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Friday August 23, 2013 - 09:50:41 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Q2 GDP revised slightly higher in 2nd reading

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Q2 GDP revised slightly higher in 2nd reading
Fri, 23 Aug 2013 5:31 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's places six largest US banks on review which would consider reduced govt support.
- ECB's Nowotny: Recent better economic developments have removed need for a further rate cut
- Brazil Central Bank Statement: To start $60B currency intervention program to booster the BRL currency (real) from Friday, Aug 23rd through end-2013; To take further fx measures if necessary
- UK Q2 GDP revised slightly higher in 2nd of 3 reading

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 19th (RUB): 7.93T v 7.86T prior
- (SG) Singapore July CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.1%e
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Aug 17th (y/y): +7.4% v +7.1% prior
- (DE) Germany Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.7%e; ; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.9%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e
- (DE) Germany Q2 Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Capital Investment Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.5%e; Construction Investment Q/Q: 2.6% v 1.7%e; Exports Q/Q: 2.2% v 2.0%e; Imports Q/Q: 2.0% v 1.7%e
- (FI) Finland July Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +0.7% v -2.5% prior
- (DK) Denmark Aug Consumer Confidence: 5.9 v 3.5e
- (AT) Austria Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v -1.1% prior
- (EU) ECB 7.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 6M prior; 86.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 83.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 156.1K v 161.9K tons prior
- (TW) Taiwan July Industrial Production Y/Y: +2.1% v -0.5%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.3%e
- (UK) Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e

- (UK) Q2 Preliminary Private Consumption Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Government Spending Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.0%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: 1.7% v 0.5%e; Exports Q/Q: 3.6% v +1.5%e; Imports Q/Q: 2.5% v +1.1%e
- (UK) Q2 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: +0.9% v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v -16.5% prior
- (UK) Jun Index of Services M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; 3M/3M: 0.6% v 0.7%e
- (UK) July BBA Loans for House Purchase: 37.2K v 39.4Ke
- (IS) Iceland July Wage Index M/M: -0.1% v +0.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.7% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -0.2%
, FTSE 100 flat at 6,445, DAX -0.20% at 8,382, CAC-40 -0.60% at 4,033, IBEX-35 -0.25% at 8,607, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 17,208, SMI -0.30% at 7,966, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,651]

Market Focal Points: Mixed trading in Asia (Nikkei +2.2%), UK Q2 GDP revised slightly higher, Jackson Hole commentary later today, ECB's Nowotny and Germany Fin Min comments on rates amid rise in Bund yields

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Bachem BANB.CH +3.5% (H1 profits rose y/y, upbeat outlook)]
- Energy [Vopak VPK.NL +2% (reaffirmed outlook); Afren AFR.UK -4.5% (H1 profits declined y/y)]
- Industrials [FLSmidth FLS.DK +3.5% (announced cost cutting measures), Croda CRDA.UK +3.5% (broker commentary), Deutz DEZ.DE +2.5% (takeover speculation)]
- Financials [Commerzbank CBK.DE +2.5% (speculation related to German gov'ts stake), INGA INGA.NL +1% (broker commentary); MedioBanca MB.IT -2% (speculation related to share placement)]
- Technology [Xing AG O1BC.DE +10% (takeover speculation)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical -0.80%, Consumer Non-cyclical -0.70%, Industrials -0.60%, Utilities -0.30%, - Financials -0.10%, Telecom -0.10%; Technology +0.5%, Basic

Speakers/Events:
- Finland Finance Ministry publishes second supplementary budget;
2013 deficit seen around 9.0B vs. 7.9B prior due to weaker economic outlook
- Greece Aug Budget Revenues +11% y/y; seen exceeding monthly target by 400M (**Note: Aug tax revenue target is 3.9B)
- Former Cyprus Central banker Orphanides stated that Europe was still in existential crisis which could flare up following the Sept German elections
- Indonesia Econ Min Rajasa announced its policy package that addressed concerns over the country's deficit and the IDR currency (Rupiah). It would impose a higher tax on luxury goods and offer tax holidays and tax allowances along with strategic infrastructure projects
- Indonesia Fin Min Basri: Cuts 2013 GDP growth outlook to range 5.8-5.9% vs. 6.3% prior; To keep 20% tax on mineral ore exports but miners would be allowed to ship all of their production
- India Central Bank (RBI) official Mohanty: Lower real or nominal interest rates might not be enough to stimulate growth when non-monetary factors are headwinds to any revival in growth
- Russia said to have urged Syrian govt to cooperate with a UN experts mission and allow it to investigate the alleged use of chemical weapons

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The FX markets were subdued in European trading.
- A slight upward revision in Q2 UK GDP aided the GBP currency.
- The emerging market currencies saw a pause in the recent liquidation . Various govt continue to announce measures to address currency weakness and economic concerns. Brazil announced the start $60B currency intervention program to booster the BRL currency (real) from Friday, Aug 23rd through end-2013. Indonesia formally presented its measures to deal with its budget deficit and the IDR (Rupiah) currency weakness.

Political/In the Papers:
- (US) Moody's: Places six largest US banks on review; Reviews bank ratings to consider reduced govt support.
- Bank of International Settlements (BIS) official: Skeptical on long periods of extraordinary stimulus - financial press
- (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Greece economy might expand next year; reiterates that country would require new aid program and would not involve a haircut. Possible Greek aid would be much lower than in the past. Good that ECB has signaled it would raise interest rates when economy improves
- (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) spokesman Shen: July trade rebound was driven by govt policy supply and exporters' confidence; Aug trade data may see strong growth

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Summit continues
- (CH) Swiss government meeting
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Mainz
- (PE) Peru Q2 GDP Y/Y: 5.7%e v 4.8% prior
- (PT) Portugal Year-to-Date Budget Report
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Bonn
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 108.3 prior
- 07:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency releases Drug Approvals
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 16th: No est v $278.6B prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 123.0 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July CPI Core M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Aug Business Confidence: -11.3e v -12 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico July Unemployment Rate: 5.2%e v 5.0% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile July PPI M/M: No est v -0.4% prior
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Wiesbaden
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil July Current Account Balance: -$8.4Be v -$4.0B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.3Be v $7.2B prior
- 10:00 (US) July New Home Sales: 487Ke v 497K prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Q2 Current Account Balance: -$3.4Be v -$5.5B prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Aug Advance Consumer Confidence: -16.5e v -17.4 prior
- 10:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Boeblingen
- 11:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Kaiserslautern
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Mnster
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Recklinghausen
- 13:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Rottenburg
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Landau
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Industrial Production M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.8% prior

**Note: UK markets are closed on Monday, Aug 26th for summer holiday

 

 

 

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