Monday September 2, 2013 - 03:38:09 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 02-Sep-2013 -0335 GMT
Equities are mixed.
The Dow (14810.31, -0.21%) dipped again on Friday. Charts show a near term support at current levels. This needs to hold if the Dow has to rise again towards 15300. Else, there will be danger of a decline towards 14000.
Nikkei (13484, +0.71%) has risen a bit on Yen weakness. It needs to break above near term resistance at 13600 to maintain the uptrend. Shanghai (2089, -0.42%) is down a bit but remains ranged for now. While above 2075, we may expect a rise towards 2150.
Nifty (5471.80) had risen on Rupee strength and targets a near term resistance near 5500 for now.. Need to see if this will break or not. 50-50 chances today.
Commodities are down overall.
Gold (1390) has broken support at 1400 on fresh Dollar strength. It may fall down to 1325-1350 if it does not recover from here. Silver (23.86) has fallen below 24, breaking its uptrend from levels just above 19. Longer term downtrend Resistance at 24-25 can push it down to 22-21 in the next couple of weeks.
Copper (3.2920) seems to be bouncing from Support at 3.20. This is encouraging. There can be hopes of further rise if it manages to remain above 3.25-20 now.
Nymex WTI (106.11) and Brent (112.96) have fallen. A further fall will be seen if there is no immediate strike in Syria. But both WTI and Brent have support coming up at 103 and 112 respectively. Some bounce back is possible from these Supports in the near term.
The Dollar Index (82.12) trades higher and could target 85 in the long term. Euro (1.3202) has fallen further after breaking below 1.33 last week. It could be headed down towards 1.30 in the coming days. Dollar-Yen (98.54) trades higher but has crucial Resistance at 99. At a crossroads now. Has equal chances of rising towards 103, falling towards 95 in coming weeks. Near term range 96-100.
The Pound (1.5548) has gained against the Euro (EURGBP 0.8491) but the Cross has 200-day MA coming up at 0.8480. So, the Pound could give back some gains. Long-term danger of weakness while below 1.5735. The Aussie (0.8967) trades just above super-crucial 100-mth MA Support at 0.8894. The market is still hugely Short the Aussie. Whether it will break below 0.8894 is the crucial question.
The Rand (10.2394) is trading stronger with the USDZAR coming off from 10.5079 last week. The Real (2.3820) and Rouble (33.26) are relatively weak. The Rupee (65.70) is likely to underperform its peers. Support seen near 65.25-65.00 for Dollar-Rupee.
US 10-Yr (2.79%) seems to be finding Support at 2.70% and could be headed up to the previous high of 2.92% before the 18-Sep FOMC. Whether it comes off from there or not will need to be seen.
The German-US 2-Yr (-0.17%) is dipping. The German 10-Yr (1.85%) is trading a littlow lower as compared to 1.88% last week. The Euro could be losing the yield advantage. The US-Japan 10-Yr (2.07%) is also rising taking Dollar-Yen up with it.
There will be clamour and pressure on the RBI to reduce rates following the very weak Q1 GDP data release on Friday, but it is unlikely to happen. The Indian 10-Yr GOI trades near 8.6664%.
23:20 GMT or 4:50 IST AU PMI
...Previous - 42.00
4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST IN PMI
...Previous - 50.10 -
7:15 GMT or 12:45 IST EU PMI
...Previous - 49.80
7:30 GMT or 13:00 IST CH PMI
...Previous - 57.40
8:30 GMT or 14:00 IST UK PMI
...Previous - 54.60
UK Cons Conf
...Actual -13.00 ...Previous -16
...Actual 52.2 ...Previous 50.7
...Actual3.8 % ...Previous 3.90 %
...Actual 12.10 % ...Previous 12.10 %
EU Biz Climate
...Actual 98.1 ...Previous 92.50
...Actual 4.4% ...Previous 4.8 %
...Actual -0.50 ...Previous 0.20
US Personal Income
...Actual 0.10 % ...Previous 0.27%
US PCE Price Index M/M
...Actual 0.14 % ...Previous 0.56 %
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