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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Alleged test launch of ballistic missiles in Mediterranean spooks markets; UK continues string of good data

 

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Alleged test launch of ballistic missiles in Mediterranean spooks markets; UK continues string of good data
Tue, 03 Sep 2013 5:44 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Alleged test launch of ballistic missiles in Mediterranean causes market jitters

- Australia's RBA leaves Cash target R unchanged as expected; monetary policy remains appropriate; AUD still high but may decline over time; CPI seen consistent with target in medium term
- China Aug Non-Manufacturing PMI registers its 18th straight reading in growth territory (53.9 vs. 54.1 prior)
-Verizon agreed to buy Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless for $130B; completion expected in Q1 2014; Vodafone to return $84B to shareholders in Verizon stock and cash
- Nokia to sell its Devices & Services business to Microsoft for 5.4B cash; Nokia CEO Elop stepping aside to avoid conflict of interest (is a candidate for Microsoft CEO)
- UK continues its string of data beats. Aug PMI Construction registers its 4th straight month of expansion territory and highest reading since Sept 2007

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 1.7%e

- (CZ) Czech Q2 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.2%e
- (ES) Spain Aug Net Unemployment M/M: -0.03K v +7.5Ke; 6th straight monthly decline
- (TR) Turkey Aug CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.1%e
- (TR) Turkey Aug PPI M/M: 0.0 v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.6% prior
- (EU) ECB 121M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 131M prior; 80.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 70.6B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (UK) Aug PMI Construction: 59.1 v 56.9e; 4th straight month in expansion territory and highest reading since Sept 2007
- (EU) Euro Zone July PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1%e
- (ZA) South Africa SACCI Business Confidence: 90.5 v 90.7 prior

Fixed income:
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA): sold total 1.54B vs. 1.65B indicated in 2023 and 2044 RAGB bonds
- Sold 880M in 1.75% 2023 RAGB; Avg Yield: 2.648% v 2.072% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.01x v 2.24x prior
- Sold 770M in 3.15% 2044 Jun RAGB; Avg Yield: 3.009% v 2.88% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 1.7x prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.13B vs. 875M indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.20% v 4.20% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.89x v 1.77x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF768.7M in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.059% v -0.044% prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B vs. NOK4.0B indicated in 3.75% 2021 bonds; Yield: 2.92% v 2.49% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 95.6B in 7-day Main Refi Tender at fixed 0.50% vs. 97Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 3.75% v 3.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.55x v 1.97x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 1.38B vs. 1.6B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sells 600M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.061% v +0.034% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.03x v 3.29x prior
- Sells 780M in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: +0.093% v +0.083% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.72x v 2.71x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 1.5B in 0.125% Inflation-linked 2024 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.159% v -0.758% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.87x v 1.95x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
Indices [Stoxx50 -0.50%, FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,476, DAX -0.70% at 8,190, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,978, IBEX-35 -0.20%, at 8,406, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 16,891, SMI -0.10% at 7,882, S&P 500 Futures +0.70% at 1,643]

Market Focal Points: Gains in Asia, Telecom-related M&A (Nokia, Vodafone), Events in Syria, Focus remains on the later this week release US monthly payrolls and central bank decisions (ECB, BoE),

By Sector
- Consumer
Discretionary [Dufry DUFN.CH+3.5% (contract in Brazil)]
- Consumer Staples [Associated British Foods ABF.UK +1.5% (broker commentary); Suedzucker SZU.DE -5.5% (broker commentary)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ThyssenKrupp TKA.DE -2% (renewed concerns related to sale of Steel Americas assets), Fresnillo FRES.UK-1% (broker commentary)
- Industrials [Latecoere LAT.FR +2.5% (contract award); DS Smith SMDS.UK -2% (reaffirmed targets)]
- Telecom [Nokia NOK1V.FI +40% (To sell devices/services unit to Microsoft), Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR +8% (industry consolidation); Vodafone VOD.UK -1% (confirmed agreement with Verizon)]
- Technology [STMicroelectronics STM.FR +2.5% (Nokia transaction)]
- Stoxx50 movers [Telecom +1.2%; Financials -0.80%, Consumer Cyclical -0.6%, Technology -0.60%, Energy -0.50%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.40%, Basic Materials -0.40%, Utilities -0.30%, Industrials -0.20%]

