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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Plethora of economic data fails to inspire position taking into month-end and ahead of US holiday

 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Plethora of economic data fails to inspire position taking into month-end and ahead of US holiday
Fri, 30 Aug 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- House of Commons defeats PM Cameron's motion for military action on Syria; Oil prices decline in electronic trade
-IEA: Oil situation does not call for its response; Oil mkt adequately supplied; Watching supply & ready to act
- Japan economic data continue to reflect the impact of Abenomics
- Japan July Jobless Rate: 3.8% v 3.9%e; back to pre-financial crisis level
- Japan July National CPI Y/Y: 0.7%e v 0.2% prior (2nd consecutive increase)
- Japan July Preliminary Industrial Production M/M registers highest rate since June of 2011 (+3.2% v +3.6%e)
- Portugal constitutional court rejects a measure to make civil servant layoffs easier
- Italy July Unemployment Rate improves for the second straight month (12.0% vs. 12.2%e)
- UK July Mortgage Approvals registers largest rise in 5 year (60.6K vs. 58.8Ke)
- EMU Aug confidence data continues to improve

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan July Vehicle Production Y/Y: -1.5% v -9.5% prior
- (JP) Japan July Annualized Housing Starts: 975K v 994Ke; Housing Starts Y/Y: 12.0% v 14.3%e; Construction Orders Y/Y: 13.7% v v 21.9% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Aug 26th (RUB): 7.91T v 7.93T prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL sales for week ending Aug th (y/y): +6.6 v +7.6% prior
- (UK) Aug Nationwide House Price Index M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.3%e
- (DE) Germany July Retail Sales M/M: -1.4% v +0.6%e; Y./Y: 2.3% v 1.8%e

- (ZA) South Africa July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.4% v 8.5%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 7.4% v 8.7%e
- (FI) Finland Jun Final Trade Balance: 177M v 260M prelim
- (FI) Finland July House Price Index M/M: -1.7% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.7% prior
- (ES) Spain July Retail Sales WDA Y/Y: -3.8% v -5.0% prior (33rd straight month of negative readings); Retail Sales Y/Y: -2.0% v -6.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Aug KOF Leading Indicator: 1.36 v 1.32e
- (HU) Hungary July PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.7%e
- (DK) Denmark Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.4%e
- (EU) ECB 106M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.0B prior; 66.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 63.8B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (AT) Austria July PPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.8% v -1.0% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jun Wages Non-Manual Workers Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.3% prior
- (TH) Thailand July Current Account: -$709M v -$475Me; Trade Account Balance: $300M v $588M prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$ v -$3.1B prior; Exports Y/Y: -1.3% v -3.5% prior; Imports Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.9% prior
- (TH) Thailand July Business Sentiment Index: 48.3 v 49.9 prior
- (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 156.6K v 156.1K tons prior
- (PL) Poland Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.4% prelim; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8% prelim
- (IT) Italy July Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.2%e

- (IT) Italy Q2 Unemployment Rate: 12.1% v 12.1%e
- (CZ) Czech July M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 4.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.7%e
- (NO) Norway Jun AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.4%e
- (NO) Norway July Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel M/M: -1.3% v +0.2%e
- (ES) Spain Jun Current Account Balance: 2.6B v 2.4B prior
- (UK) July Net Consumer Credit: 0.6B v 0.6Be; Net Lending: 0.7B v 1.1Be
- (UK) July Mortgage Approvals: 60.6K v 58.8Ke; higher since Mar 2008

- (UK) July M4 Money Supply M/M: % v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 1.5% prior (highest since Aug 2010); M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: % v 4.5%e
- (HK) Hong Kong July Budget Balance (HKD): -16.0B v -16.7B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Business Climate Indicator: -0.21 v -0.36e v -0.53 prior; Consumer Confidence: -15.6 v -15.6e; Economic Confidence: 95.2 v 93.8e; Industrial Confidence: -7.9 v -9.6e; Services Confidence: -5.3 v -6.8e
- (EU) Euro Zone July Unemployment Rate: 12.1v 12.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Aug Advance CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e

- (GR) Greece Jun Retail Sales Y/Y Volume Y/Y: -7.8% v -2.2% prior; Retail Sales Value Y/Y: % v -3.4%e
- (BE) Belgium July Unemployment Rate: 8.9% v 8.7% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong July M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.0% v 9.7% prior

Fixed income:
- (IN) India sold an undetermined amount vs. INR170B indicated in 2019, 2023, 2032 and 2041 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

**Equities***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.60%,
FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,455, DAX -0.50% at 8,150, CAC-40 -0.40% at 3,969, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8,392, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 16,846, SMI flat at 7,763, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,640]

Market Focal Points: Portuguese equities and bonds underperform on court ruling, Greek equities outperform on banking sector profits, French retailers report better than expected earnings (L'Oreal, Hermes), KPN takeover offer in jeopardy, Lower oil prices hurt energy producers, End of the month and pre US holiday trading conditions, Upcoming US data (July personal income, Aug Chicago PMI)

