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Thursday August 29, 2013 - 15:07:14 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Sentiment improves alongside an uptick in the Q2 GDP reading US Market Update: Sentiment improves alongside an uptick in the Q2 GDP reading
Thu, 29 Aug 2013 10:43 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (IL) Israel July Unemployment Rate: 6.3 v 6.7% prior
- (IT) Italy July Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prior
- (PT) Portugal Aug Consumer Confidence: -49.0 v -52.7 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -2.1 v -2.6 prior
- (IE) Ireland July Retail Sales Volume M/M: +6.1 v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: +4.7% v -0.4% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Aug 23rd: $508.1B v $507.7B prior
- (BR) Brazil Aug FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.9% V 3.8%e
- (DE) Germany Aug Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y:1.5% v 1.7%e
- (DE) Germany Aug Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e
- (BR) Brazil July PPI Manufacturing M/M: 1.2% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.2% prior
- (US) Q2 Preliminary GDP Annualized Q/Q: 2.5% v 2.2%e; Personal Consumption: 1.8% v 1.7%e
- (US) Q2 Preliminary GDP Price Index: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 331K v 332Ke; Continuing Claims: 2.989M v 2.99Me
- (CA) Canada Q2 Current Account Balance: -$14.6B v -$14.8Be
- (CA) Canada July Industrial Product Price M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 4.2% v 0.8%e
- (CL) Chile July Manufacturing Index Y/Y: 4.7% v 0.8%e
- (CL) Chile July Retail Sales Y/Y: 10.3% v 9.2%e
- (CL) Chile July Total Copper Production: 480.4K v 482.3K tons prior
- (BR) Brazil July Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): 2.546T v 2.532T prior; M/M: 0.6% v 1.8% prior; Private Banks Lending: 1.259T v 1.259T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: 7.2% v 7.2% prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: +67 bcf vs. +61-66 bcf expected range

Fixed Income:
None seen

- A second look at US Q2 GDP revealed the economy grew at a stronger clip than first thought and above consensus estimates. The positive news was somewhat offset by the fact that the biggest surprise was in the inventory component, which was revised up a little rather than down as forecast, which could potentially weigh on Q3 growth prospects. Exports and spending on business structures showed substantial growth which some suggested continue to paint an overall positive economic picture that is consistent with the Fed beginning to pull back its asset purchases next month. Equity markets have initially taken the track "good news is good news" and drifted higher in the early going, while initially selling in US Treasuries has subsided leaving benchmark 10-year yield little changed at 2.77%. Crude prices are also helping overall sentiment by giving back some of the recent gains. Officials in the US and Europe seem a bit more restrained in their remarks suggesting military action in Syria might not be as immanent as many have thought. Gold prices have given back 1% as well.

- Verizon and Vodafone shares are rallying on word that the two have resumed advanced talks regarding Vodafone's US group 45% interest in Verizon Wireless. The deal is said to be north of $100B and could include a stipulation that Vodafone repurchase 23% stake in Vodafone Italia.

- Guess shares have popped 10% following a strong earnings report. Operating margins improved y/y the company raised FY eps guidance.

- The USD maintained a firm tone in the session against the major pairs aided by buying from Far East central banks. The EUR/USD still remains locked within its Aug trading range of 1.32-1.34 but was now back with a 1.32 handle. The USD/JPY pair moved back above the 98 level.

- The Emerging market currencies stabilized as various domestic measures were announced. India Central Bank RBI introduced Forex swap window to meet USD requirements of three-State oil-marketing companies that was seen as reducing daily demand from spot market by as much as $600M. Both Brazil and Indonesia raised interest rates.

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (US) US Defense Sec Hagel attends ASEAN meeting
- (BR) Brazil July Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): 3.6Be v 1.3B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: + bcf vs. +61-66 bcf expected range
- 11:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Celle
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Minden
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Walsrode
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Lacker in VA
- 19:30 (JP) Japan July Jobless Rate: 3.9%e v 3.9% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan July National CPI Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior
- 19:45 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on U.S. Economy in Tupelo, Mississippi
- 19:50 (JP) Japan July Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +3.6%e v -3.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.8%ev -4.6% prior




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A 01:30 AU- Employment
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