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Thursday August 22, 2013 - 15:47:40 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Strong Aug Prelim Manufacturing PMI Numbers Drive Global Rally US Market Update: Strong Aug Prelim Manufacturing PMI Numbers Drive Global Rally
Thu, 22 Aug 2013 11:27 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ES) Spain Jun Trade Balance: -106.7M v -27.5M prior
- (PT) Portugal Jun Current Account Balance: +172.7M v -439.4M prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 23rd: $507.8B v $507.8B prior
- (BR) Brazil July Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.8%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 336K v 330Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.999M v 2.970Me
- (CA) Canada Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -0.8% v 0.0%e
- (US) Aug Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 54.2e
- (US) Jun House Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Q/Q: 2.1% v 2.5%e
- (US) July Leading Index: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +57 bcf v +67-71 bcf expected range
- (US) Aug Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 8 v 6e

- The strong numbers seen in the advanced August Germany and euro zone manufacturing PMI data drove a solid rally on European equity indices overnight and complimented the Chinese manufacturing data. Then the US Markit preliminary August manufacturing PMI pushed out to five-month highs. The strong global data sent US equities higher in the first hour of trading, however markets are off their highs. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.25%, the S&P500 is up 0.74% and the Nasdaq is up 0.81%.

- The jobless claims numbers were higher last week than in the week before, for the biggest gain in the series in nearly six weeks. However the four-week average remains around 330.50K, the lowest level since November, 2007. The US 10-year yield came off its overnight electronic highs to test below 2.89%. After touching 1.3300 before the open, EUR/USD took out overnight highs and briefly traded 1.3370.

- Analysts continue to debate the real meaning of the FOMC minutes out yesterday afternoon. The WSJ's Hilsenrath asserted that the minutes reaffirm the Fed's existing timetable, which suggests the taper could begin as early as September. Others highlighted apparent growing uncertainty about the labor market and continuing low levels of demand. Many have pointed out that "a few" officials warned against putting too much attention on the "illustrative" 7% unemployment threshold and that "several" officials said they were "willing to contemplate lowering the unemployment rate threshold."

- Hewlett-Packard more or less met expectations in its third quarter results. There were troubling signs among its unit results: the PC personal systems unit has seen slumping revenue for a while, but the 9% slide in both the enterprise and enterprise services units - former islands of strength - has investors very nervous. In addition, the firm warned that revenue growth in FY14 would be unlikely. HPQ lost 12% before the open this morning and bottomed out at -18% mid morning.

- Abercrombie & Fitch is in full melt-down mode this morning after widely missing estimates on lower y/y revenue and income. Comps fell 10.7%. Guidance for Q3 was a fraction of the expected amount. ANF is down 17.5%. Limited Brands (now L Brands) managed to hit consensus targets and even raise its FY guidance a touch. Comps were positive. However the negative tone from ANF is hitting all the retailers and LTD is down nearly 2%.

- SunEdison (formerly known as MEMC) disclosed plans to spin off its semiconductor business into a separately traded public company, leaving it as a purely solar-oriented firm. The firm intends to maintain a majority stake in the new SunEdison Semiconductor. SUNE is up 18% on the news.

- Gamestop's earnings were very good, widely topping consensus views, even as comps were down 10% y/y. The company hiked its FY view slightly and said comps would be almost positive for the year. GME is up 12% on the report.

- Note that Verizon reached a new carriage deal with CBS even as rival Time Warner Cable's blackout of CBS content continues. CBS's CEO highlighted that the Verizon deal was very near to the deal offered by Time Warner and said it would be ready to cut a deal when Time Warner Cable is.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 5-year TIPS Reopening
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks CDU Election Event
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Orlando, Florida
- 16:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew in CA
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.1%e v 6.5% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -4.0%e v -3.1% prior
- (AR) Argentina Aug Consumer Confidence Index: -4.0%e v 47.5 prior



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