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Friday August 23, 2013 - 17:11:45 GMT
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ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - UNSETTLED MARKETS POSE POLICY DILEMMA

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS  FRIDAY 23 AUGUST 2013

 

UNSETTLED MARKETS POSE POLICY DILEMMA

 

• Concerns of ‘Fed tapering’ prompt sharp sell-off in emerging markets

• Governor Carney watched for hints of more concrete stimulus

• Euro area growth improves, but debate over Greek bail-out casts a shadow

 

Spotlight shines on the emerging markets... With little key data or events in the advanced economies, the spotlight has been on the unfolding drama in emerging markets over the past week. With the notable exception of China, where renewed signs of economic stability have emerged, financial market volatility has returned with a vengeance. Amid fears of US tapering, those emerging markets that have relied heavily on global liquidity to finance large current account deficits have been particularly hard hit. The most notable casualties have been the INR, IDR and BRL, which fell to either record or new multi-years lows against the US dollar over the past week.

 

FOMC minutes point to tapering announcement... US developments over the past week have done nothing to dispel the notion that the Fed will soon start to taper its bond purchases. The minutes of the July 31/ Aug 1 FOMC meeting - published mid week - confirmed that Fed officials were ‘broadly comfortable’ with a plan to start reducing its bond purchases later this year. Barring a major rout in bond markets, we expect the Fed to formally signal its intention to start ‘tapering’ at its next FOMC meeting on Sept 17-18.

 

Chicago PMI to point to stronger Q3 US growth... With the exception of the Chicago PMI, the coming week’s US releases are mostly second tier, including durable goods orders, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), personal income & spending, and Michigan consumer sentiment. The general tone of the data, however, are likely to be firmer. We expect US GDP to be revised slightly higher, from 1.7% to 2.2% (saar), while a further improvement in the Chicago PMI should point to stronger US growth in Q3.

 

UK Q2 GDP revised higher... Closer to home, the past week delivered some further positive economic news. Q2 GDP was revised higher, from 0.6%q/q to 0.7%q/q, supported by across the board improvements in consumer spending, investment and net trade. The rise in investment spending is especially welcome, and may provide an early sign that the investment cycle is finally turning higher.

 

Carney watched for hints on QE... Looking to the coming week, the UK data calendar remains fairly thin. Our in-house Business Barometer will shed more light on the prospects for H2 growth. The latest money supply, personal lending, mortgage approvals and consumer confidence figures are also due, although we doubt these will prompt much of a market reaction. Instead, the most important event will be Governor Carney’s speech in Nottingham on Wednesday. Given the rise in money market rates and bond yields since the forward guidance announcement, the markets will be watching for any sign that the MPC could follow up with more concrete stimulus - including the possibility of more QE.

 

Euro area recovery gaining traction... The main focus in the euro area will remain on emerging signs of recovery. Over the past week, German Q2 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.7% in the second estimate, while the German ‘flash’ PMIs came in better than expected, posing an upside risk to the upcoming IfO survey. Apart from the IfO, focus will also be on consumer confidence, unemployment and CPI data in Germany, as well as CPI data for the euro area as a whole. Attention on the German election on 22 September also looks set to build. Although Angela Merkel is likely to take some solace from the improvement in economic sentiment, the debate over a possible third Greek bailout risks casting a long shadow

 

 

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 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.

 

This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.

 

Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively.

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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