Speakers:
- Russia Defense Ministry releases news that they have detected the launch of 2 ballistic missiles in the Mediterranea
n
- Russia Embassy in Syria: No signs of a missle attack or explosions in Damascus after the ballistic launches detected
- Israel's Military said that it was not aware of any missile launch in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Spain Econ Min de Guindos: Aug jobless rate show that the market was stabilizing and saw slightly positive growth in H2 as leading indicators showing positive signs
- German Chancellor Merkel: G20 to seek a joint position on Syria but unlikely to achieve this; Reiterates that Germany will not take part in Syria military action but chemical attack needs a response as no doubt international law was broken
- OECD Interim Economic Assessment of the major economies: Cut US and China GDP growth forecasts; raises UK, France and Germany outlook
- OECD chief Gurria: UK and Europe should keep in place very accommodative policies. He saw the Fed tapering as inevitable and a sign of strength
- China Premier Li Keqiang: confident to achieve 2013 GDP target at 7.5%
- Taiwan announced measures to booster its equity markets in which it eased rules on governing intraday trading, short-sales and stock brokerages proprietary trading
- S&P: Very important to address policy to avert an Asian crisis. Reiterated it saw more than 33% chance for India's rating downgrade in 2 years.
- Morgan Stanley cuts 2013 and 2014 global growth outlook with 2013 cut to 2.9% from 3.1% prior and 2-14 cut to 3.5% from 3.9% prior

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- Risk appetite took a direct hit midsession after reports of two ballistic missile launch detected in the Mediterranean by the Russian news organizations spark concerns over Syria. Oil and gold reversed earlier losses as a result.
- Euro began the session hitting 5-week lows below the 1.3170 level as dealers noted the currency failed to benefit from the improvement in the global risk environment. The EUR/USD appeared set to test the 200 and 100 DMA in the 1.3145 and 1.3135 areas
- The GBP currency was firmer as UK continued its string of data beats. Aug PMI Construction registers its 4th straight month of expansion territory and highest reading since Sept 2007. GBP/USD tested above the 1.56 level as a result of the data and hit 3 month high against the Euro at 0.8444
- India INR currency weakens by over 3% in session, pair trades above 68.00 after its upper house of parliament approved $20B legislation to distribute subsidized wheat and rice to 800M people which might result in India missing fiscal goals. S&P maintained its negative outlook on the country

Political/In the Papers:
- (DE) German official: G20 Leader Summit to discuss budget consolidation; expects a statement on consolidation at G20; Does not seen any binding goals on debt or deficits at Leader Summit; G20 to cite risks of expansive monetary; to discuss emerging market volatility and take into account how to exit from expansive monetary policies
- (GR) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Possible new Greece aid to be conditional - letter to Parliament; Greece market funding ability to be considered in 2014
- (UK) Verizon formally reached agreement to acquire Vodafone 45% interest in Verizone Wireless for $130B; Authorizes 2.9% dividend increase to $0.53/shr (implied yield 4.5%
- Nokia: Microsoft to acquire Nokia Devices & Services unit and license certain Nokia patents for 5.44B in cash
- (CN) Goldman Sachs raised China 2013 GDP forecast to 7.6% from 7.4% prior forecast; CPI raised to 2.5% from 2.4% prior
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: JPY decline is a side effect of govt policies, primary aim is to end deflation
- (JP) BOJ to consider upgrading its economic assessment at the upcoming policy meeting this week - Nikkei News

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici wit EU's Barnier
- (SE) Euromoney Sweden Capital Markets Forum
- (EU) Chia President Xi in central Asia/Europe trip
- (US) Sec of State Kerry and Defense Sec Hagel testify on Syria
- (IL) Israel Aug Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $79.1B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q3 BER Business Confidence: No est v 48 prior
- 06:00 EU) OECD July annual inflation: No est v 1.8% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2.5B in 3-month bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP ; to drain 190.5B
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil July Industrial Production M/M: -1.3%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 3.1% prior
- 08:58 (US) Aug Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 54.0e v 53.9 prelim
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore Aug Purchasing Managers Index: 51.9e v 51.8 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 50.5e v 50.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Aug ISM Manufacturing: 54.0e v 55.4 prior; ISM Prices Paid: 51.6e v 49.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) July Construction Spending M/M: +0.4%e v -0.6% prior

- 10:00 (US) Sept IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.0e v 45.1 prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Aug Foreign Reserves (DKK): 491.9Be v 491.9 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (ES) Spain Foreign Min Margallo speaks on Gibraltar in Parliament
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $4.25-5.25B in notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $55B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds campaign rally in Finsterwalde
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q2 Q/Q: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: no est v 2.5% prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Aug HSBC/Markit Services PMI: No est v 51.3 prior

 

 

 

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