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Wednesday August 28, 2013 - 09:58:10 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Oil retreats from its overnight highs as Syria remains in focus EU Market Update: Oil retreats from its overnight highs as Syria remains in focus
Wed, 28 Aug 2013 5:33 AM EST

- Focus remains on Mid-East tensions; US to release proof of Syria chemical attacks on Thursday
- WTI Oil contract hits highest level since Aug 2008 above $112/barrel; bulk of gains evaporate on speculation that SPR might be tapped
- Emerging market currencies continue to bear brunt of volatility; Indian Rupee hits fresh record lows above 68 level

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany July Import Price Index M/M: +0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.5%e

- (CH) Swiss July UBS Consumption Indicator: 1,41 v 1.41 prior
- (DE) Germany Sept GfK Consumer Confidence: 6.9 v 7.1e
- (SE) Sweden Aug Manufacturing Confidence: 100.1 v 95.4e; Consumer Confidence: 99.3 v 98.3 prior; Economic Tendency Survey: 98.8 v 96.8e
- (TR) Turkey Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 77.2 v 78.5 prior
- (EU) ECB 229M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 140M prior; 80.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 82.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (IT) Italy Jun Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -1.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0%e; M3 3-month average: 2.5% v 2.4%e

- (IS) Iceland Aug CPI M/M: +0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 3.9%e

Fixed income:
- (EU) EFSF to sell 3.0B in new Sept 2034 bond at +37bps over mid-swaps
- (FI) Finland opened its book to sell 5-year Euro-denominated bonds; guidance seen at -15bps to mid-swaps with order book over 6.0B
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed % vs. $0.0M prior; 9th straight week of no allotment)
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.5B vs. 8.5B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.886% v 0.0799% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.47x v 1.47x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 6.8B in 3-month Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 5.0Be

Indices: [Stoxx50 flat,
FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,418, DAX -0.60% at 8,195, CAC-40 flat at 3,970, IBEX-35 -0.20% at 8,381, FTSE MIB +0.80% at 16,706, SMI -0.80% at 7,825, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,630]

Market Focal Points: Some stability in emerging markets amid pullback in oil prices, Mixed French Earnings (Accor, Bougyues), Higher oil prices weigh on airline and support shares of energy producers, FTSE MIB outperforms amid rebound in Italian banks, Upcoming speech from BoE Gov Carney and Italian cabinet meeting on IMU property tax

By Sector
- Industrials
[Agfa Gevaert AGFB.BE -1.5% (H1 sales declined y/y), BMW BMW.DE -1% (renewed speculation about possible luxury tax in China); Bouygues EN.FR +6% (Q2 op profit rose y/y), Finmeccanica FNC.IT +2% (renewed speculation related to Ansaldo unit)]
- Healthcare [Oxford Biomedical OXB.UK +19% (milestone payment), Algeta ALGETA.NO +4.5% (H1 results above ests)]
- Utilities [GDF Suez GSZ.FR +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Large Italian banks rebound from recent losses (UniCredit UCG.IT+1%), Commerzbank CBK.DE +1.5% (renewed takeover speculation)]
- Consumer Staples [EMMI EMMN.CH -5% (H1 profits below ests); Delhaize DELB.BE +1.5%(broker commentary)]
- Energy [Bourbon GBB.FR -2.5% (H1 profits declined y/y); Seadrill SDRL.NO +3% (Q2 results above ests, raised dividend), Statoil STL.NO +2.5% (broker commentary, higher oil prices)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Accor AC.FR -3% (cut FY forecast); 888 Holdings 888.UK +2.5% (H1 Results)]
- Basic Materials [Polymetal POLY.UK -6.5% (H1 profits declined y/y), Kenmare Resources KMR.UK (H1 profits declined y/y), Akzo Nobel AKZA.NL -1.5% (broker commentary), Salzgitter SZG.DE (to be removed from the EuroStoxx600)]
- Airlines [Airliners are broadly lower, amid the rise in oil prices to multi-year highs (Lufthansa LHA.DE -2.8%, Air France AF.FR -2.3%, IAG IAG.UK -2.3%)]
- Stoxx50 indices [Energy +2.1%, Utilities +1.8%, Financials +0.5%, Telecom +0.2%, Technology flat; Consumer Cyclical -0.7%, Consumer Non-cyclical -0.20%, Basic Materials -0.50%]

- UK PM Cameron: UK drafting a UN resolution condemning Syria attack

- UK govt spokesperson: UK PM Cameron and US President Obama say that a chemical arms attack took place in Syria and that the rebels did not have the means for a chemical attack. No decision had been made regarding Syria but when it did it would be a legal one and the response would be specific to the chemical attack
- Iran Supreme leader Khamenei: US intervention in Syria would be a disaster for the region
- UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon: UN inspection team in Syria needs time to complete its job
- EU's Rehn: Italy needs political stability to boost recovery ; He added that a proposal possibly in the fall on closing the Greek gap but premature to put figure on the financing deficit
- DIW Institute: German Q3 GDP seen at 0.4% (**Note: Q2 came in at +0.7% q/q)
- BoJ's Iwata: To continue easing until stable inflation is achieved; easing needs some time to penetrate into real economy which could take up to 1 year
- Indonesia Central Bank (BI) Gov Martowardojo: Sees slowdown continuing in H2 of year

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- The Mid-East jitters continued to be the main catalyst for FX price action and helped to keep the USD.JPY and CHF with firm undertones. Emerging markets continue to struggle from capital outflows as the Indian Rupee continued to hit fresh record lows as it approached the 69 handle. WTI hit 4-year highs in late Asian trade at $112.24/contract. Oil retraced over $2/barrel from overnight highs on concerns that the SPR could be tapped to offset the climb in oil prices.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Seeing a very slow recovery in the EMU, Q2 economic data has confirmed assessment there is a good economic situation; PMI readings are providing optimism
-(EU) ECB's Liikanen: Europe no longer at center of crisis - financial press
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel: "Greece shouldn't have been allowed into the euro"; "Chancellor Schroeder accepted Greece in and weakened the Stability Pact" - Telegraph citing her at a rally in Rendsburg
-(GR) Greece expected to ask troika for more time on the second round of civil servant reforms - Greek press
- (IT) Italy PD party's Epifani indicates the party will not accept the ultimatum on property tax, will meet with PM Letta later today - Italy press
- (CN) China Fin Min Lou Jiwei: China to expand consumption tax on some luxury goods and products with excessive consumption of resources or pollution - Xinhua
- (JP) Japan PM Abe will not reshuffle cabinet in the autumn - Japanese press
- (JP) Requests for Japan's FY14/15 budget said to exceed 100T for the 2nd consecutive year - Nikkei News

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the Selic Rate by 50bps to 9.00%
- (FI) Finland Government 2014 Budget Negotiations
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Bremen
- 06:00 (UK) Aug CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 20e v 17 prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e ending Aug 23rd: No est v -4.6% prior
- 08:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun Average Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 08:30 (UN) UN Sec Gen Ban Ki Moon
- 08:45 (UK) BOE Gov Carney speaks in Nottingham, England (first oublic speech since becoming BOE chief in July)
- 10:00 (US) July Pending Home Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.9%e v 9.1% prior
- 10:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Wilhelmshaven
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Ulm
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5 Year Notes
- 12:30 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Bremen
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 5-Year Notes
- 18:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Minden



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