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Thursday August 29, 2013 - 10:03:51 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: War drums beat at a slower pace; Emerging markets take domestic measure to combat currency weakness EU Market Update: War drums beat at a slower pace; Emerging markets take domestic measure to combat currency weakness
Thu, 29 Aug 2013 5:42 AM EST

- Impending military action against Syria appears to have hit a snag. UN inspectors are calling for more time to determine the extent of Assad's chemical weapons use, Pres Obama said his mind
- UK Gov has dropped plans for quick vote on British intervention
- Emerging market currencies steady; Rupee moves off record lows on RBI plans to sell USD to refiners
- Brazil Central Bank raises interest rate for the fourth time this year; +50bps hike to 9.00% (as expected)
- Indonesia raises Reference Rate by 50bps to 7.00% in a special policy meeting move
- Japan July Retail Trade come in worse than expected with its first decline in 3 months (-1.8% v -1.0%e)
- German Net Change in Employment rises in Aug for forst time in three months (+7K vs. -5Ke)
- Italy has little problem with its 5-year and 10-year bond sales

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany July ILO Employment: 41.804M v 41.775M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.3% prior
- (FR) France Aug Business Confidence: 98 v 95e; Production Outlook Indicator: -19 v -30 prior; Own-Company Production Outlook2 v 2 prior
- (ES) Spain Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.7%e
- (ES) Spain Aug Preliminary CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e
- (DK) Denmark July Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 4.3%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 5.7% v 5.8%e
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI Saxony M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0% prior
- (TR) Turkey July Trade Balance: -$9.8B v -$8.7Be
- (EU) ECB 1.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 229M prior; 63.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 80.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden July Retail Sales M/M: -0.7% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Q2 Current Account Balance (SEK): 46.9B v v 67.9B prior
- (DE) Germany Aug Unemployment Change: +7K v -5Ke (first rise in three months); Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.8%e
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.6% prior
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI Hesse M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Consumer Confidence Index: 98.3 v 97.8e
- (NO) Norway Q2 Manufacturing Wage Index Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.2% prior
- (UK) Aug Lloyds Business Barometer: 54 v 41 prior
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.6 v 2.1% prior
- (BE) Belgium Aug CPI M/M: -0.1 v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Business Confidence: 92.9 v 92.0e; Economic Sentiment: 82.2 v 79.8 prior
- (ZA) South Africa July PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.3%e
- (DE) Germany Aug CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.7% prior

Fixed income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.0B vs. 6.0B indicated in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds

- Sold 3.5B vs. 3.5B indicated in 3.5% June 2018 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.38% v 3.22% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.22x v 1.36x prior
- Sold 2.5B vs. 2.5B indicated in 4.50% 2024 BTP bond; Avg yield 4.46% v 4.46% prior; bid to cover 1.52x v 1.32x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B vs. SEK1.0B indicated in I/L 2022 Bond; Yield: +0.6849% v -0.0472% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.97% v 4.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.30%, FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,473, DAX +0.40% at 8,193, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3,976, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8,429, FTSE MIB +0.90% at 16,902, SMI flat at 7,777, S&P 500 Futures +0.25% at 1,637]

Market Focal Points: Indices rise amid stability in emerging markets and decline in oil prices; Carrefour, WPP and Gemalto earnings support equity markets; Vodafone M&A supports telecom sector; Airlines rebound and energy shares decline amid lower oil prices; FTSE MIB outperforms as Italy PM confirms cancelation of IMU property tax; Upcoming US data (Q2 prelim GDP, weekly initial jobless claims, Fed Bullard comments)

By Sector
- Financials
[HSBC HSBA.UK +1% (UK to allow banks to release portion of liquidity buffers), Baloise BALN.CH +1.5% (H1 profits rose y/y); Zurich Insurance ZURN.CH -1.5% (Chairman resigned)]
- Energy [Abengoa ABG.ES +6% (reaffirmed FY forecast), Maurel Et Prom MAU.FR +1% (H1 profits rose y/y)]
- Basic Materials [Petropavlovsk POG.UK -16% (reported H1 loss)]
- Industrials [Implenia IMPN.CH +5.5% (H1 profits rose y/y), Melrose MRO.UK +3.5% (H1 profits and sales rose y/y), Stagecoach SGC.UK +3% (Reaffirmed outlook); Tessenderlo TESB.BE -7% (Q2 results below ests)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Carrefour CA.FR +5% (Sharp increase in H1 profits for French unit), WPP WPP.UK +4% (raised outlook and dividend), Vivendi VIV.FR +2% (reaffirmed outlook for Universal unit); Cape -9% (cautious outlook)]
- Telecom [Vodafone VOD.UK +9% (talks with Verizon), Telecom Italia TIT.IT +3% (industry consolidation, speculation related to EU roaming fees), Deutsche Telekom DTE.DE +1% (industry consolidation, speculation related to EU roaming fees)]
- Technology [Gemalto GTO.FR +3% (H1 results rose y/y); Serco SRP.UK -10% (probe related to certain contracts)]
- Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom +1.6%, Consumer Cyclical +1.2%, Industrials +0.6%, Technology +0.6%, Financials flat, Basic Materials flat; Energy -0.9%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.4%]

- UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon: UN inspection team in Syria to leave country by Saturday, Aug 31st

- ECB's Nowotny (Austria): Certainty interesting question when rates rise, but cannot comment on policy 1-week before next council meeting; Reiterates ECB would stand ready if inflation accelerated as mandate is price stability; in theory excess liquidity could lead to inflation
- EU Commissioner Rehn reiterated view that European economy might have reached a turning point and saw a gradual yet subdued recovery. He cautioned that it was premature to suggest that the crisis was over; must not be complacent
- BOE Gov Carney stated that UK could not devalue it way to prosperity and stressed that export competitiveness must come from new markets and investment, He also cautioned that raising interest rates too soon would choke off the recovery
- India Government Advisor Rangarajan: Capital flows cause for concern in financing current account deficit. If high oil prices persist it will impact the country's inflation and fiscal deficit
- Australia opposition canditate Abbott: New coalition govt would seek strong ties with the US and China

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Geo-political risk factors eased up a bit in the session following remarks by President Obama earlier.

- The USD maintained a firm tone in the session against the major pairs aided by buying from Far East central banks. The EUR/USD still remains locked within its Aug trading range of 1.32-1.34 but was now back with a 1.32 handle. The USD/JPY p;air moved back above the 98 level.
- M&A flows helped to stem the losses in GBP. Vodafone confirmed it was in talks with Verizon in a potential $100B deal.
- The Emerging market currencies stabilized as various domestic measures were announced. India Central Bank RBI introduced Forex swap window to meet USD requirements of three-State oil-marketing companies that was seen as reducing daily demand from spot market by as much as $600M. Both Brazil and Indonesia raised interest rates.

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble: Would reject coalition government with the SPD party, Steinbrueck's SPD party would threaten progress the present government has already achieved; Warns that ESM funds would be rapidly exhausted if it was used for retroactive bank recapitalizations; The figure of 10-11B in aid through 2016 mentioned by Greece looks plausible.
- German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign: Reiterates SPD is for the European Bank Restructuring Fund and ould allow direct bank recaps. Germany will have to pay to keep Europe together and this is the right thing to do but he ruled out a second Greece debt haircut
- (IT) Italy PM Letta confirms IMU property tax on first homes has been cancelled; IMU to be offset by new services tax next year - financial press; Revenue lost from cancellation of IMU tax to be made up for by a new 'service tax' starting on Jan 1st, 2014.
-Vodafone [VOD.UK]: Verizon, Vodafone said to be in advanced talks regarding Verizon Wireless stake; Deal would likely cost Verizon more than $100B - financial press
- (SY) US President Obama: No decision made yet on Syria; direct military engagement in Syria civil war would not help - financial press interview; The goal of a limited, tailored strike would be to send shot across the bow to deter future chemical attacks.
- (US) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard notes the Fed could make a policy error if it ignores emerging markets

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck campaign event in Bremen Mnster
- (US) US Defense Sec Hagel attends ASEAN meeting
- (BR) Brazil July Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): No est v 1.3B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 06:00 (IL) Israel July Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.9% prior
- 06:00 (IT) Italy July Hourly Wages M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v -52.7 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: No est v -2.6 prior
-06:00 (IE) Ireland July Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.5% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 23rd: No est v $507.7B prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 5.2% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Aug Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Aug Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%ev 1.9% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.3% prior
- 08:00 (TR) Turkey Fin Min Simsek gives Keynote in Alpbach
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Bullard to speak to Leadership Memphis
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.2%e v 1.7% advance; Personal Consumption: 1.7%e v 1.8% advance
- 08:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 0.7%e v 0.7% advance; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% advance
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 331Ke v 336K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.99Me v 2.999M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q2 Current Account Balance: -$14.8Be v -$14.1B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada July Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (CL) Chile July Manufacturing Index Y/Y: +1.0%e v -2.7% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile July Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.9%e v 7.7% prior
- 09:00 (CL) Chile July Total Copper Production: No est v 482.3K tons prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil July Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.532T prior; M/M: No est v 1.8% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.259T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Celle
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Minden
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Walsrode
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Lacker in VA
- 19:30 (JP) Japan July Jobless Rate: 3.9%e v 3.9% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan July National CPI Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior
- 19:45 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on U.S. Economy in Tupelo, Mississippi
- 19:50 (JP) Japan July Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +3.6%e v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.8%ev -4.6% prior




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