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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Bad News Is Good News Yet Again

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Bad News Is Good News Yet Again
Mon, 26 Aug 2013 11:14 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (US) July Durable Goods Orders: -7.3% v -4.0%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -0.6% v +0.5%e; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: -3.3% v +0.5%e; Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: -1.5% v +0.3%e; Durables Ex-Defense: -6.7% v +2.9% prior
- (MX) Mexico July Preliminary Trade Balance: -$1.4B v -$0.5Be
- (IL) Israel Central Bank leaves the Base Rate unchanged at 1.25%, as expected
- (US) Aug Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 5.0 v 3.9e

- Bad news is good news this morning, as analysts consider whether the weak July durables goods report could give Fed officials pause when mulling a September taper. US equities are at their highs and European indices are recovering much or all of their earlier losses. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.21%, the S&P500 is up 0.28% and the Nasdaq has gained 0.55%.

- Orders for durable goods dropped 7.3% in July, nearly twice the expected amount, the first decline since March and the biggest falloff since August 2012. The key capital goods orders component fell 3.3%, versus expectations for a slight gain. The data is a blow for third quarter GDP and multiple analysts have reduced their estimates for Q3 GDP after the data.

- Front-month WTI crude is priced in the middle of the $103-108/bbl range seen over the last five weeks or so. After testing above $107 on Friday in the wake of the Syria chemical weapons attack in Damascus, WTI crude is around $106 mid morning. A growing chorus of voices is demanding military action in response to the chemical attacks, and there the feeling that action may be inevitable.

- After two months of negotiations, Amgen has secured a deal to acquire oncology research shop Onyx for $125/share in cash, in a deal valued at $10.4B. This is up from the firm's initial offer of $120/shr. The deal is being seen a key move for Amgen to restock its product pipeline in response to declining sales of its flagship anemia drugs.

- Just a few days after Nasdaq's high-profile market meltdown, competitors BATS and Direct Edge reached a deal to merge. The combination will create the second largest US stock market operation behind NYSE Euronext in terms of trading volume and surpass Nasdaq. BATS and DirectEdge combined carry over 20% of trading volume in the overall equity market. Both firms are privately-held, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

- In the energy space, Anadarko Petroleum has sold a 10% stake in its Mozambique offshore gas prospect to India's ONGC for $2.64B in cash. Anadarko will remain the operator of the project with a working interest of 26.5%.

- Hot tech firm 3-D Systems is up nearly 8% in the early going this morning after Citigroup analysts initiated coverage at a buy rating. Citi called the small firm the best positioned player in the new industry to capture a rapidly expanding market.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Zwickau
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Treasury releases July Federal Debt Data

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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