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Tuesday August 27, 2013 - 10:10:33 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Geopolitical risk weighs upon markets; emerging economies starting to buckle

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Geopolitical risk weighs upon markets; emerging economies starting to buckle
Tue, 27 Aug 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-US Secretary of State Kerry: Syria chemical attack undeniable; cannot cover up chemical weapon use; Obama believes there must be accountability for weapons use
- Brent Crude trades near $111.70/barrel; highest level since April on Mid-East jitters

- China Vice Fin Min Zhu: Confident to reach 7.5% GDP target and keep inflation below 3.5%; economy facing severe challenges internally and externally
- Emerging market equities and currencies continue to stagger; India Rupee and Turkish Lira hit fresh record lows of 66.07 and 2.0300 respectively
- German IFO Survey beats expectations: Business Sentiment rises for 4th straight month (107.5 vs. 107.0e)
- Spain and Italy have little difficulty selling debt in session despite safe-haven flows

***Economic Data***
- (NO) Norway Q3 Consumer Confidence: 22.4 v 22.8 prior
- (JP) Japan Aug Small Business Confidence: 49.7 v 49.4 prior
- (FI) Finland Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 5.0 v 7.4e; Business Confidence: -12 v -8 prior
- (HU) Hungary July Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.1%e
- (ES) Spain Jun Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y: -43.2 v -24.9% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -42.2 v -29.0% prior
- (EU) ECB 140M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 15M prior; 82.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 87.2B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Aug Producer Confidence Index: -1.6 v -3.1e
- (SE) Sweden July Trade Balance (SEK): 3.7B v 4.0Be
- (SE) Sweden July Household Lending Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.7%e
- (DE) Germany Aug IFO Business Climate: 107.5 v 107.0e (4th straight month of improvement); Current Assessment: 112.0 v 111.0e; Expectations Survey: 103.3 v 103.1e
- (TW) Taiwan July Leading Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July Trade Balance (HKD): -37.2BB v -45.0Be; Exports Y/Y: +10.6% v +3.5%e; Imports Y/Y: +8.3% v +5.0%e
- (CN) China July Leading Index: 100.18 v 99.81 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q2 GDP Annualized Q/Q: 3.0% v 3.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 1.9%e

Fixed income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency
(Tesoro) sold total 4.07B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold 1.01B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.155% v 0.442% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.5x v 4.0x prior; Max Yield: 0.199% v 0.469% prior
- Sold 3.06 in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.089% v 1.152% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.3x prior; Max Yield: 1.120% v 1.175% prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells 2.98B vs. 3.0B indicated in Jun Zero Coupon 2015 CTZ; Avg Yield: 1.871% v 1.857% prior (highest since Sept 2012); Bid-to-cover: x v 1.48x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 1.001B vs. 0.5-1.0B indicated range in I/L 2018 and 2026 BTPei
- (IN) India sold INR10B vs. INR10B indicated in 1.44% inflation-linked 2023 bonds; Avg Yield: 3.47%
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF681.2M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.044% v -0.087% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3- month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.93% v 3.95% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.97x v 1.74x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 97.1B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 98.0Be

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [EuroStoxx50 -1.5%, FTSE 100 -0.90% at 6,436 (closed prior session), DAX -1.5% at 8,309, CAC-40 -1.5% at 4,007, IBEX-35 -1.8% at 8,487, FTSE MIB -1.7% at 16,680, SMI -1.2% at 7,924, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1,644]

Market Focal Points: Fed tapering fears continue to weigh on emerging market and Southeast Asian assets, Events in Syria, German IFO above expectations, Italy banks extend losses amid political concerns

By Sector
- Financials
[Unicredit, Intesa -2.5% (political concerns), Zurich Insurance -2% (death of CFO)]
- Industrials [Daimler -2% (issued update on China plan), Volkswagen -2% (concerns about production delays in China), Aker Solutions -1% (Q2 results below ests), Imtech (H1 loss widened); Peugeot +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Super Group -2% (broker commentary), Debenhams -1% (broker commentary); Premier Foods +3.5% (broker commentary), Marks & Spencer +2% (broker commentary), Accor +1% (new CEO), Bunzl +1% (H1 profit rose y/y)]
- Technology [Ordina -5% (cautious outlook)]
- Basic Materials [Polymetal -6% (broker commentary), Bekaert -3.5% (CEO transition plan), ThyssenKrupp -2.5% (broker commentary), Antofagasta -2.5% (H1 profits declined y/y)
- Telecom [Telecom Austria -1.5% (renewed capital raise speculation), Carphone Warehouse +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Petrofac +3.5% (reaffirmed forecast, raised dividend)]
- EuroStoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical -2.1%, Financials -1.6%, Telecom -1.5%, Industrials -1.4%, Consumer Non-cyclical -1.2%, Basic Materials -1.1% Energy -1%, Technology -0.90%, Utilities -0.7%]

