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Friday August 16, 2013 - 10:10:54 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe endures a quiet session after Thursday's whipsaw

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe endures a quiet session after Thursday's whipsaw
Fri, 16 Aug 2013 5:36 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood calls for large marches today in "millions march of anger"
-UN Security Council calls for an end to violence in Egypt and for all to show maximum restraint
-New Zealand encounters another earthquake, this one with magnitude of 6.8 near Wellington
- Fat-finger trade on Shanghai Composite sends exchange spiking up 5.6% briefing; closes lower by 0.6% for its third straight session of losses

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Aug 10th (y/y): +7.1% v +4.4% prior
- (EU) ECB Jun Current Account Seasonally Adj: 16.9B v 19.5B prior; Current Account NSA: 26.1B v 9.3B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Q2 Final GDP Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.3%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone July CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: 14.9B v 13.8B prior; Trade Balance NSA: 17.3B v 14.5B prior
- (IT) Italy Jun Current Account Balance: 3.3B v 852M prior


Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,480, DAX -0.20% at 8,358, CAC-40 flat at 4,092, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,745, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 17,495, SMI -0.50% at 7,942, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,658]

Market Focal Points: Speculation related to Fed tapering, "Fat finger" trade in China, US/Japan/India equity declines, AP Moeller-Maersk raised FY outlook, Gold miners rise on higher prices

By Sector
- Basic Resources
[Fresnillo +5%, Randgold +4%; Most of the European precious metals miners have tracked the recent gains in gold prices; EuroStoxx Basic Resources index +0.60%]
- Telecom [Telecom Austria -1% (capital raise concerns); EuroStoxx Telecom index flat]
- Technology [Opera Software OPERA.NO +6% (raised outlook); Anite AIE.UK -9% (cautious outlook), STMicroelectronics -1.5% (broker commentary); EuroStoxx Technology index -0.6%]
- Airlines [Lufthansa -4% (broker commentary), Air Berlin -3.5% (tracks declines in Lufthansa)]
- Industrials [Balfour Beatty +5% (broker commentary), AP Moeller-Maersk +4.5% (Raised FY outlook); EuroStoxx Industrials index flat]
- Financials [RBS -2% (broker commentary), ING -2% (broker commentary), Aviva -1% (broker comments); EuroStoxx Financials index +0.10%
- Utilities [EuroStoxx Utilities index +0.80% (underperformed earlier during the week)]

Speakers:
- Germany said to be liable for 122B under all euro rescue packages; govt plays down the amount. German Finance Ministry officially puts liability for Euro crisis at 95.3B
- Norway Central Bank: Gov Olsen to go on sick leave for six weeks after hip surgery
- UK government is expected to tax offshore gambling companies, effective in Dec of 2014
- German Verdi union calls for Hesse waterway workers to strike starting on Wed Aug 21st
- Hong Kong revised its 2013 GDP growth forecast 2.5-3.5% from 1.5-3.5%, cuts inflation estimate to 4.3% from 4.5%, cuts forecast for underlying CPI to 4.0% from 4.2%
- Indonesia President Yudhoyono gave his annual budget speech for 2014 outlook which forecasted 2014 inflation at 4.5%, GDP growth at 6.4%. He foresaw 2014 budget deficit 1.49%, debt-to-GDP 22-23% by year end
- India Fin Ministry: India markets falling due to global factors such as the possibility of a Fed taper

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Rising expectations of Fed policy tapering and better US data had sent bond yields to multi-year highs and causing some risk aversion in equity markets. US data would provide further information on the pace of the housing recovery. The USD price action was another story with traders looking for rational to its softness over the past 24 hours. Overall dealers noted that the action had no rhyme or reason to the move. EUR/USD closing pattern has traded between 1.32-1.34 the past two weeks
- The GBP/USD pair continued to benefit from better economic data and could be a headache for the BoE as short term interest rates rise
- The Asian session encountered volatility. The India's rupee again hit fresh record lows just under the 62 handle despite measures announced by the RBI. The Chinese yuan back at an all-time high while the Shanghai Composite was roiled by a likely trading error.

Political/In the Papers:
-(DE) German Chancellor Merkel: Euro crisis is not over - campaign speech; Expects very close German election results
- (ES) Spain PP split about possible reshuffle at top of party; party wishes to regain credibility - El Pais; Number one Rajoy seen remaining, Number two De Cospedal will mostly likely remain, Number three Arenas may be out
- (CN) At one point on Friday, the Shanghai Composite traded higher by over 5.5% on no news. Some of the speculated causes for the move higher include a possible "fat finger" trade, monetary easing speculation, option expirations and talk that China's securities regulator (CSRC) could comment on a plan to launch a preferred share scheme.
- (JP) Moody's Vice President Byrne: Japan needs sales-tax increase and fiscal discipline; Needs long-term growth of 2% to stabilize debt.
- (NZ) Magnitude 6.8 earthquake reported near Wellington, New Zealand - USGS

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 9th: No est v $277.3B prior
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech lawmakers meet to discuss dissolving Parliament
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 0.9% prior
- 08:00 (IS) Iceland July Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +1.2%e v -4.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) July Housing Starts: 900Ke v 836K prior; Building Permits: 945Ke v 918K prior (revised 911K)

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Int'l Securities Transactions: C$7.3Be v C$6.7B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland July YTD Budget Balance (PLN): No est v -26.0B prior; Budget Performance: No est v 73.0% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jun Trade Balance: No est v 366.7M prior
- 09:55 (US) Aug Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 85.2e v 85.1 prior
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Waren
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Kiel
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Jun Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.5%e v 7.8% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Trade Balance: $600Me v $315.4M prior; Imports CIF: No est v $5.2B prior
- 18:00 (DE) Germany opposition official Steinbrueck speaks at SPD 150th Anniversary Event in Berlin

Weekend:
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speech in Cloppenburg at CDU Lower Saxony Congress

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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