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Monday September 2, 2013 - 11:37:00 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite gains traction in quiet session as PMI Manufacturing data continue to suggest gradual recovery underway

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite gains traction in quiet session as PMI Manufacturing data continue to suggest gradual recovery underway
Mon, 02 Sep 2013 5:55 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
Syria:
- President Obama: Prepared to order military action and will ask for Congressional approval to attack (**Note: Congress on recess until Sept 9th)
- Still awaiting UN inspectors report on chemical weapon use while US Sec of State Kerry builds case saying hair and blood samples from Syria tested positive for use of Sarin
- Arab League wants UN and international measures against Syria over chemical attack
- Russian Foreign Min: Not convinced by US data proving chemical attack in Syria; resident Putin stated that claims that Assad regime used chemical weapons was "utter nonsense"

Other key events:
-China Aug PMI Manufacturing come in better than expected (51.0 v 50.6e)
-China Aug HSBC PMI Manufacturing confirms first growth in four months (50.1 v 50.2e
- European Manufacturing PMIs continue trend of improvement; UK data continues to outperform

***Economic Data***
- (ID) Indonesia Aug CPI M/M: 1.1% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 8.8% v 9.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.4%e
- (ID) Indonesia July Trade Balance: -$2.3B v -$0.4Be; Exports Y/Y: -6.1% v -5.4%e; Imports Y/Y: +6.5% v -3.5%e
- (JP) Japan Aug Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -6.4% v -13.5% prior
- (IN) India Aug HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 50.1 prior; first contraction in over 4 years
- (RU) Russia Aug Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 v 50.0e; 2nd month of contraction

- (IE) Ireland Investec Aug Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 v 51.0 prior; third month of expansion
- (SE) Sweden Aug PMI Manufacturing: 52.2 v 52.4
- (AU) Australia Aug Commodity Index: 94.3 v 91.8 prior; Commodity Index Y/Y: -7.3% v -9.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Aug Manufacturing PMI: 53.0 v v 49.5e
- (HU) Hungary Jun Final Trade Balance: 580.7M v 582.8M prelim
- (HU) Hungary Aug Manufacturing PMI: 51.7 v 49.0 prior
- (TR) Turkey Aug Manufacturing PMI: 50.9 v 49.8 prior
- (PL)) Poland Aug Manufacturing PMI: 52.6 v 51.7e
- (ES) Spain Aug Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 49.8 prior; first growth since April 2011 and highest reading since Mar 2011)
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Aug 30th (CHF): 320.9B v 321.6B prior
- (EU) ECB 131M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 106M prior; 70.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 66.4B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (CZ) Czech Aug Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 v 52.7e
- (CH) Swiss Aug PMI Manufacturing: 54.6 v 56.0e
- (IT) Italy Aug PMI Manufacturing: 51.3 v 50.8e; second month of growth and highest since May 2011
- (FR) France Aug Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.7 v 49.7e; confirms 18th straight month of contraction)
- (DE) German Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.8 v 52.0e; confirms second straight month of growth and highest level since July 2011
- (EU) Euro Zone Final PMI Manufacturing: 51.4 v 51.3e; confirms second month of growth and highest reading since June 2011

- (GR) Greece Aug Manufacturing PMI: 48.7 v 47.0 prior; 44-month high but its 48th straight month of contraction)
- (NO) Norway July Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.3%e
- (UK) Aug PMI Manufacturing: 57.2 v 54.8e; highest since Feb 2011
- (HK) Hong Kong July Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 9.5% v 15.0%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 8.9% v 14.2%e
- (DK) Denmark Aug PMI Survey: 59.4 v 58.2 prior
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Kagiso Manufacturing PMI: 56.5 v 51.5e

Fixed income:
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 2.43B v 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills

- Sold 1.18B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: 0.008% v 0.014% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.86x v 2.3x prior
- Sold 1.22B vs. 2.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Yield 0.062% v 0.051% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 2.0x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [Stoxx50 +1.7%, FTSE 100 +1.5% at 6,506, DAX +1.6% at 8,235, CAC-40 +1.6% at 3,997, IBEX-35 +1.7% at 8,428,, FTSE MIB +1.7% at 16,916, SMI +1.6% at 7,866, S&P 500 Futures +0.9% at 1,645

Market Focal Points:
European shares opened broadly wider on better than expected China PMI (which boosted miners) and the news that US President Obama plans to wait for a Congressional vote before a strike on Syria. Vodafone's imminent sale of its $130B stake in Verizon Wireless led the telecom sector broadly higher as other deals in the space were rumored. Stocks were relatively unmoved off their opens in light trading ahead of a US holiday.