Speakers:
- IFO Economists reiterated that optimism was rising for export sector; economy had moved up in gear.
Euphoria in construction was fading but business remained solid. Economic recovery for EU could require extra stimulus
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci: Not concerned about Lira exchange rate. Have $40B of FX Reserves which can be used to defend TRY currency (Lira) (**Note TRY hit record lows above 2.03 in session)
- India Fin Min Chidambaram: Rupee has overshot its true level, it is undervalued. We have to be patient, be firm, do whatever is required to be done and rupee will find its appropriate level. Govt taking steps to address fiscal deficit even after the Food Security bill; fiscal deficit would be contained at 4.8% to GDP
- India Central bank (RBI) said to delay its next policy meeting by two days until Sept 20th to account for the Fed meeting
- Thailand Central Bank Dep Gov Pongpen: No concern on capital outflows due to sufficient foreign reserves (**Note: approx $170.8B)
- Philippine Central bank Gov Tetangco: Reiterates that will allow the PHP currency (peso) to respond to market forces; Will step in if it goes out of line
- France Debt Agency (AFT) chief Fayolle: Borrowing costs 'historically exceptional' and easing of debt crisis will not reduce demand. Seen very little impact from loss of AAA sovereign rating; Asian buying has helped to reduce French-German bond spread (Oat-Bund)
- Iran Foreign Ministry stated that a US attack on Syria would engulf the whole region. Warned of great consequences for the whole region and not restricted only to Syria

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk aversion flows stemming from concerns over Syria aided the USD, JPY and CHF against the European pairs
. Price action saw a rotation out of equities into the safe-haven of bonds.
- INR currency (Rupee) hits new fresh record lows against USD, moving beyond INR66 level. Rupee weakening on speculation that higher oil prices might increase the country's oil import bill. Other dealers noted the recent legislation of the food security bill a budgeted annual cost of around $18B that is intended to "wipe out" endemic hunger and malnutrition in the country
- Turkey Lira currency (TRY) hits new fresh record lows against USD, moving above the 2.0300 level

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Moody's: Does not see euro area periphery to reach pre-crisis GDP levels before 2016-17; Positive trade balance since 2011 is the main driver of changes in current account; these improvements are not in and of themselves a sufficient condition for sustainable growth, and the rating outlooks on periphery countries remain negative
- (GR) ECB's Asmussen (Germany): Greece will reach a primary budget surplus this year and grow in 2014 if it sticks to its economic reforms; Returning to the bond market may be more of a challenge
- (US) According to unnamed sources in the Obama cabinet, Larry Summers is in the leading role to be named the next Fed Chairman - CNBC

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event
- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell 1.8-2.8B of 2018, 2023 and 2032 OLO bonds
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell new 2014 Zero Coupon and Floating rate Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:50 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on Monetary Policy in Sweden
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP; to drain 190.5B
- 07:00 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) in Sweden
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Aug Industrial Confidence Index: No est v 108.7 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 75.5% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Base Rate by 10bps to 3.90%
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (US) S&P/ CaseShiller 20 City M/M: 1.00%e v 1.05% prior; Y/Y: 12.10%e v 12.17% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 156.14 prior
- 09:00 (US) Q2 S&P/ CaseShiller House Price Index Y/Y: No est v 10.17% prior; HPI: No est v 136.7prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (ZA) South Africa Crop Estimates Committee 7th summer grains output
- 10:00 (US) Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 0e v -11 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 79.0e v 80.3 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Winsen/Luhe
- 11:00 (UR) Ukraine to sell Bills and Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.25in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $50B in 4-week Bills
- 12:00 (FR) France July Net Change in Jobseekers: No est v 14.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.279M prior
- 12:45 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Gov Murray speaks at CABE
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $34B in 2-Year Notes
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 17.9% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 11.7% prior

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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