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Thursday August 15, 2013 - 15:50:37 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Taper Jitters Drive Risk Appetite Away US Market Update: Taper Jitters Drive Risk Appetite Away
Thu, 15 Aug 2013 11:18 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 9th: $507.8B v $507.9B prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (BR) Brazil Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: 1.1% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e
- (RU) Russia July Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.2%e
- (US) Aug Empire Manufacturing: 8.24 v 10.00e
- (US) July CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (US) July CPI Ex Food and Energy M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (US) July CPI Index NSA: 233.596 v 233.729e; CPI Core Index SA: 234.004 v 233.643 prior
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 320K v 335Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.969M v 3.00Me
- (US) Jun Total Net TIC Flows: -$19.0B v +$56.4B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: -$66.9B v -$17.5Be
- (CA) Canada July Existing Home Sales M/M: 0.2% v 3.3% prior
- (US) July Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.3%e; Capacity Utilization: 77.6% v 77.9%e; Manufacturing Production: -0.1% v +0.2%e
- (US) Aug NAHB Housing Market Index: 59.0 v 57.0e
- (US) Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook: 9.3 v 15.0e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +65 bcf v +68-73 bcf expected range

- Futures were pointing south all morning in the pre-market, but things got really ugly after 08:30ET when the weekly claims and CPI data dropped. US indices opened deep in the red and are not far off their worst levels as of writing, with the DJIA down 1.32%, the S&P500 down 1.43% and the Nasdaq down 1.58%.

- The jobless claims numbers from last week extended the declines seen in the series, with initial claims now around six-year lows. Meanwhile, the July US CPI data out this morning was right in line with expectations, up 2.0% on an annualized basis. The regional August Empire Manufacturing data missed expectations, but analysts point out that the employment component was quite strong. The combination of the better jobs and inflation data are another reminder that Fed tapering will likely begin in September. Note that Fed dove Bullard spoke yesterday and this morning, warning that "inflation has not appeared so far" despite risks of future inflation, and that he has not made a decision yet about supporting a possible September taper.

- The yield on the 10-year UST has spiked higher this morning, almost hitting 2.80%, for its highest levels since July 2011. The German 10-year bund yield rose above 1.90% for the first time since March 2012. Meanwhile the VIX volatility index has jumped more than 12% this morning, rising above 14.60, for its highest levels since Bernanke's June 19th speech.

- The August NAHB housing market sentiment index showed that confidence among homebuilders is at its highest level in nearly eight years. Homebuilders seem confident that demand will drive sales growth into next year despite rising mortgage rates. Note that the August CoreLogic marketpulse report indicated that the recent increase in long-term mortgage rates has cut the share of outstanding mortgages with above-market rates by 25 percentage points.

- Front-month WTI crude spiked higher this morning to just shy of $108 as turmoil in both Egypt and Libya continues. This is about one dollar below the highs seen earlier in August and mid July. Brent crude pushed out to a four-month high above $111.

- Among individual equities, Walmart is dragging down the other retail names with a pretty terrible Q2 report. Revenues missed expectations and the firm offered weak Q3 guidance and also cut its FY forecast. Comps were flat and executives said sales were negatively impacted by the challenging retail environment and lower consumer spending due to the payroll tax increase. Kohls also offered weak Q3 guidance and cut its FY forecast. Shares of WMT are down 2%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (IL) Israel July CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.0% prior
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Bremen
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July CPI M/M: 0.9%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 10.5%e v 10.5% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.4% prior




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