Friday August 30, 2013 - 03:40:20 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 30-Aug-2013 -0337 GMT
Equities are overall up.
The Dow (14840.95) has risen after the US GDP yesterday which rose to 2.5%. It is expected to rise eventually towards the mid term resistance near 15000. At the same time the danger of a fall towards 14000 cannot be negated.
Nikkei (13390.45, -0.51%) has fallen on Yen weakness erasing its earlier rise. It needs to rise past 13600 to prevent further fall.
Shanghai (2105.00, +0.37%) is up still above 2075. While so, it may rise targeting the near term resistance at 2150.
Nifty (5409.05) bounced from a low of 5303 yesterday on Rupee strength. Its rise past 5400 has reduced fears in the market to some extent. A near term resistance is coming up at 5500.
Gold (1407.70) has dipped yet again. If the support at 1400 holds the prices may bounce back to 1425-1450.
Silver (23.91) has broken support at 24.We may see a fall to 22-21 if it does not recover from here.
Copper (3.2565) is now consolidating between 3.25-3.30. As we said yesterday if Copper doesn’t rebound from the support at 3.25 we may see it falling down to 3.10-3.20.
Nymex WTI (107.33) and Brent (113.92) fell for a second day after U.K. lawmakers rejected a motion for military action against Syria, reducing the prospect of an immediate strike. We may see the prices consolidating at these levels.
Euro (1.32469) has risen a bit but it needs to break the crucial resistance at 1.34 to ensure a rise further. Dollar index (81.926) has risen after GDP data release continuing to trade above 81.00. Pound (1.55153) has dipped a bit but remains above 1.55. The move ahead is unclear for now.
Dollar Yen (98.125) has risen but seems to be ranged for now. Charts show crucial resistance near 98-99 levels. If this holds we may see a fall towards a crucial support at 96. The Aussie (0.89409) is up a bit but remains in an overall down trend. It needs to rise sharply to avoid a further decline.
Dollar Rupee (66.595) strengthened yesterday. It may be pushed down a little more today towards 64.25 if the RBI decides to sell the dollar into a down move.
R currencies including the Rand (10.3298) are trading Low. The Brazilian Real has fallen as swap rates rises on central bank intervention.
US 10-Yr (2.78%) has risen from yesterday after the US GDP data came in at 2.5%.
The Japanese 10-Yr (0.70%) is still down. The support at 0.65% will prove crucial.
The British 10-Yr (2.77%) has come up to a resistance now. We may see it coming down to 2.5%.
The Indian 10-Yr (8.84%) has dipped a bit after the RBI opened the currency swap window for Oil companies.
23:01 GMT or 4:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected -13 ...Previous -16
23:15 GMT or 4:45 IST JP PMI
...Actual 52.2 ...Previous 50.7
23:30 GMT or 5:00 IST JP Unemp
...Actual3.8 % ...Expected 3.90 % ...Previous 3.90 %
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 12.10 % ...Previous 12.10 %
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Biz Climate
...Expected 93.00 ...Previous 92.50
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST IN GDP
...Previous - 4.8 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected -0.30 ...Previous 0.20
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.3%
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous 0.52 %
...Actual 2.50 % ...Previous 1.70 %
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