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Tuesday August 20, 2013 - 10:02:45 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Emerging markets continue to be rattled by steepening US yield curve EU Market Update: Emerging markets continue to be rattled by steepening US yield curve
Tue, 20 Aug 2013 5:36 AM EST

- Emerging market stress remains in focus; India currency hits fresh record lows above 64; Indonesia Rupiah at 4+ year lows above 10,700
- RBA minutes suggest policymakers straddling both sides of the fence on further easing; Will not close off to possibility of further rate cuts but also did not want to signal further imminent easing
- Daily Shibor fixings: 1-week: 4.4280% (highest since July 31st) v 4.0920% prior
- Taiwan's July Export Orders register its first expansion in six months (+0.5% vs. -1.0%e)
- Norway Q2 GDP averts technical recession but comes in below expectations; (+0.2% vs. 0.5%e)
- Spain sells just above it's indicate range in bills at lower funding cost but bid-to-cover a tad soft

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan July Nationwide Dept Sales Y/Y: -1.0% v 7.2% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: -1.0% v 9.4% prior
- (DE) Germany July PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e
- (FI) Finland July Unemployment Rate: 6.6% v 7.4%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jun Leading Indicator: 101.0 v 101.6 prior
- (JP) Japan July Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.8% v +0.1% prior
- (EU) ECB 76M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 111M prior; 82.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 81.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Consumer Confidence Index: -33 v -35e
- (TW) Taiwan July Export Orders Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.0%e; first expansion in six months
- (NO) Norway Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 1.0%e; GDP Mainland Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.7%e

- (TW) Taiwan Q2 Current Account Balance: $13.8B v $11.1B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July CPI Composite Y/Y: 6.9% v 4.8%e
- (UK) UK July gross mortgage lending m/m: +12% (highest since Oct 2008) - CML
- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Construction Output M/M: +0.7% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.8% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.15B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills

- Sold 1.34B in 6-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.83% v 0.958% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.95x v 3.5x prior; Max Yield: 0.850% v 0.968% prior; Tail: 2.0bps v 1.0bps prior
- Sold 2.81B in 12-month bills; Avg Yield: 1.253% v 1.503% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 2.6x prior; Max Yield: 1.278% v 1.520% prior; Tail: 2.5bps v 1.7bps prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.0B in 2016 and 2023 Bonds
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 4.5% 2019 Bonds; Yield: 2.42%; bid-to-cover 2.0x
- (EU) ECB allotted in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 98.0Be
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF697.2M in 6-Month Bills; Yield: -0.063% v -0.119% prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.75B in 0.125% I/L 2019 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.887%; Bid-to-cover: 1.83x


Indices [Stoxx50 -1%
,FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,437, DAX -0.90% at 8,289, CAC-40 -1.2% at 4,033, IBEX-35 -1.5% at 8,519, FTSE MIB -1.3% at 17,026, SMI -0.20% at 7,927, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,644]

Market Focal Points: Fed minutes (to be released on Wed), Weaker than expected mining earnings (BHP and Glencore), European banks decline as peripheral spreads widen, Continued emerging markets sell-off, Upcoming US retail earnings (Home Depot, BestBuy, JC Penney)

By Sector
- Basic Resources
[Glencore GLEN.UK -3% (H1 sales below ests), BHP BLT.UK -3% (FY results below ests), ArcelorMittal MT.NL -3% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [GSW Immobilien GIB.DE +8%, Deutsche Wohnen DWNI.DE -2.5% (GSW received offer from Deutsche Wohnen)]
- Consumer Discretionary
[Charles Voegele VCH.CH +7% (narrowed H1 loss), Lindt LISP.CH +2% (H1 profits rose y/y)]
- Industrials [Komax Holding KOMN.CH +10% (to exit solar business); John Wood Group WG.UK -7% (cautious outlook), CRH CRH.UK -5% (H1 results below ests)]
- Healthcare [Straumann STMN.CH +5% (H1 results above ests)]

- Sectors for EuroStoxx50 [Industrial -1.4%, Utilities -1.3%, Consumer Cyclical -1.3%, Financials -1.2%, Basic Materials -0.8%, Energy -0.7%, Technology -0.70%]

- France Fin Min Moscovici
stated that he sought to have full employment in France in 10 years; France is leading Europe out of recession
- ECB's Asmussen (Germany) to visit Greece to discuss the adjustment program on Wed Aug 21st
- Japan PM Abe's adviser Honda stated that the BoJ could buy riskier assets to cushion the impact of the planned sale tax hike
- Japan Econ Min Amari: There is a good balance of views regarding the Japan sales tax study panels (**Note there are 7 panels discussing this topic between Aug 26-31st period)
- India govt said to be planning to sell stake of Hindustan Zinc and Balco via open auction; proceeds to help finance the current account deficit

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The major FX pairs remained locked within recent ranges and awaiting the release of the FOMC minutes on Wed.

- The EUR/USD was making another test to break above the 1.34 handle which has been the upper end of a 2-week trading range
- The NOK currency weakened to 5-week lows after Norway's Q2 GDP came in below market expectations the EUR/NOK surged higher by 1.3% to test above the 8.00 level
- Emerging market currencies remain pressured by capital outflows. The USD/INR pair tested above the 64 level as the rupee hit fresh record lows. Moody's warned it would be "very challenging" for India to meet this year's fiscal deficit target of 5.3%

Political/In the Papers:
- ECB Money Market Contact Group (June meeting minutes): Another interest ate cut might increase banks' dependence on ECB
- EU Commission to send observers to Gibraltar to track money movements and oversee border crossings

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PL) Poland Cabinet meets to discuss revised 2013 Budget
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal July PPI M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July PPI M/M: No est v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland July Property Prices No est v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 1.5B in 6-month bills; Yield: % v +0.071% prior; Bind-to-cover: x v 2.0x prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 192.5B
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave key rates unchanged; leave Benchmark Repurchase Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 7.25%; Leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July Sold Industrial Output M/M: 0.3%e v 2.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 3.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland July PPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -1.5% prior
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech lawmakers might vote to dissolve Parliament
- 08:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Schwentinental
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: -0.5%e v 2.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) July Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.10e v -0.13prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v -16 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 0.8% prior; GDP Nominal Y/Y: 5.0%e v 3.0% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Economic Activity Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.7% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Erlangen
- 11:00 (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Detmold
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $70B in 4-week and 52-week Bills
- 11:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Kellinghusen
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Hamburg
- 14:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Dachau
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q2 Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.9% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories



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