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Thursday August 22, 2013 - 10:54:58 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Bulk of major European PMI data beats market expectations; German and Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing hits 1 three-year high EU Market Update: Bulk of major European PMI data beats market expectations; German and Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing hits 1 three-year high
Thu, 22 Aug 2013 5:36 AM EST

- FOMC minutes still left unanswered questions; Broad support for tapering timeline; some Fed members willing to lower Unemployment threshold; A few officials want to be patient before final decision on bond purchases and less confident about near-term economic developments
- WSJ's Hilsenrath: Minutes reaffirmed plans on tapering but leave investors unsure on timing or size; on track to start as early as Sept
- Emerging market currencies remain under pressure; India and Turkey currencies at fresh record lows against the USD; Brazil at 5-year low
- BoE's Weale (Hawk) (Telegraph): can envisage circumstances when further QE may be needed;
- China Aug HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing moves back into growth for 1st time in 4 months; (50.1 v 48.2e; some eyebrows were raised by the sudden sharp reversal in the data
- Japan investors sold net 903.8B in Foreign Bonds last week (net sellers for 1st time in 7 weeks
- German and Euro Zone advance PMI Manufacturing hit 3-year highs; France disappoints and remains in contraction for the 18th straight month

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss July Trade Balance (CHF): 2.4B v 2.6Be; Real Exports M/M: -1.9 v +3.1% prior; Real Imports M/M: +3.2 v -2.6% prior

- (JP) Japan July Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -12.2% v -12.1% prelim
- (DK) Denmark July Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: +0.1 v -1.9% prior
- (FR) France Aug Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 49.7 v 50.2e (18th straight contraction); PMI Services: 47.7 v 49.2e
- (EU) ECB 6M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 39M prior; 83.55B parked in deposit facility vs. 87.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (DE) Germany Aug Advance PMI Manufacturing: 52.0 v 51.1e (highest level since July 2011); PMI Services: 52.4 v 51.7e
- (NL) Netherlands Jun Consumer Spending Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.9% prior
- (SE) Sweden July Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.6%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 7.8% v 8.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Advance PMI Manufacturing: 51.3v 50.7e (highest since Jun 2011); PMI Services: 51.0 v 50.2e (first growth in 19 months); PMI Composite: 51.7 v 50.9e

Fixed Income:
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF44B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 +1.1%
, FTSE 100 +0.90% at 6,445, DAX +1.1% at 8,374, CAC-40 +1% at 4,054, IBEX-35 +1.7% at 8,602, FTSE-MIB +1.5% at 17,150, SMI +1% at 7,967, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,643]

Market Focal Points: Better than expected European earnings (Ahold, Nobel Biocare), Equities rise as China and Germany PMI above expectations, Banks rise (amid recent underperformance) as traders assess Fed minutes, Indian markets rebound, peripheral markets lead equity gains, China data supports FTSE-100 listed miners, US jobless claims and start of the Fed's Jackson Hole summit later today

By Sector
- Basic Resources
[New World Resources NWR.UK +5% (reaffirmed FY production forecast), London Mining LOND.UK +4.5% (H1 results rose y/y); Gold Fields GFI.ZA -9% (Q2 production declined)
- Telecom [Drillisch DRI.DE +5% (broker commentary), KPN KPN.NL +1% (speculation related to American Movil's offer)
- Healthcare [Nobel Biocare NOBN.CH +9% (Q2 results above ests), Biomerieux BIM.FR +3.5% (FDA approval)]
- Consumer Staples [Ahold AH.NL +4% (Q2 results above ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [RTL Group RTL.BE +3% (declared special dividend), Kuoni KUNN.CH +1.5% (swung to H1 profit)
- Energy [Rockhopper Exploration RKH.UK -7.5% (FY loss widened), Electromagnetic GeoServices EMGS.NO -7% (cut forecast), Premier Oil PMO.UK -5% (H1 results below ests)
- Financials [Raiffeisen Bank RBI.AT +2.5% (Q2 net interest income above ests); CPPGroup CPP.UK -21% (H1 results declined y/y, announced customer redress program)]
- Industrials [IMI IMI.UK +5% (H1 results rose y/y, raised dividend); Carillion CLLN.UK -3% (H1 sales declined y/y)
- EuroStoxx50 sectors [Utilities +1.3%, basic materials +1.2%, energy +1.2%, technology +1.1%, industrials +1%, telecom +0.8%, financials +0.7%]

