Friday August 23, 2013 - 03:41:53 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Aug-2013 -0339 GMT
Equities are up smartly, especially in Asia today.
The Support mentioned on the Dow (14963.74, +0.44%) yesterday has held very well. A rise past 15000-200 on a Week-close basis today would bring the Bulls back.
Nikkei (13693.51, 2.46%) has risen sharply on Yen weakness. Support at 13200 on the Daily Candles has held well and we can see a rises towards 14300 now. Shanghai (2074.57, +0.36%) is also up and is consolidating now, which should enable to rise past 2075 eventually.
Nifty (5408.45) bounced yesterday in line with our expectation. We see good chances of further rise towards 5500, maybe higher in line with the bounce in global Equities.
Gold (1375.30) has risen. It is almost at the resistance level of 1375-1380.If the resistance is strong enough Gold may fall down to 1300. Silver (23.15) has risen and is consolidating at 22.50-23.50 levels and may rise to 24.
Copper (3.3380) has risen after a manufacturing index in China increased. It is consolidating between 3.30-3.35 before moving up to 3.40.
Nymex WTI (105.16) has bounced back after the sharp fall yesterday. The support at 103 is holding. A rise up to 107-108 can be expected. Brent (110.40) is now facing a crucial long term resistance at 111. Should that hold we may see a fall towards 108. Else a break above 111 can pull the market up to 114.
The Dollar Index (81.48) continues to trade above 81.0. The Euro (1.3347) has recovered a bit from yesterday's low of 1.3298, but looks indecisive in the near term. The Euro-Yen (132.07) looks relatively with some potential to rise past 132.30, the previus Range Resistance. This suggests that Dollar-Yen (98.95) could rise towards 100 after having broken above the crucial level of 98.40 cited as resistance yesterday.
The Pound (1.5583) is trading steady after fallen early in the day yesterday. It could see a bounce towards 1.5650 today while Support at 1.5560 holds. The Aussie (0.9024) has indeed bounced yesterday, in line with expectations. We could see a further rise towards 0.9120 now.
The Real, Rand, Rouble and Ringgitt all gained a bit yesterday. Dollar-Rupee (64.55) is quoting near 64.40 on the overseas markets and could come off a bit more towards 64.25.
US 10-Yr (2.89%) is a little quieter. The chances of rise to 3.05% remain valid, but there could be some consolidation before the next leg of the rise. Expectations are that $15 bln will be the extent of tapering in the September FOMC meeting, bring the QE to $70 bln per month.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.36%) dipped some more yesterday, from 8.46% the day before. Some more dip may be hoped for as the market quietens down a bit. The German 10-Yr (1.92%) could consolidate here for a while before rising further.
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK GDP
...Expected 0.60 % ...Previous 0.60 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Inflation Y/Y
...Expected 1.40 % ...Previous 1.20 %
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US New Home Sales
...Expected 492 K ...Previous 497 K
No major data release yesterday.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."