By Sector
- Financials
[Berkeley Group BKG.UK +1.9% (reports trading in-line), Deutsche Bank DBK.DE +2.3% (will only raise dividend when capital requirements met)]
- Basic Materials [Rio Tinto +2.7% (good China PMI), BHP Billiton PLC +2.5% (China PMI), Anglo American AAL.UK +2.0% (good China PMI), Fresnillo FRES.UK -3.6% (UBS downgrade)]
- Industrials [Volkswagen Ag VOW3.DE +2.1% (may hire temp workers with company more than 3 years)]
- Telecom [Vodafone VOD.UK +4.4% (Verizon deal), Telecom Italia TIT.IT +4.8% (rumored buyout)]
- Technology [NCC Group +1.1% (to be acquired by Global Ports Investments)]
- Healthcare [Roche ROG.CH +1.2% (EU approval of new formulation of Herceptin), AstraZeneca -0.7% (Onglyza achieves primary endpoints)]

Speakers:
- SNB President Jordan reiterated view that CHF currency (Franc) remains overvalued;
any rise in value would have consequences. He added that would not fine-tune monetary policy but had not excluded adjusting policy
- BOE Q2 Funding for Lending Scheme Report (FLS): Net lending +1.6B q/q; Total Outstanding FLS Draw downs at 17.6B
- Basel regulators will ease global derivatives margin rule to avoid harming global economy; new initial margin will be phased over 4-years from 2015
- Russian Foreign Min: Not convinced by US data proving chemical attack in Syria; Invite to US President Obama remained open, hopes he uses it
- Russia Aug oil production: 10.52M bpd (Post-Soviet record) v 10.43M bpd prior - Russia energy ministry
- Moody's: Outlook on South Africa banking sector remains negative
- Japan Vice Fin Obuchi: Japan capital spending is in a recovery

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite gained some traction in a quiet session aided by encouraging data from China and a pause in any imminent attack on Syria by the US.

- The EUR/USD began Sept still locked within the 250bps Aug trading range but just marginally holding onto the 1.32 ahead of the NY morning.
- The GBP/USD was higher by 80 pips edging towards the 1.56 handle after the PMI Manufacturing hit an 18-month high. M&A flows also said to help the GBP on news that Verizon and Vodafone finally reached an agreement on a 130B deal rgarding the disposal of Vodafone's US group
- The USD/JPY pair was at 1-month highs holding above 99 level. Japan Econ Min Amari commented on results of the seven panel sessions regarding the planned sales tax increase: Most experts back sales tax increase but urged an increase in stimulus to cushion the economic blow

Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) China Stats Bureau (NBS) trimmed its 2012 GDP growth to 7.7% from 7.8% (**Note: Official growth target was 7.5%)
- (PT) Portugal studying deeper wage cuts for some govt workers
- (IT) Former PM Berlusconi said to threaten to topple Letta govt if Democratic Party votes to expel him from the Senate
- (IT) Italy becomes first country to institute a tax against high-speed trading today
- (IT) Italy PM Letta: Will do everything possible to avoid sales tax increase
- (PT) Portugal PM Coelho: Will not limit the power of Portugal's constitutional court despite its 3rd rejection of government austerity plans in 13 months
- (GR) German Chancellor Merkel: Reiterates view that there may be a need for a new Greece bailout program

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CZ) Czech Aug Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -27.6B prior
- (RU) Russia Aug Reserve Fund: No est v $85.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $86.9B prior
- (RO) Romania Aug International Reserves: No est v $36.7B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Aug Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Aug Budget Balance: No est v -8.8B prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 07:30 (FR) ECB's Coeure (France) on OMT bond buying program
- 08:00 (EU) NATO chief Rasmussen press conference
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.6B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Aug PMI Manufacturing: No est v 48.5 prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.50%
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico July Total Remittances: $1.8Be v $2.0B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Aug New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior
- 12:00 (IS) Iceland Q2 Current Account (ISK): No est v 6.0B prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Aug IMEF Manufacturing Index: 50.0e v 48.5 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 51.1 prior
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Aug Monthly Trade Balance: +$1.5Be v -$1.9B prior; Total Exports: $21.5Be v $20.8B prior; Total Imports: $20.0Be v $22.7B prior
- 14:15 (DE) (DE) German SPD chief and candidate Steinbrck in debate
- 00:30 (AU) RBA Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Cash Rate Target unchanged at 2.50%

 

 

 

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