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Friday August 16, 2013 - 16:47:31 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets - www.lloydstsb.com/corporatemarkets

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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - SIGNS OF GROWTH FEED RATE MARKET DOUBTS

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 16 AUGUST 2013

 

SIGNS OF GROWTH FEED RATE MARKET DOUBTS

 

FOMC minutes watched as countdown to tapering continues

Euro area ‘flash’ PMIs suggest recovery, but ongoing travails suggest a slow one

• UK GDP and public finances to record signs of broadening recovery

 

Thin markets exaggerate moves... It is unclear how much current financial market pricing reflects fundamentals and how much it is being exaggerated by thin market conditions - the latter is certainly playing some role. However, markets have generally reflected firmer economic news. Equity markets have risen, with both the S&P 500 and Euro 300 indices around all-time and multiyear highs respectively. Bond yields have also risen further, with 10-year rates in the US, Germany and UK at multi-year highs. The coming week is unlikely to bring fresh direction, with little scheduled news. US FOMC minutes, euro area ‘flash’ PMIs and UK GDP maintain some interest for key regions. Meanwhile the Jackson Hole central bankers symposium will be a focus for markets as key central banks’ control over the front end of their respective curves slips.

 

Tapering beyond September? ... A quiet week for US releases leaves the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting as the key US focus. These will be scanned for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s tapering strategy. Markets are now starting to debate by how much the Fed will taper in September (consensus $15-20bn), rather than whether it will happen. But there is also uncertainty regarding the outlook for tapering beyond September, assuming it is announced then. In particular, we will watch for any signs that the Federal Reserve is mindful of the debt ceiling issue that is due to flare up again just as Congress returns after the summer.

 

Central banks see limit of influence? ... The central bankers symposium in Jackson Hole (Thursday and Friday) has provided an insight into policy makers thinking in recent years (and a platform to signal future policy intentions). This year policy makers may reflect on the limits of their influence. Interest rate markets are responding to signs of improving economic activity and casting aside varying degrees of ‘forward guidance’ from central banks. The meeting in Wyoming may give them another opportunity to influence market expectations.

 

Euro area posts subdued recovery ... The euro area emerged from recession in Q2, posting a 0.3% expansion. The coming week’s ‘flash’ PMI estimates for August will help gauge whether this will be maintained. Our global team looks for a further modest rise in August, which should be consistent with continued expansion in Q3. But we think that the pace of growth is likely to remain modest, both this year and next. Although the deferral of fiscal tightening in several economies across the euro area should help lift growth next year, corporate lending rates have barely eased over the last 18-months. Coupled with ongoing uncertainty over broader issues of integration, such as the banking union, this is likely to weigh on business investment and keep the ongoing recovery subpar.

 

Broadening UK recovery... In the UK, the second estimate of Q2 GDP is due on Friday. An upward revision to construction output looks insufficient to raise the preliminary 0.6% GDP growth estimate, although it adds some upside risk. The release will include the first estimates of the expenditure components, which we expect to show positive contributions from net trade, investment and household spending, illustrating that the recent pick up in activity has been broadly based. The week also includes the latest update of the public finances (for July) - these have started the financial year relatively strongly and again appear to reflect the better fortunes of the wider economy. However, both releases will keep interest rate markets wary of the need for a normalisation of the rate outlook sooner than the Bank’s current guidance suggests

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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