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jochnick
commented that its July decision meant it could attain its inflation target and would balance fragile recovery at Sept meeting
- ECB said to consider curbs on collateral asset reuse; Banks and brokers might face EU curbs on number of times a single asset can be passed on as collateral in repurchase agreements and other secured trades
- Former ECB chief Trichet:
BoE gov Carney guidance may cause volatility
- China PBoC advisor Chen Yulu warned on competitive currency weakening noting that competitive currency depreciation between nations was a 'dead end'
- Deutsche Bank raises China H2 GDP forecast to 7.7% after good PMI data
- Moody sovereign analyst Byrne: South Korea economy decoupled from many Asian countries
- France Foreign Min Fabius called for the use of force if the alleged chemical attack in Syria was confirmed

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- FX dealers continued to digest the FOMC meeting minutes with most major pair's price action fairly contained. Although the summary give little hint of impending September taper, the USD entered the European session as US treasury yield stayed higher focusing on "broad support" in Bernanke's tapering timeline as well as acknowledgement of "solid gains" in recent payroll employment reports
- The EUR/USD moved off its worst levels of the session after better Germany and Euro Zone PMI data offset a miss by France. The pair was at 1.3350 just ahead of the NY morning.
- GBP/USD was softer into Europe following comments from BoE's Weale (hawk) that he could see circumstances when additional QE might be required. The pair was below the 1.56 level just ahead of the NY morning
- Emerging market currencies continued to be battered by Fed tapering concerns. The Indian currency (Rupee) hit fresh record lows against USD, moving beyond INR65.50. The Turkish Lira also hit record lows as USD/TRY pair tested 1.99 level. Brazil Central bank chief Tombini pulled out of the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium so he could meet President Rousseff to discuss the Brazilian Real currency, which hovered near 5-year lows at 1.45

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: Low bond yields are not a positive signal, narrowing bond yield spreads are a sign of stabilization; ECB needs to keep working to keep inflation low.
- (DE) German Finance Ministry sees pickup in domestic economic to continue in H2; Jul tax revenues at 44B, +1.9% y/y - financial press ; Exports to recover due to full order books.
-(GR) Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem: Greece will need another aid package after the current one expires in 2014 - press
- (UK) BoE's Weale: Can see circumstances when additional QE may be required - financial press interview; Although the economy has rebounded, does not believe it is in the midst of a boom; Current inflation is not being driven by wage growth but by changes in regulated and administered prices.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Summit
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Chemnitz
- (ES) Spain Jun Trade Balance: No est v -27.5M prior
- (PT) Portugal Jun Current Account Balance: No est v -72.3M prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 23rd: No est v $507.8B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 6.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank minutes
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 330Ke v 320K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.970Me v 2.969M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.4%e v +1.9% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.0%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export
- 08:58 (US) Aug Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing PMI: 54.2e v 54.0 prior
- 09:00 (US) Jun House Price Index M/M: 0.6%e v 0.7% prior; Q/Q: 2.5%e v 2.0% prior

- 10:00 (US) July Leading Index: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 6e v 6 prior
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency releases Safety Decisions
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Quedlinburg
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (US) Treasury Refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks CDU Election Event, Maria Laach
- 11:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Usingen
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Oschatz
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 5-year TIPS Reopening

- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks CDU Election Event
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Orlando, Florida
- 16:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew in CA
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.1%e v 6.5% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.0%e v -3.1% prior
- (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Confidence Index: -4.0%e v 47.5 prior




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