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Wednesday August 21, 2013 - 10:08:55 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Focus on details within Fed minutes on possible tapering of QE

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Focus on details within Fed minutes on possible tapering of QE
Wed, 21 Aug 2013 5:46 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Focus on release of FOMC minutes for tapering clues.
- Emerging Market currencies continue to soften on Fed taper concerns
- UK July PSNB (ex interventions) registers its first deficit for the month in almost 3 years on higher spending
- German 2-year Schatz yield hits highest level since March 2012
- Italy PM Letta confident that internal bickering can be resolved

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan July Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -0.5% v +2.7% prior
- (CH) Swiss July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.8 v 11.3% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BI) left Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- (ZA) South Africa July CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.2%e
- (UK) July Public Finances (PSNCR): --19.6B v -8.7Be; PSNB ex Interventions: + 0.1B v -2.9Be (first July deficit in 3 years); Public Sector Net Borrowing: -1.6B v -5.0Be
- (IS) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) left its 7-Day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00%, as expected

- (MY) Malaysia July CPI Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e


Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.59% vs. $0.0M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 2023 bonds; Yield: 2.3914% v 1.9592% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3- month Bills; Yield: 3.95% v 3.96% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.74x v 1.94x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 4.09B in new 0.25% 2015 Schatz; Yield: 0.23% (highest since March 2012) v 0.07% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.03x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total vs. 1.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month bills
- Sold 300M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.766% v 0.743% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.4x v 4.8x prior
- Sold 700M in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.619% v 1.72% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 1.8x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: [Stoxx 50 flat, FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6407, DAX -0.30% at 8275, CAC-40 flat at 4026, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8456, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 16,922, SMI -0.40% at 7906, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1645]

Market Focal Points: Fed minutes due later today, FTSE 100 hurt by HSBC ex-dividend and weaker metals prices, European beer markets report weaker than expected results (Heineken, Carlsberg)

By Sector
- Consumer Discretionar
y [AGA Rangemaster +4% (H1 sales rose y/y), Carpetright +2% (broker commentary); Heineken -3.5% (H1 results below ests), TomTom -3.5% (played down takeover speculation), Sixt -2% (H1 profits declined y/y), Carlsberg -1% (Q2 results below ests)]
- Telecom [KPN +2% (America Movil plans to launch offer in Sept), Kabel Deutschland +1.5% (Germany declined to review planned Vodafone merger)]
- Energy [Vestas Wind +9% (Q2 profits above ests, named new CEO)]
- Industrials [Heijmans -5% (H1 results below ests, rights offering)]
- Basic Resources [BHP -1.5% (follow-through selling), African Barrick Gold -1.5% (named new CEO, lower gold prices); International Ferro Metals +8% (raised resource est)]
- Financials [HSBC -2% (ex-dividend)]
- EuroStoxx50 sectors [Utilities -0.90%, Technology -0.10%, Financials -0.10%, Energy -0.10%, Industrials flat ; Telecom +0.30%]

Speakers:
- PDL's Berlusconi party said to have given Italy PM Letta 10 days to find a solution to allow Berlusconi to stay in politics or face the withdrawal of PDL from the Grand coalition

- Russia Econ Min Ulyukayev commented that it could cut Russian growth forecast for 2013 (**Note: Currently at 2.4%)
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus: Global economy was not yet through financial crisis
- Thailand Central Bank commented after its rate decision that vote was 6 to 1 to hold rates steady with the dissenter seeking a 25bps cut. Current accommodative stance was still necessary and appropriate and it would monitor risks to financial stability. Thailand had more concerns about growth at this policy meeting but rising household debt limited scope for lower rates
- India Economic Affairs Sec Mayaram: Country has no proposal to lease gold purchased from the IMF
- Indonesia President Yudhoyono: To announce economic policy package on Friday, Aug 23rd to address recent economic problems. 2013 GDP growth target of 6.3% was difficult to achieve
- Japan Fin Min Aso reiterated govt view that it saw improvements from all of Japan economic indicators and saw no convincing reason to postpone sale tax increase. Economy would not lose speed if tax hike was implemented as planned

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX markets were subdued ahead release of the FOMC minutes later today
. Overall the USD has been somewhat dazed and confused the past few weeks and appeared to be a bit of a conundrum as the FED prepared itself to wean from easy money in contrast to the ECB, BOE, and BOJ. Among the emerging countries that run a large current account deficit the USD continued to be king.
- EUR/USD encountered some profit taking after hitting 6-month highs on Tuesday at 1.3452. The pair dipped below the 1.34 by mid-European morning.
- The Indian INR currency (Rupee) hit a new fresh record lows against USD, moving beyond INR64.45 before the RBI was said to be intervening in FX markets selling USD to support the rupee via State Banks
- The South African Rand currency was edging back to record lows after its July inflation came in a bit hotter. The USD/ZAR approached the current highs set back in June at 10.37
- The Italy 10-year gov't yield crept higher in the session towards 4.37% vs. 4.30% earlier in session on concerns of the Italian political situation

Political/In the Papers:
- EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Rehn did not rule out third bailout package for Greece and that other options were available to support the aid program.
- (IT) Italy PM Letta: Senate to vote on ending Berlusconi's mandate as senator following conviction for tax fraud, convinced ruling party will make "the right choice"; Reiterates that Italy requires political stability; Govt will pass important fiscal measures during session on Aug 28th.
- (NL) Fitch affirms Netherlands AAA sovereign rating; outlook Negative
- Syria activists and medical workers are reporting that over 200 people have been killed in nerve gas attacks in eastern Ghouta region of Damascus by Assad forces
- (US) Moody's: US local govt outlook remains Negative; outlook for the 50 US states revised to Stable from Negative
- (JP) Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda: Will not hesitate to implement further easing if risks to economy materialize - Japanese press interview

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Hannover
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel answers questions at a Stuttgarter Zeitung Event
- (EG) EU Foreign Ministers meet again on Egypt
- (GR) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) in Athens
- 06:00 (UK) Aug CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -8e v -12 prior; Selling Prices: 3e v 2 prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Q2 GDP Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.1% prior
- 06:00 (MY) Malaysia Q2 Current Account Balance (MYR): 0.9Be v 8.7B prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Floating and fixed rate Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia to sell RUB10B in May 2016 OFZ bonds
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Aug 16th: No est v -4.7% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Aug IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 6.1%e v 6.3% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: -0.5%e v +0.1% prior
- 10:00 (US) July Existing Home Sales: 5.15Me v 5.08M prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Schwbisch Gmnd
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Gross-Gerau
- 14:00 (US) Fed Minutes from Jul 30-31 FOMC Meeting
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Trade Balance: $1.1Be v $1.2B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Aug HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI: 48.1e v 47.7 prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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