Tuesday July 26, 2005 - 22:15:37 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: NZD/USD losses checked ahead of OCR review
With all eyes now turning towards Thursday's OCR review, the NZD again traded within narrow confines during the local session on Tuesday. Although generally positive USD sentiment pervaded the market, the pullback in NZD/USD was limited to 0.6833 and this boosted the NZD crosses. While the currency softened further during the overnight session, the market failed to press lower through 0.6800, rebounding from 0.6804 lows. A widely anticipated rebound in the NBNZ Business Confidence Index, from -48.8 in June to -43.2 in July, released early this morning, has had little market impact and the currency opens today at 0.6820.
Australian Dollar: AUD below 0.7600 ahead of CPI data
The AUD also remained confined to narrow ranges during the domestic session yesterday. The market shrugged off a largely anecdotal NAB Business Conditions Index reading of 14 for the second quarter and was pressured to lows of 0.7598 against the USD. With the USD strengthening across the board, AUD/USD was again marked lower during the offshore session, giving up 0.7600 to establish overnight lows of 0.7570. With the Q2 CPI due for release today, the currency has improved from overnight lows to open this morning at 0.7580.
Major Currencies: USD strengthens as China dismisses further yuan revaluation=
The USD posted gains against major currencies during Tuesday's offshore session after China's central bank played down talk of further changes to the value of the yuan anytime soon. The Chinese central bank said overnight that media reports calling the long-awaited currency revaluation an "initial adjustment" were incorrect. The USD was bought against the yen following China's statement, despite surprisingly weak US consumer confidence, which fell 3pts in July. The USD/JPY
was pushed through 112.00 resistance to a one-week 112.63 high and opens this morning at around 112.50. The euro was also under pressure, taken through 1.2000 support to a 1.1981 session low, the euro opens stronger this morning above 1.2000.
US consumer confidence slips 3 pts to 103.2 in July.
Given that the index was at 103.0 in March and indeed 102.7 in Dec last year, that leaves a pretty much flat trend for the year so far, with the ebbs and flows probably related to fluctuating gasoline prices (up in July), media coverage of the ups and downs in the labour market, and maybe developments in the war against terror.
US Richmond Fed survey was mixed in July,
with the manufacturing component stuck in the mid-year trough, but the regional services and retail measures surging strongly.
German Ifo business survey up 1.7 pts to 95.0 in July,
its highest reading since Feb, adding to the recent slew of less weak European survey data. We suspect the biggest single driver of the jump was the prospect of a change in government, with recent developments meaning that elections will be held a year early on Sep 18. The weaker euro will also have helped. Other data included a further up-tick in German inflation to 1.9% yr in July.
Confederation of British Industry survey up from -5 to +6 in July.
This survey showed a decent rebound in July, to its highest output reading since March. Orders posted a similar improvement, despite marginal slippage in the export component. These gains may reflect price cuts, with the prices measures falling away sharply. The separate quarterly survey did not match the improved picture in July, slipping slightly relative to April. Still, the result suggests that next week's manufacturing PMI might build upon June's rise. If so, expectations about stronger Q3 GDP growth will build, perhaps keeping those hawks on the BoE's monetary policy committee resistant to the now widespread belief that rates will be cut in August.
Country Release Last Forecast
27 Jul NZ Jun Merch Trade Bal NZDmn -25 -195
Aust Q2 Consumer Price Index %qtr 0.7% 0.7%
US Jun Durable Goods Orders 5.5% 2.5%
Jun New Home Sales 2.1% 1.0%
Fed Beige Book
Eur Q1 Current Account Rev EURbn 4.5a n/f
UK Jun BBA Mortgage Data
28 Jul NZ RBNZ OCR Review 6.75% 6.75%
Jun Dwelling Consents 11.4% 10.0%
Latest Research papers/Publication
A question of capacity (25 July)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (25 July)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (25 July)
RBNZ July OCR Preview (22 July)
Migration and the RBNZ (21 July)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (18 July)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (18 July)
NZ Q2 CPI Review (14 July)
NZD: What really drives the currency? (14 July)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Banks website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
(Previous days closing rates)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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