materials [SIG Plc SIG.UK -3% (H1 profits declined y/y); Holcim HOLN.CH +2% (H1 European results improved)]
- Energy [Ophir Energy OPHR.UK -8% (Reported H1 loss), PV Crystalox Solar PVCS.Uk -2% (Q2 sales declined y/y); Torm TORM.DK +8% (Q2 EBITDA above ests), Nordex NDX1.DE +12% (raised FY forecast)]
- Industrials [Aalberts AALB.NL -3.5% (H1 profits declined y/y); GEA Group G1A.DE +1.5% (broker commentary); EuroStoxx Industrials index -0.10%]
- Financials [Zurich Insurance ZURN.CH -3% (Q2 results below ests); EuroStoxx Financials index -0.20%]
- Consumer Discretionary [H&M HMB.SE -1% (July SSS below ests); Joyou JY8.DE +11% (H1 sales rose y/y), Imperial Tobacco IMT.UK +3% (reaffirmed forecast)]
- Technology [Infineon IFX.DE -1%, Alcatel Lucent ALU.FR -1.5%; Most of the European tech names are lower following Cisco's cautious outlook; EuroStoxx Technology index -0.80%]
- Airlines [Air Berlin AB1.DE -3% (capital raise concerns), Easyjet EZJ.UK -3%, Lufthansa -1.5%, Ryanair RYA.UK -1.5%, Air France AF.FR -1.5%; Airlines are broadly lower following the release of quarterly results from Air Berlin and amid the rise in oil prices.]
- Healthcare [Almirall ALM.ES -14% (delayed NDA filing), Astrazeneca AZN.UK -2% (broker commentary), GSK GSK.UK -1% (broker commentary)]
- Utilities [RWE RWE.DE -2.5% (follow-through selling); EuroStoxx Utilities index -1%]

- German DIHK Chamber of Commerce: Guides 2013 export growth +2% and at +4% in 2014 **Note: previously saw export growth of 6%)

- World Gold Council (WGC): Q2 Global gold demand at 856.3 tons, -12% y/y to a 4-year low on heavy liquidation from gold-backed ETFs; Lower gold price will fuel Indian and Chinese demand growth
- Japan Econ Min Amari noted that various indicators showed economy picking up but that Capex was lagging the recovery. He reiterated the view that priority was for tax cuts for Capex and R&D rather than a corporate tax cut
- China may release urbanization plan and long term mechanism for stable and healthy property market in about 3-months. China would improve property control policies and adopt tax and credit tools to regulate the property market

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Assumption day holiday sidelined a vast majority of European participants
with dealers looking ahead to very heavy US data calendar to provide a better picture on the Fed outlook ahead of September
- The string of better UK economic data continued. The GBP/USD hovered at 2-month highs above 1.5580 level after better-than-expected retail sales data
- The JPY was slightly firmer during a quiet European session. Dealers noted that comments from Japanese officials weighed on Asian markets
- USD/CNY: CNY was at fresh 19-year high as the pair traded at 6.1140

Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Has not made a decision about supporting September taper; Fed should not go on "autopilot" with taper, maintain policy flexibility; Fed may start to taper with a small amount of assets; Risk that a premature taper could give rise to concerns over deflation.
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Lowering the corporate tax rate would have minimal effect - financial press; Japan PM Abe did not request consideration of corporate tax cut.
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: It is not correct to say that PM Abe has given instructions to lower corporate tax rate
- (JP) Japan investors bought net 1.61T in Foreign Bonds last week (3-year high; net buyers for 6th consecutive week) vs bought net 690B prior week

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: +1.2%e v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.7%e v 2.3% prior
- (PE) Peru Jun Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 5.1%e v 5.0% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 9th: No est v $507.9B prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:15 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on US economy in KY
- 08:30 (US) Aug Empire Manufacturing: 10.00e v 9.46 prior
- 08:30 (US) July CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) July CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior

- 08:30 (US) July CPI Index NSA: 233.729e v 233.504 prior; CPI Core Index SA: No est v 233.643 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 335Ke v 333K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.00Me v 3.02M prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (US) Jun Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $56.4B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: -$17.5Be v -$27.2B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada July Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 3.3% prior
- 09:15 (US) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Capacity Utilization: 77.9%e v 77.8% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug NAHB Housing Market Index: 57.0e v 57.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 15.0e v 19.8 prior

- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Lbeck
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 5-year TIPS announcement
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.0-4.0B in Notes
- 11:30 (IL) Israel July CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.0% prior
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Bremen
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.4% prior




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Mon 15 Oct 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
Tue 16 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Wed 17 Oct 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 09:00 EZ- Final HICP
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A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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Thu 18 Oct 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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