By Sector
- Telecom
[KPN KPN.NL -5.2% (concerns related to America Movil's bid); Telecom Italia TIT.IT +5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [BWIN.Party BPTY.UK -12% (H1 sales below ests), D'ieteren DIE.BE -5.5% (H1 profit declined y/y); L'Oreal OR.FR +4% (record H1 op margin), Hermes RMS.FR +2.5% (H1 profits above ests), Gildemeister GIL.DE +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Staples [Danone BN.FR -1.5% (cautious outlook commentary)
- Financials [Delta Lloyd DL.NL -3% (named new Chairman); National Bank of Greece ETE.GR +6% (Reported H1 profit), Deutsche DBK.DE Bank +1.5% (broker commentary), Leg Immobilien LEG.DE +1.5% (H1 profits rose y/y)]
- Basic Materials [Recticel REC.BE -4% (H1 profits declined y/y); Arkema AKE.FR +2.5% (broker commentary), SGL Carbon SGL.DE +2% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Option OPTI.BE -12% (swung to H1 net loss)]
- Healthcare [Thrombogenics THR.BE -19% (H1 net profit declined)]
- Utilities [Gas Natural GAS.ES -1.5% (broker commentary)
- Stoxx50 Sectors (Energy -1.3%, Utilities -0.80%, Telecom -0.50%, Financials -0.40%, Consumer Cyclical -0.40%, Basic Materials -0.30%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.10%, Industrials -0.10%)

Speakers:
- ECB's Nowotny
(Austria) commented that it was too early to say what the effect of the Emerging Market selloff had on the Eurozone economy. Rate hike was excluded for the foreseeable futurebut stressed linking forward guidance to employment was not viable for the ECB
- France President Hollande stated that his country could take part in any action on Syria without the UK and he supported firm action as the chemical attack caused irreparable harm to the citizens of Syria and must not go unpunished. All options were on the table but would not take decision without the UN conditions to justify it
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) again adjusted the floating Ruble corridor upward by 5 kopecks to 32.15-39.15 (5th adjustment in Aug)
- India PM Singh stated that global factors and Fed tapering concerns had caused general weakness in INR currency (rupee). He reiterated that the govt would take steps to bring down current account deficit to below $70B and achieve FY target of 4.8% c/a deficit ratio to GDP with the medium term target seen at 2.5% of GDP

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Month end trading and upcoming US Labor Day holiday had participation in FX at a bare minimum.
The session saw a plethora of economic releases but little momentum to break established ranges in the major pairs. Risk appetite was unable to gather any force despite the non-binding rejection of the UK parliament of military action in Syria. US might now be considering a smaller unilateral military strike in Syria
- The emerging market currencies maintained a steady tone. The USD/INR was at 66.25 as India PM Singh addressed Parliament to address its current account deficit, the root of the recent rupee record weakness.
- The G20 Leader Summit will be taking place next week. The topic of Fed tapering and its potential impact on emerging markets likely to be brought up

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany): monetary policy to stay loose for the foreseeable future; Exit would be more difficult if easy policy is kept too long; Banks increasing capital is of decisive importance.
- (EU) EU Commission is considering applying bank capital rules to the so-called 'Shadow Banking' institutions - press
- (PT) Portugal's constitutional court ruled that laws related to firing public sector workers who cannot be retrained are not legal - FT
- (SY) UK House of Commons rejects PM Cameron's motion on Syria military action - financial press; Voting results 285-272
- (UK) BoE Gov Carney: Reiterates could increase stimulus if required - British press ; There has to be exceptional degree of stimulus; Monitoring the housing market.
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Failure to raise sales tax could lead to a decline in share prices and JGBs

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Spain July YTD Budget Balance: No est v -40.0B prior
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged 3.25%
- 06:00 (IT) Italy July PPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v -0.7% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal July Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal July Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.6% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Aug Consumer Confidence: No est v 68.2 prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Aug 23rd: No est v $278.8B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Aug Inflation Expectations: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 08:00 (IN) India Q2 GDP Y/Y: 4.7%e v 4.8% prior

- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa July Budget Balance (ZAR): No est v 20.1B prior
- 08:00 (ZA) South Africa July Trade Balance (ZAR): -9.0Be v -7.7B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 1.9% prior; GDP 4Qtrs Accumulated: No est v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) July Personal Income: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Personal Spending: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) July PCE Deflator M/M: 0.2%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) July PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Q2 Quarterly GDP Annualized: 1.6%e v 2.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jun GDP M/M: -0.4%e v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.6% prior
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Bullard to speak on US. Economy in Memphis
- 09:00 (CL) Chile July Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Aug ISM Milwaukee: 53.00e v 52.43 prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil July Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -12.2B prior; Primary Budget Balance: 5.0Be v 5.4B prior; Net Debt to GDP ratio: 34.1%e v 34.5% prior
- 09:45 (US) Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager: 53.0e v 52.3 prior
- 09:55 (US) Aug Final University of Michigan Confidence: 80.5e v 80.0 prelim

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.370T prior
- 10:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Erlangen
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Olpe
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia July National Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.2% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.0%e v 11.2% prior
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds Campaign Rally in Frankfurt
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina July Construction Activity M/M: No est v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1%prior
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico July YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -75.6B prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Aug Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.3 prior

Weekend
- (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble speaks at CDU Election Event, Appenweier
- 11:00 (IT) Bank of Italy's Visco speaks at Conference on Federalism in EU
- 14:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel and challenger Steinbrueck hold Election TV Debate on ZDF

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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