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Friday August 23, 2013 - 03:41:53 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 23-Aug-2013 -0339 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Equities are up smartly, especially in Asia today.

The Support mentioned on the Dow (14963.74, +0.44%) yesterday has held very well. A rise past 15000-200 on a Week-close basis today would bring the Bulls back.

Nikkei (13693.51, 2.46%) has risen sharply on Yen weakness. Support at 13200 on the Daily Candles has held well and we can see a rises towards 14300 now. Shanghai (2074.57, +0.36%) is also up and is consolidating now, which should enable to rise past 2075 eventually.

Nifty (5408.45) bounced yesterday in line with our expectation. We see good chances of further rise towards 5500, maybe higher in line with the bounce in global Equities.


COMMODITIES
Gold (1375.30) has risen. It is almost at the resistance level of 1375-1380.If the resistance is strong enough Gold may fall down to 1300. Silver (23.15) has risen and is consolidating at 22.50-23.50 levels and may rise to 24.

Copper (3.3380) has risen after a manufacturing index in China increased. It is consolidating between 3.30-3.35 before moving up to 3.40.

Nymex WTI (105.16) has bounced back after the sharp fall yesterday. The support at 103 is holding. A rise up to 107-108 can be expected. Brent (110.40) is now facing a crucial long term resistance at 111. Should that hold we may see a fall towards 108. Else a break above 111 can pull the market up to 114.


CURRENCIES
The Dollar Index (81.48) continues to trade above 81.0. The Euro (1.3347) has recovered a bit from yesterday's low of 1.3298, but looks indecisive in the near term. The Euro-Yen (132.07) looks relatively with some potential to rise past 132.30, the previus Range Resistance. This suggests that Dollar-Yen (98.95) could rise towards 100 after having broken above the crucial level of 98.40 cited as resistance yesterday.

The Pound (1.5583) is trading steady after fallen early in the day yesterday. It could see a bounce towards 1.5650 today while Support at 1.5560 holds. The Aussie (0.9024) has indeed bounced yesterday, in line with expectations. We could see a further rise towards 0.9120 now.

The Real, Rand, Rouble and Ringgitt all gained a bit yesterday. Dollar-Rupee (64.55) is quoting near 64.40 on the overseas markets and could come off a bit more towards 64.25.


INTEREST RATES
US 10-Yr (2.89%) is a little quieter. The chances of rise to 3.05% remain valid, but there could be some consolidation before the next leg of the rise. Expectations are that $15 bln will be the extent of tapering in the September FOMC meeting, bring the QE to $70 bln per month.

The Indian 10-Yr (8.36%) dipped some more yesterday, from 8.46% the day before. Some more dip may be hoped for as the market quietens down a bit. The German 10-Yr (1.92%) could consolidate here for a while before rising further.


DATA TODAY
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK GDP
...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous 0.60 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Expected 1.40 % ...Previous 1.20 %

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 492 K ...Previous 497 K


DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.

 

 

 

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14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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US/JP- Holiday
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Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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John M. Bland, MBA
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